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52 Cards in this Set

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Realist: A promise will be more credible if a nation states its reputation for resolve -for living up to its word (Schelling, the benefits of living up to the promise must be greater than the costs of carrying ou the threat

Constructivist: Mercer argues reputations for resolve that are valuable acress situations do not form, dispositional attribution & situational attribution, when countries are dealing w/ eachother there is never a complete trust because they are still dealing w/ others.
Kim Jong Il
Leader of North Korea. View of Bush threat to get tough, view of Bush offer of improved relations. Did not have this desired effect, reputation does not work always the way many leaders believe that it does.
Analogies Shaping Policy Toward Iraq
Japan is optimisitc analogy: march in, occupy, and make a democrac.
Vietnam Analogy: pull out now...why wait?
Analogies (Analogical Explanation)
Since calculating costs and benefits of alternative actions is dificult, we tend to rely on historical analogies to figure out stakes, calculate risks, and perscribe action. When a situation is linked to an analogy that favors caution, leaders will be cautious: when a situation is linked to an anology that favors showing resolve leaders are more likely to move in that direction.
Analogies Shaping Policy Toward North Korea
Iraq! We can't get tough and threaten them w/ military force. Libya, US refused to deal w/ them because they were developing nuclear weapons. US made diplomatic deals and Libya allowed us to dismantle their nuclear program.
Most Favored Nation Principle
Means that the receiving nation will be granted all trade advantages, such as low tariffs that any third nation also receives. In effect, having MFN status means that one's nation will not be treated worse than anyone else's nation, as reflected by the American term. If a country offers a good deal to the US we will lower our taxes to them.
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Mechanism for reducing trade barriers and preventing cheating. GATT ensures that a country must offer the same trade tariffs for everyone, lowering tarifs and trade barriers for everyone else in the world.
Hegemonic Stability Theory
IN anarchy, nations worry about relative gains, and so will find it very difficult to cooperate in providing public goods, like LIEO (Greico). The only reason that the liberal world order has worked was b/c the US has been big enough and willing to make and enforce these rules.
Neoliberal Institutionalist View
International institutions help sustain cooperation by reducing transaction costs, creating issue-linkages, and generating iterated games. Liberal order will not break down because of rules.
Iterated Games
Repeated interations, that build trust between international relations.
"The Blue Team"- China Hawks
Paul Wolfowitz, Michael Pillsbury, John Bolton, Doug Feith. Emergence of Relative Gains Thinking About China: “China’s economic vision is fundamentally mercantilist. The principle aim is not the expansion o fthe individual prosperity and freedom but instead the accumulation of national power by means of promoting exports abroad, protectionism at home, and mandatory transfers of technology and know-how to Chinese enterprises as the price for limited access to China’s market. Such practices…have allowed China to accumulate hard currency with which to buy an array of Russian weaponry…”
Yen Fixing
In 1990s, China fixed the yen to the USD. There is debate over them keeping the currency artificially cheap, which is making it cheaper for them to export. They have a new currency system since 2005, where there is gradual appreciation of currency @ 2% a year, but US thinks this is still WAY too undervalued by about 27%.
Democratic Peace Theory
Democracies never make war on eachother. There is evidence of a remarkable correlation. Competeing theories about the causes of democratic peace: The Democratic Peace in Asia, The Export-led Peace in Asia.
Liberal/Constructivist Explanation: Norms, cultures that permit compromise will come to apply across international boundaries.
Realist Explanation: Information. 2 democratic states w/ perfect info about eachother's constraints, will not go to war.
Tianamen Square Incident 1989
Students and protestors openly criticizing the government – led to direct confrontation between the people and the government (built a Goddess of Democracy – like Statue of Liberty). Americans realised that the Chinese were willing to use force against their own people. Can’t really attribute this to norms: they attacked their own people; nor to information: no one predicted this would happen.
Export-Led Peace
- 1978 China turned toward an export-led strategy under Deng Xiaoping: special economic zones; focus on attracting foreign investment; increase in export share of economy until they account for 30% of nominal GDP today! 2/3 of growth coming from increasing exports (10% growth in GDP). Uriu suggests that all of this tremendous focus on exports has made Asia into a 'zone of amity'. Except for NK, it exports almost nothing and has no economic stake in getting along w/ neighbors.
