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101 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
A peak is:
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the beginning of a recession
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The great recession is the worst recession since the great depression if we judge it by
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its duration
the highest rate of unemployment the change in real GDP |
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Expansionary Gap
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Y>Y*
Positive output gap where actual output is higher that potential output |
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According to the Okun’s Law, a 4 percentage point increase in the output gap corresponds to:
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A 2 percentage point increase in cyclical unemployment
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A main assumption of the keynesian theory is that, in the short run:
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producers meet demand at existing prices
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International Trade
Import and Export % to GDP |
Exports 12% GDP
Imports 17% |
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Current Trade deficit:
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3.4% of the GDP
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US trade balance
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Since the 1960s imported more
-- 60s- exports >imports -- 70s + imports>exports (trade deficit has been growing larger) |
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Capital inflows
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are purchases of domestic assets by foreign households and firms
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Net Capital inflows
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capital inflows – capital outflows
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Okun's Law
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1% cyclical unemployment = 2% output gap
(all in relation to potential output) |
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natural unemployment relates to
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structural and frictional
not cyclical |
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menu costs
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Keynesian theory -- short run, producers meet demand at existing prices
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Planned Aggregate Expenditure
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total planned spending on final goods and services
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A firm's actual investment will exceed it's planned investment when
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it sells LESS than planned
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What is the largest component of Aggregate Expenditure?
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Consumption
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marginal propensity to consume definition
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the additional consumption when disposable income rises.
(between 0 and 1) |
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Autonomous Consumption
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Consumption spending that is not related to the level of disposable income.
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Autonomous Expenditure
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Portion of PAE that's not related to output
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Stabilization Policies
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Government Policies that are used to affect PAE (eliminate output gaps)
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marginal propensity to consume equation
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∆C/(∆Y-∆T)
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Government Expenditure Multiplier Equation
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∆Gov.Expenditure/(1-mpc)
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The tax multiplier is _________ and equals______.
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Negative; -MPC/(1-MPC)
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How do you increase output without increasing the deficit?
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Also increase taxes and spending
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Planned Aggregate Expenditure Equation
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PAE= [C - mpc * T + I^p + G + NX] + mpc * Y
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Consumption Function
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C = Ĉ+ mpc(y-t)
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Following an expansionary fiscal policy, autonomous expenditure ______ and the planned aggregate expenditure line __________.
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increase; shifts up.
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To close a recessionary gap, the government conducts __________.
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an expansionary fiscal policy
an expansionary monetary policy |
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An increase in planned aggregate expenditure can come from:
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an increase in autonomous consumption
an increase in output |
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According to the Keynesian cross, when planned aggregate expenditure increase, output:
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output increases in the short run.
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A country that exhibits a trade deficit has at the same time:
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net capital inflows
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From the point of a US resident, purchasing a Japanese bond is equivalent to:
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lending to Japan
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A country that defaults on its debt is facing ________which results in _________
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an increase in its interest rate, less net capital inflows
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Investment Equation
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S+KI=I
Savings + Net Inflows = Investment |
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Net Export Equation
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NX+KI=0
Net Exports + Net Inflow = 0 |
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Federal government deficits are:
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often correlated with trade deficits
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The supply of money is determined by
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The FED
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the demand for money is determined by
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economic agents who want to make transactions
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The demand for money is ___+/-___ related to real income and __+/-___ related to prices
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positively; positively
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The demand for money is ____+/-___ related to the NOMINAL interest rate
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Negatively
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The demand for money is ____+/-___ related to the REAL interest rate
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Not at all!
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Portfolio Allocation Decision
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Decisions about the forms in which to hold ones wealth
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the demand for money is __+/-__ related to the opportunity cost of holding money
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Negatively!!
(inverse) |
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The money market equilibrium
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when the demand for money equals the supply of money.
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When the Fed conducts an _________, the ___________ decreases and __________.
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open market purchase; nominal interest rate; money supply and money demand increase.
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Fisher effect
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Nominal interest rates are high when inflation is high
low when inflation is low |
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The FED deals with
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NOMINAL
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In the short run, according to the Keynesian theory, the Fed influences the real economy through:
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Investment
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The Fed fights a recession using ____________ and an expansion using _________ .
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Expansionary monetary policy; contractionary monetary policy.
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To fight an expansion, the Fed _____________ which results in __________ and __________
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Increases the interest rate; a decrease in investment; a decrease in PAE.
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To fight a recession, the Fed ___________ which results in ____________in the_________.
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increases the money supply; higher investment and output; short run.
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When the Fed fights a recession, the interest rate __________ and the PAE curve_______.
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Decreases; shifts down
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When the Fed fights an expansion, monetary policy aims at _____________ to __________ the PAE curve ________.
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Reducing investment; shift; down
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Which of the following was instituted to prevent depositors from rushing to withdraw their deposits from fear that their bank will go bankrupt?
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The Federal Deposit insurance
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The Federal Open Market Committee makes decisions about
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monetary policy
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Why International Capital Flows?
