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101 Cards in this Set

  • Front
  • Back
A peak is:
the beginning of a recession
The great recession is the worst recession since the great depression if we judge it by
its duration
the highest rate of unemployment
the change in real GDP
Expansionary Gap
Y>Y*

Positive output gap where actual output is higher that potential output
According to the Okun’s Law, a 4 percentage point increase in the output gap corresponds to:
A 2 percentage point increase in cyclical unemployment
A main assumption of the keynesian theory is that, in the short run:
producers meet demand at existing prices
International Trade
Import and Export % to GDP
Exports 12% GDP
Imports 17%
Current Trade deficit:
3.4% of the GDP
US trade balance
Since the 1960s imported more
-- 60s- exports >imports
-- 70s + imports>exports (trade deficit has been growing larger)
Capital inflows
are purchases of domestic assets by foreign households and firms
Net Capital inflows
capital inflows – capital outflows
Okun's Law
1% cyclical unemployment = 2% output gap
(all in relation to potential output)
natural unemployment relates to
structural and frictional
not cyclical
menu costs
Keynesian theory -- short run, producers meet demand at existing prices
Planned Aggregate Expenditure
total planned spending on final goods and services
A firm's actual investment will exceed it's planned investment when
it sells LESS than planned
What is the largest component of Aggregate Expenditure?
Consumption
marginal propensity to consume definition
the additional consumption when disposable income rises.
(between 0 and 1)
Autonomous Consumption
Consumption spending that is not related to the level of disposable income.
Autonomous Expenditure
Portion of PAE that's not related to output
Stabilization Policies
Government Policies that are used to affect PAE (eliminate output gaps)
marginal propensity to consume equation
∆C/(∆Y-∆T)
Government Expenditure Multiplier Equation
∆Gov.Expenditure/(1-mpc)
The tax multiplier is _________ and equals______.
Negative; -MPC/(1-MPC)
How do you increase output without increasing the deficit?
Also increase taxes and spending
Planned Aggregate Expenditure Equation
PAE= [C - mpc * T + I^p + G + NX] + mpc * Y
Consumption Function
C = Ĉ+ mpc(y-t)
Following an expansionary fiscal policy, autonomous expenditure ______ and the planned aggregate expenditure line __________.
increase; shifts up.
To close a recessionary gap, the government conducts __________.
an expansionary fiscal policy
an expansionary monetary policy
An increase in planned aggregate expenditure can come from:
an increase in autonomous consumption
an increase in output
According to the Keynesian cross, when planned aggregate expenditure increase, output:
output increases in the short run.
A country that exhibits a trade deficit has at the same time:
net capital inflows
From the point of a US resident, purchasing a Japanese bond is equivalent to:
lending to Japan
A country that defaults on its debt is facing ________which results in _________
an increase in its interest rate, less net capital inflows
Investment Equation
S+KI=I
Savings + Net Inflows = Investment
Net Export Equation
NX+KI=0
Net Exports + Net Inflow = 0
Federal government deficits are:
often correlated with trade deficits
The supply of money is determined by
The FED
the demand for money is determined by
economic agents who want to make transactions
The demand for money is ___+/-___ related to real income and __+/-___ related to prices
positively; positively
The demand for money is ____+/-___ related to the NOMINAL interest rate
Negatively
The demand for money is ____+/-___ related to the REAL interest rate
Not at all!
Portfolio Allocation Decision
Decisions about the forms in which to hold ones wealth
the demand for money is __+/-__ related to the opportunity cost of holding money
Negatively!!
(inverse)
The money market equilibrium
when the demand for money equals the supply of money.
When the Fed conducts an _________, the ___________ decreases and __________.
open market purchase; nominal interest rate; money supply and money demand increase.
Fisher effect
Nominal interest rates are high when inflation is high
low when inflation is low
The FED deals with
NOMINAL
In the short run, according to the Keynesian theory, the Fed influences the real economy through:
Investment
The Fed fights a recession using ____________ and an expansion using _________ .
Expansionary monetary policy; contractionary monetary policy.
To fight an expansion, the Fed _____________ which results in __________ and __________
Increases the interest rate; a decrease in investment; a decrease in PAE.
To fight a recession, the Fed ___________ which results in ____________in the_________.
increases the money supply; higher investment and output; short run.
When the Fed fights a recession, the interest rate __________ and the PAE curve_______.
Decreases; shifts down
When the Fed fights an expansion, monetary policy aims at _____________ to __________ the PAE curve ________.
Reducing investment; shift; down
Which of the following was instituted to prevent depositors from rushing to withdraw their deposits from fear that their bank will go bankrupt?
The Federal Deposit insurance
The Federal Open Market Committee makes decisions about
monetary policy
Why International Capital Flows?
1. Trade Imbalances
2. Efficient Allocation of Savings
US trade deficit
In 2004, the trade deficit was 5.2% of GDP
Record high trade deficit in 2006
Inflation ______ during business cycles
DECREASES
Output gap
WHEN NEGATIVE ECONOMY IN EXPANSION
WHEN POSITIVE ECONOMY IN RECESSION
trough
the end of a recession
Low point of the business cycle
The Great Recession numbers (now)
Dates (peak-through)
• Start: December 2007
• End: June 2009