E.Asia Economic Growth Model
Asian Economical Characteristics: high domestic savings, small state (state not very intrusive in running businesses), possibilities for rapid catch-up growth (starting behind – lots of technologies to borrow).
Government Coordination:fixed, low interest rates; rigid regulations on bank operations; limits on foreign borrowing; and capital controls (gov regulations saying that you cannot move money in and out of the country [electronically or physically] – making foreigners not want to invest anything, leaving you to rely on own money (bank savings and domestic currency)
Banks and Real Estate Developers equal rapid growth.
Financial Liberalization
Governments Implement Financial Liberalization: interest rates free to move, banks free to get into new lines of business, banks and firms free to borrow from abroad (in foreign currency), and liberalization of capital flows, including short term flows.
Asian Financial Crisis
Asian countries were very financially unstable. Thailand fixed the bahat to the dollar, importing more than they exported, but then ran out of reserves to defend the value of the bahat. Similar thing happened in Korea. People then started selling their Thai holdings for dollars, bringing the value down further. Foreign investors then pul out and the yen is out of the banks. The banks can't get money back and go bust. Foreign investors demand payment from direct borrowers in dollars and yen, but borrowers can't come up w/ enough money now that real burden has doubled then tripled due to currency shifts.
Capital Flight
Cccurs when assets and money rapidly flow out of a country, due to an economic event that disturbs investors and causes them to lower their valuation of the assets in that country, or otherwise to lose confidence in its economic strength. Happened in Asian financial crisis when people started selling their Thai holdings for dollars, bringing the value down even further.
Washington Consensus
Imposed by the International Monetary Fund. It made things even worse in the Asian Financial Crisis. It raised interest rates, cut gov't spending, and liberalized financial markets. Did not address the issues of fleeting capital and inability of borrowers to pay back, it made these issues even worse. Cutting gov't spending removed social safety nets and slowed the economy even further. The result was that Asians were suffereing while investors got their money back.
Asian Monetary Fund
Proposed by Japan in Sept. 1997 to provide help to other crisis-hit countries. BUT the US squashes this proposal and insists on IMF leadership and proceeded to impose tough stuff on Korea and Indonesia.
S.C.S. Territorial Dispute
Chinese claim that islands in the South China Sea are in the territorial waters of China, in a ocnflict w/ Japan, may cut off access to oil from SCS.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization. To combat terrorism, collect info on radical groups in the region, reolve territorial disputes, like Croatian and Serbian borders. Either build an organization to gang up against China or gang up against U.S.-China opposes any kind of organization like this, and many countries wouldn't risk incensing China-also US probably not willing to share power.
Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. Since 1974, created during the Cold War as an alternative way of dealing w/ security issues in Europe. Today includes post-soviet countries. Concerned w/ transparency and reducing transaction costs.
Helinski Accords of 1975: all countries including the Soviet UNion agree to support human rights and declaration of principles guiding nations in conflict resolution. Asia does not have nething like this, even w/ a number of Asian countries wanting to participate b/c China says no. OSCE has these accords. Neets annually includes large secretariat.
Informal Talk Shop
Agreement by group of countries to meet occasionally to talk. No secretariat, no formal agreement about distribution of power. Track 2 talk Shop: professors from diff countries getting together to talk.
Asian Regional Forum. 18 naitons agreeed to meet in 1994, like ASEAN. Was formed for the ASEAN countries to tlak about security issues, formed in the ASEAN way: sovereignty, equality, territorial unity, no interference in internal affairs, right to choose own social system. Consensus: no commitment to meet again, no secretariat. Forum for tlaking about SCS, discussion led to Declaration of conduct in SCS, prevented military conflicts in SCS region. China still resists conflict resolution roles for ARF. China is gradually accepting, by dealing w/ issues on Track 2 then moving them to Track I. Constructivists believe this is an important way to bring Chinese leaders into multi-natiional talks and allowing them to deal w/ disputes more peacefully.
N.K. Missiles
NK: history of agression. always challenging status quo in region,. Kidknapping, Bombing in Rangoon 1983 w/ an attempt to assassinate SK president, instead killing foreign minister and cabinet memebers. Bombing Korean Airlines #858, and also focused on making WMD's.