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1. Trade Imbalances
2. Efficient Allocation of Savings |
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US trade deficit
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In 2004, the trade deficit was 5.2% of GDP
Record high trade deficit in 2006 |
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Inflation ______ during business cycles
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DECREASES
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Output gap
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WHEN NEGATIVE ECONOMY IN EXPANSION
WHEN POSITIVE ECONOMY IN RECESSION |
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trough
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the end of a recession
Low point of the business cycle |
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The Great Recession numbers (now)
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Dates (peak-through)
• Start: December 2007 • End: June 2009 Duration: 18 months Highest Unemployment: 10.2% July 2010 Change in Real GDP: -4.1% |
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wealth effect
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the tendency of changes in asset prices to affect household's wealth and this consumption spending
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Induced expenditure
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the part of spending that depends on output (Y)
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Fiscal Policy v. Monetary Policy
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Fiscal policy uses changes in government spending, transfers, or taxes
Monetary policy uses changes in the money supply |
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Taxes and Transfers
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Planned aggregate expenditures are affected by taxes and transfers
The effect is indirect, channeled through the effects on disposable income Lower taxes or higher transfers increase disposable income Increases in disposable income lead to higher C |
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LOW income earner tend to have HIGH MPC
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HIGH income earners have LOW MPC
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Government deficit
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the difference between government spending and net taxes, (G – T)
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Keynsian Theory tells us:
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better to use gov expenditure than taxes to lower the deficit
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Automatic stabilizers
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increase government spending or decrease taxes when real output declines
Built into laws so no decision is required |
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primary objective of the Fed
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to maintain a low and stable inflation rate
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•When inflation increases, the Fed
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increases the nominal interest rate which, in turn, increases real interest rates
increases interest rate because there is a risk of inflation |
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When output is ABOVE potential, actual inflation is
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above expected inflation
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Inflation Shock
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a sudden change in the normal behavior of inflation
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sudden rise in the price of oil increases prices of
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Gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, heating oil
Goods made with oil (synthetic rubber, plastics, etc.) |
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OPEC reduced supplies in 1973
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price of oil quadrupled
Food shortages occurred at the same time Sharp increase in inflation in 1974 |
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Long-run equilibrium
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occurs at the intersection of
o Aggregate demand o Aggregate supply and o Long-run aggregate supply |
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Short-run equilibrium
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occurs when there is either an expansionary or a recessionary gap
intersection of o Aggregate demand o Aggregate supply NOT AT Long-run aggregate supply! |
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• In the long-run the economy tends
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to be self-correcting
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Causes of inflation
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1. Expansionary gap
2. Price shock (short-term) |
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Aggregate supply shock
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either an inflation shock or a shock to potential output
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Greenspan, 1996
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With low unemployment, price and wage inflation were lower than previously at full employment
Greenspan believed the economy could continue to grow without increasing inflation Correct analysis AT THE TIME |
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The main shortcoming of the basic Keynesian model is that it does not explain.
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inflation
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Which of the following will NOT shift the aggregate demand curve?
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an increase in aggregate supply
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Which of the following WILL shift the aggregate demand curve?
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an increase in autonomous consumption
an increase in taxes an increase in net exports a change in the Fed's monetary policy |
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The tendency for inflation to change relatively slowly is sometimes called
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inflation inertia
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Which of the following is a potential source of inflation?
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excessive aggregate demand
inflation shock aggregate supply shock a shock to potential output |
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An increase in government expenditure associated with military buildup will cause
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AD to shift right.
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An example of a shock to the SRAS curve is:
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An oil shock
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An example of a shock to the LRAS curve is:
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An earthquake
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Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, suppose that an increase in military spending causes an expansionary gap. What is true?
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Inflation increase in the short run
Government spending increase in the short run Output increases in the short run PAE increase in the short run |
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Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, suppose that an increase in military spending causes an expansionary gap. What is true?
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Inflation increases in the long run
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Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the long run, deficits _________ investment.
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Crowd-out
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Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the long run, a change in the monetary policy reaction function is
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Neutral, meaning that it does not affect real variables.
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Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the short run, an oil shock (sudden increase in oil prices)
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Increases inflation and decreases output
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Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the long run, an oil shock (sudden increase in oil prices)
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Affects neither inflation nor output
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Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the short run, a hurricane which leads to large destruction
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Increases inflation and decreases potential output
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Starting from a situation where the economy produces at its potential level, according to the AD-AS model, in the long run, a hurricane which leads to large destruction
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Increases inflation and decreases potential output
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Stagflation refers to a situation that combines
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Inflation and recession
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Suppose the economy suffers stagflation due to an oil shock. The Fed decides to change its monetary policy reaction function to tighten monetary policy. In the short run, this:
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decreases inflation and decreases output
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Following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami of 2011, if the Japanese government decides to cut taxes to help businesses and households. In the long run, this:
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increases inflation and leaves output unchanged
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Following an expansionary fiscal policy, a government can prevent inflation from increasing by:
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increasing investments in projects that potentially increase the productive capacity of the economy
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