Current Events Of East Asian Relations

Front 1

Reputation

Back 1

Realist: A promise will be more credible if a nation states its reputation for resolve -for living up to its word (Schelling, the benefits of living up to the promise must be greater than the costs of carrying ou the threat

Constructivist: Mercer argues reputations for resolve that are valuable acress situations do not form, dispositional attribution & situational attribution, when countries are dealing w/ eachother there is never a complete trust because they are still dealing w/ others.

Front 2

Kim Jong Il

Back 2

Leader of North Korea. View of Bush threat to get tough, view of Bush offer of improved relations. Did not have this desired effect, reputation does not work always the way many leaders believe that it does.

Front 3

Analogies Shaping Policy Toward Iraq

Back 3

Japan is optimisitc analogy: march in, occupy, and make a democrac.
Vietnam Analogy: pull out now...why wait?

Front 4

Analogies (Analogical Explanation)

Back 4

Since calculating costs and benefits of alternative actions is dificult, we tend to rely on historical analogies to figure out stakes, calculate risks, and perscribe action. When a situation is linked to an analogy that favors caution, leaders will be cautious: when a situation is linked to an anology that favors showing resolve leaders are more likely to move in that direction.

Front 5

Analogies Shaping Policy Toward North Korea

Back 5

Iraq! We can't get tough and threaten them w/ military force. Libya, US refused to deal w/ them because they were developing nuclear weapons. US made diplomatic deals and Libya allowed us to dismantle their nuclear program.

Front 6

Most Favored Nation Principle

Back 6

Means that the receiving nation will be granted all trade advantages, such as low tariffs that any third nation also receives. In effect, having MFN status means that one's nation will not be treated worse than anyone else's nation, as reflected by the American term. If a country offers a good deal to the US we will lower our taxes to them.

Front 7

GATT

Back 7

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Mechanism for reducing trade barriers and preventing cheating. GATT ensures that a country must offer the same trade tariffs for everyone, lowering tarifs and trade barriers for everyone else in the world.

Front 8

Hegemonic Stability Theory

Back 8

IN anarchy, nations worry about relative gains, and so will find it very difficult to cooperate in providing public goods, like LIEO (Greico). The only reason that the liberal world order has worked was b/c the US has been big enough and willing to make and enforce these rules.

Front 9

Neoliberal Institutionalist View

Back 9

International institutions help sustain cooperation by reducing transaction costs, creating issue-linkages, and generating iterated games. Liberal order will not break down because of rules.

Front 10

Iterated Games

Back 10

Repeated interations, that build trust between international relations.

Front 11

"The Blue Team"- China Hawks

Back 11

Paul Wolfowitz, Michael Pillsbury, John Bolton, Doug Feith. Emergence of Relative Gains Thinking About China: “China’s economic vision is fundamentally mercantilist. The principle aim is not the expansion o fthe individual prosperity and freedom but instead the accumulation of national power by means of promoting exports abroad, protectionism at home, and mandatory transfers of technology and know-how to Chinese enterprises as the price for limited access to China’s market. Such practices…have allowed China to accumulate hard currency with which to buy an array of Russian weaponry…”

Front 12

Yen Fixing

Back 12

In 1990s, China fixed the yen to the USD. There is debate over them keeping the currency artificially cheap, which is making it cheaper for them to export. They have a new currency system since 2005, where there is gradual appreciation of currency @ 2% a year, but US thinks this is still WAY too undervalued by about 27%.

Front 13

Democratic Peace Theory

Back 13

Democracies never make war on eachother. There is evidence of a remarkable correlation. Competeing theories about the causes of democratic peace: The Democratic Peace in Asia, The Export-led Peace in Asia.
Liberal/Constructivist Explanation: Norms, cultures that permit compromise will come to apply across international boundaries.
Realist Explanation: Information. 2 democratic states w/ perfect info about eachother's constraints, will not go to war.

Front 14

Tianamen Square Incident 1989

Back 14

Students and protestors openly criticizing the government – led to direct confrontation between the people and the government (built a Goddess of Democracy – like Statue of Liberty). Americans realised that the Chinese were willing to use force against their own people. Can’t really attribute this to norms: they attacked their own people; nor to information: no one predicted this would happen.