No-dong 1: can reach most of Japan and US military bases.
Taepo-dong 1: can hit all populated centers in Japan and SK, launched w/o warning over Japan, landing in Pacific on other side.
taepo-dong 2: not yet tested, supposed to be able to reach Alaska and Hawaii...can hit US and allies, and supposed to sell to Middle East on Black Market.
The International Atomic Energy Agency. It seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for military purposes. Had routine inspections, NK dragged feet about PLant inspections and in 1991 inspectors found missing plutonium (enough fuel for about 1-2 bombs taken to undisclosed location). June 1994: IAEA requests for special inspection to search every plant for missing plutonium, and NK refuses. Agreed framework: 1994 NK would shut down its nuclear reactor and spend fuel under IAEA supervision.
6-party Talks
China to rescue because don't want regime collapse or test of nuclear bomb to promote proliferation in region.
China cuts off oil-pipelines to NK, blaming technical difficulties.
Initiates 6-party talks in Apr. 2003, all major parutes plus Russia. Outcome: Joint Statement of 2005.
Joint Statement of 2005
NK agrees to stop program if concessions are made.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT or NNPT) is an international treaty, opened for signature on July 1, 1968 to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. NK ratified the treaty, broke it, then later withdrew.
Yasukuni Shrine
Shrine holding casualties of WWII. Some of these people are perpetrators of war crimes. Was visited by Koizumi from 2001-2006, other nations don't like this including China.
Former PM of Japan, visited Yasukuni shrine, sparked controversy. Seperation of church and state? Issues w/ visiting because people convicted of war crimes also buried there, "crimes against peace." Was gradually expanding Japan’s military roles in “War on Terror” and Iraq operations.
Current PM of Japan. Defense Ministry, education reform (teach patriotism), revise Article 9, Theater Missile Defense, talk about Nuclear Weapons.
China's Challenge
Shanghai Communique
US and China both agreed that there was one China, US recognized Beijing as the government of China.
Engagement Strategy
Containment Strategy
Deterrence Theory
Threat Credibility
In Realist View: Threats will not be credible if benefits of concessions sought are less than the costs of carrying out the threat. Realists don't believe in talk, but instead believe that you must back up threats with action.
Alliance Credibility
During Cold War, US wants to make credible promises. Protecting Korea is integral to protecting Japan, and Japan is our vital interst. Benefits of defending ally must be greater than costs of defending.
Korea-Japan Quasi-Alliance
Threats: US and Korea
OUr threats weren't considered credible and we weren't making them strong enough so NK invaded. We make the threat credible by putting soldiers lives on the line, we'd go to war if NK attacked our soldiers. Make threat...then construct as credible.
Credibility of Threats in Korea
No invasions after the Korean War, so fits into realist theory.
Credibility of Threats in Vietnam
US absorbed these huge losses despite low stakes and little interest, w/ many Vietnamese deaths also. Threats didn't force Ho Chi Minh to give up: US forced to walk away and take over. We tried to maintain a reputation for keeping promises. Valuable reputation for sticking to their word.
Reputation and Korean War
US led fight to roll back NK invasion in large part to show its commitment to contain communist expansion and living up to its promises. Pres. Truman thought failure to fight in Korea was 'open invitation to new acts of aggression everywhere'. Helps explain why we can't withdraw from Iraq.
Dispositional Attribution
When someone you do not identify with either racially or ethnically does something undesireable their behavior is explained by racial tendencies/disposition
Situational Attribution
When someone you do identify with does something undesireable, you can explain it away by other intervening excuses.
Bretton Woods System
A system that allowed for confidence in an international medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. Developed in 1944 until 1977.
Democratic Peace in Asia
Tianamen Square Incident 1989. NK as undemocratic and contributing to unrest in the region. Russia is nondemocratic. It's about half and half in the region.
Assoc. of SouthEast Asian Nations. Found in 1960's, talk mostly about economic issues in the region. Led to formation of ARF. "ASEAN Way": sovereignty, equality, and territorial unity, no interference in internaitonal affairs, right to choose one's own social system.