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17 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Perceptual System
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recognizes and understands immediate stimuli from the environment
such as sound and light |
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Conscious System
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a slow but sophisticated process we use for understanding conceptual issues
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Intuitive System
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occupies a position btwn the perceptual and reasoning systems
it shares many of the properties of perception, but just like reasoning it deals w/ abstract concepts |
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Bayes Rule
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The probability of a hypothesis h being true, conditional on observing i
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Bayes Rule Formula
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Prob[hji ] =
number of ways i and h can both be true/number of ways i can be true overall = probability that i and h are both true/probability that i is true |
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Judgment Heuristic
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An informal algorithm that generates an approximate answer to a problm quickly.
It's the cnetral component of intuitive statistical thinking |
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Heuristics
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speed up/make possible cognition b/c they are shortcuts
usually produce incorrect answers, or "biases" |
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Conjunction Fallacy in Rep. Heurisitic
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Ex. People think are are less of one thing than that thing plus another thing. (bank teller vs bank teller and feminist)
violation of conjunction rule, has a strong effect. |
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Representativeness Heuristic
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People use similarity or representativeness as a proxy for probabilistic thinking.
associate available information to form a "picture" important to random events |
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Base-Rate Neglect
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Probability judgment that do not sufficiently take into account the overall frequency (base rate) of an event in a population
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Gambler's fallacy
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The false belief that ina sequence of independent draws from a distribution, an outcome that has not occurred for a while is more likely to come up on the nxt draw
(due for a blackjack, or red to come up after 4 blacks on roulette) more apparent when person knows the distribution and is confident |
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Hot-Hand Fallacy
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The false exaggerated belief that a person's performance varies systematically over the short run
more apparent when person doesnt know distribution |
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quasi-Bayesian approach
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assume that people are largely rational, but posit a particular form of mistake
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Availability Heuristic
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people assess the frequency of a class or the probability of an event by the ease w/ which instance or occurrences can be brought to mind
rehearsal: media help bring memories to mind familiarity: things that are familiar or personally important are easier to recall |
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Anchoring/Adjustment Heuristic
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People often try to answer a question by starting at some first-pass guess based on memory or the environment, and then adjusting that guess until they are satisfied w/ the answer
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Incomplete Debiasing
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anchoring might be a result
ex. smear campaigns when told A is true, and A leads to X then told A isnt true, will believe more in X than if she never heard A is false |
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Confirmatory Bias
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People selectively ignore/misread information as supporting initial hypothesis
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