Front 15

Export-Led Peace

Back 15

- 1978 China turned toward an export-led strategy under Deng Xiaoping: special economic zones; focus on attracting foreign investment; increase in export share of economy until they account for 30% of nominal GDP today! 2/3 of growth coming from increasing exports (10% growth in GDP). Uriu suggests that all of this tremendous focus on exports has made Asia into a 'zone of amity'. Except for NK, it exports almost nothing and has no economic stake in getting along w/ neighbors.

Front 16

E.Asia Economic Growth Model

Back 16

Asian Economical Characteristics: high domestic savings, small state (state not very intrusive in running businesses), possibilities for rapid catch-up growth (starting behind – lots of technologies to borrow).
Government Coordination:fixed, low interest rates; rigid regulations on bank operations; limits on foreign borrowing; and capital controls (gov regulations saying that you cannot move money in and out of the country [electronically or physically] – making foreigners not want to invest anything, leaving you to rely on own money (bank savings and domestic currency)
Banks and Real Estate Developers equal rapid growth.

Front 17

Financial Liberalization

Back 17

Governments Implement Financial Liberalization: interest rates free to move, banks free to get into new lines of business, banks and firms free to borrow from abroad (in foreign currency), and liberalization of capital flows, including short term flows.

Front 18

Asian Financial Crisis

Back 18

Asian countries were very financially unstable. Thailand fixed the bahat to the dollar, importing more than they exported, but then ran out of reserves to defend the value of the bahat. Similar thing happened in Korea. People then started selling their Thai holdings for dollars, bringing the value down further. Foreign investors then pul out and the yen is out of the banks. The banks can't get money back and go bust. Foreign investors demand payment from direct borrowers in dollars and yen, but borrowers can't come up w/ enough money now that real burden has doubled then tripled due to currency shifts.

Front 19

Capital Flight

Back 19

Cccurs when assets and money rapidly flow out of a country, due to an economic event that disturbs investors and causes them to lower their valuation of the assets in that country, or otherwise to lose confidence in its economic strength. Happened in Asian financial crisis when people started selling their Thai holdings for dollars, bringing the value down even further.

Front 20

Washington Consensus

Back 20

Imposed by the International Monetary Fund. It made things even worse in the Asian Financial Crisis. It raised interest rates, cut gov't spending, and liberalized financial markets. Did not address the issues of fleeting capital and inability of borrowers to pay back, it made these issues even worse. Cutting gov't spending removed social safety nets and slowed the economy even further. The result was that Asians were suffereing while investors got their money back.

Front 21

Asian Monetary Fund

Back 21

Proposed by Japan in Sept. 1997 to provide help to other crisis-hit countries. BUT the US squashes this proposal and insists on IMF leadership and proceeded to impose tough stuff on Korea and Indonesia.

Front 22

S.C.S. Territorial Dispute

Back 22

Chinese claim that islands in the South China Sea are in the territorial waters of China, in a ocnflict w/ Japan, may cut off access to oil from SCS.

Front 23

NATO

Back 23

North Atlantic Treaty Organization. To combat terrorism, collect info on radical groups in the region, reolve territorial disputes, like Croatian and Serbian borders. Either build an organization to gang up against China or gang up against U.S.-China opposes any kind of organization like this, and many countries wouldn't risk incensing China-also US probably not willing to share power.

Front 24

OSCE or CSCE

Back 24

Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe. Since 1974, created during the Cold War as an alternative way of dealing w/ security issues in Europe. Today includes post-soviet countries. Concerned w/ transparency and reducing transaction costs.

Front 25

Helinski

Back 25

Helinski Accords of 1975: all countries including the Soviet UNion agree to support human rights and declaration of principles guiding nations in conflict resolution. Asia does not have nething like this, even w/ a number of Asian countries wanting to participate b/c China says no. OSCE has these accords. Neets annually includes large secretariat.

Front 26

Informal Talk Shop

Back 26

Agreement by group of countries to meet occasionally to talk. No secretariat, no formal agreement about distribution of power. Track 2 talk Shop: professors from diff countries getting together to talk.

Front 27

ARF

Back 27

Asian Regional Forum. 18 naitons agreeed to meet in 1994, like ASEAN. Was formed for the ASEAN countries to tlak about security issues, formed in the ASEAN way: sovereignty, equality, territorial unity, no interference in internal affairs, right to choose own social system. Consensus: no commitment to meet again, no secretariat. Forum for tlaking about SCS, discussion led to Declaration of conduct in SCS, prevented military conflicts in SCS region. China still resists conflict resolution roles for ARF. China is gradually accepting, by dealing w/ issues on Track 2 then moving them to Track I. Constructivists believe this is an important way to bring Chinese leaders into multi-natiional talks and allowing them to deal w/ disputes more peacefully.