Duration: 18 months
Highest Unemployment: 10.2% July 2010
Change in Real GDP: -4.1%
wealth effect
the tendency of changes in asset prices to affect household's wealth and this consumption spending
Induced expenditure
the part of spending that depends on output (Y)
Fiscal Policy v. Monetary Policy
Fiscal policy uses changes in government spending, transfers, or taxes
Monetary policy uses changes in the money supply
Taxes and Transfers
Planned aggregate expenditures are affected by taxes and transfers

The effect is indirect, channeled through the effects on disposable income
Lower taxes or higher transfers increase disposable income
Increases in disposable income lead to higher C
LOW income earner tend to have HIGH MPC
HIGH income earners have LOW MPC
Government deficit
the difference between government spending and net taxes, (G – T)
Keynsian Theory tells us:
better to use gov expenditure than taxes to lower the deficit
Automatic stabilizers
increase government spending or decrease taxes when real output declines

Built into laws so no decision is required
primary objective of the Fed
to maintain a low and stable inflation rate
•When inflation increases, the Fed
increases the nominal interest rate which, in turn, increases real interest rates

increases interest rate because there is a risk of inflation
When output is ABOVE potential, actual inflation is
above expected inflation
Inflation Shock
a sudden change in the normal behavior of inflation
sudden rise in the price of oil increases prices of
Gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, heating oil
Goods made with oil (synthetic rubber, plastics, etc.)
OPEC reduced supplies in 1973
price of oil quadrupled
Food shortages occurred at the same time
Sharp increase in inflation in 1974
Long-run equilibrium
occurs at the intersection of
o Aggregate demand
o Aggregate supply and
o Long-run aggregate supply
Short-run equilibrium
occurs when there is either an expansionary or a recessionary gap
intersection of
o Aggregate demand
o Aggregate supply

NOT AT Long-run aggregate supply!
• In the long-run the economy tends
to be self-correcting
Causes of inflation
1. Expansionary gap
2. Price shock (short-term)
Aggregate supply shock
either an inflation shock or a shock to potential output
Greenspan, 1996
With low unemployment, price and wage inflation were lower than previously at full employment

Greenspan believed the economy could continue to grow without increasing inflation

Correct analysis AT THE TIME
The main shortcoming of the basic Keynesian model is that it does not explain.
inflation
Which of the following will NOT shift the aggregate demand curve?
an increase in aggregate supply
Which of the following WILL shift the aggregate demand curve?
an increase in autonomous consumption
an increase in taxes
an increase in net exports
a change in the Fed's monetary policy
The tendency for inflation to change relatively slowly is sometimes called
inflation inertia
Which of the following is a potential source of inflation?
excessive aggregate demand
inflation shock
aggregate supply shock
a shock to potential output
An increase in government expenditure associated with military buildup will cause
AD to shift right.
An example of a shock to the SRAS curve is:
An oil shock
An example of a shock to the LRAS curve is:
An earthquake
Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, suppose that an increase in military spending causes an expansionary gap. What is true?
Inflation increase in the short run
Government spending increase in the short run
Output increases in the short run
PAE increase in the short run
Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, suppose that an increase in military spending causes an expansionary gap. What is true?
Inflation increases in the long run
Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the long run, deficits _________ investment.
Crowd-out
Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the long run, a change in the monetary policy reaction function is
Neutral, meaning that it does not affect real variables.
Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the short run, an oil shock (sudden increase in oil prices)
Increases inflation and decreases output
Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the long run, an oil shock (sudden increase in oil prices)
Affects neither inflation nor output
Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the short run, a hurricane which leads to large destruction
Increases inflation and decreases potential output
Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the long run, a hurricane which leads to large destruction
Increases inflation and decreases potential output
Stagflation refers to a situation that combines
Inflation and recession
Suppose the economy suffers stagflation due to an oil shock. The Fed decides to change its monetary policy reaction function to tighten monetary policy. In the short run, this:
decreases inflation and decreases output
Following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011, if the Japanese government decides to cut taxes to help businesses and households. In the long run, this:
increases inflation and leaves output unchanged
Following an expansionary fiscal policy, a government can prevent inflation from increasing by:
increasing investments in projects that potentially increase the productive capacity of the economy