Front 28

N.K. Missiles

Back 28

NK: history of agression. always challenging status quo in region,. Kidknapping, Bombing in Rangoon 1983 w/ an attempt to assassinate SK president, instead killing foreign minister and cabinet memebers. Bombing Korean Airlines #858, and also focused on making WMD's.
No-dong 1: can reach most of Japan and US military bases.
Taepo-dong 1: can hit all populated centers in Japan and SK, launched w/o warning over Japan, landing in Pacific on other side.
taepo-dong 2: not yet tested, supposed to be able to reach Alaska and Hawaii...can hit US and allies, and supposed to sell to Middle East on Black Market.

Front 29

IAEA

Back 29

The International Atomic Energy Agency. It seeks to promote the peaceful use of nuclear energy and to inhibit its use for military purposes. Had routine inspections, NK dragged feet about PLant inspections and in 1991 inspectors found missing plutonium (enough fuel for about 1-2 bombs taken to undisclosed location). June 1994: IAEA requests for special inspection to search every plant for missing plutonium, and NK refuses. Agreed framework: 1994 NK would shut down its nuclear reactor and spend fuel under IAEA supervision.

Front 30

6-party Talks

Back 30

China to rescue because don't want regime collapse or test of nuclear bomb to promote proliferation in region.
China cuts off oil-pipelines to NK, blaming technical difficulties.
Initiates 6-party talks in Apr. 2003, all major parutes plus Russia. Outcome: Joint Statement of 2005.

Front 31

Joint Statement of 2005

Back 31

NK agrees to stop program if concessions are made.

Front 32

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Back 32

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, also Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT or NNPT) is an international treaty, opened for signature on July 1, 1968 to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. NK ratified the treaty, broke it, then later withdrew.

Front 33

Yasukuni Shrine

Back 33

Shrine holding casualties of WWII. Some of these people are perpetrators of war crimes. Was visited by Koizumi from 2001-2006, other nations don't like this including China.

Front 34

Koizumi

Back 34

Former PM of Japan, visited Yasukuni shrine, sparked controversy. Seperation of church and state? Issues w/ visiting because people convicted of war crimes also buried there, "crimes against peace." Was gradually expanding Japan’s military roles in “War on Terror” and Iraq operations.

Front 35

Abe

Back 35

Current PM of Japan. Defense Ministry, education reform (teach patriotism), revise Article 9, Theater Missile Defense, talk about Nuclear Weapons.

Front 36

China's Challenge

Back 36

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Front 37

Shanghai Communique

Back 37

US and China both agreed that there was one China, US recognized Beijing as the government of China.

Front 38

Engagement Strategy

Back 38

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Front 39

Containment Strategy

Back 39

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Front 40

Deterrence Theory

Back 40

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Front 41

Threat Credibility

Back 41

In Realist View: Threats will not be credible if benefits of concessions sought are less than the costs of carrying out the threat. Realists don't believe in talk, but instead believe that you must back up threats with action.

Front 42

Alliance Credibility

Back 42

During Cold War, US wants to make credible promises. Protecting Korea is integral to protecting Japan, and Japan is our vital interst. Benefits of defending ally must be greater than costs of defending.

Front 43

Korea-Japan Quasi-Alliance

Back 43

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Front 44

Threats: US and Korea

Back 44

OUr threats weren't considered credible and we weren't making them strong enough so NK invaded. We make the threat credible by putting soldiers lives on the line, we'd go to war if NK attacked our soldiers. Make threat...then construct as credible.

Front 45

Credibility of Threats in Korea

Back 45

No invasions after the Korean War, so fits into realist theory.

Front 46

Credibility of Threats in Vietnam

Back 46

US absorbed these huge losses despite low stakes and little interest, w/ many Vietnamese deaths also. Threats didn't force Ho Chi Minh to give up: US forced to walk away and take over. We tried to maintain a reputation for keeping promises. Valuable reputation for sticking to their word.

Front 47

Reputation and Korean War

Back 47

US led fight to roll back NK invasion in large part to show its commitment to contain communist expansion and living up to its promises. Pres. Truman thought failure to fight in Korea was 'open invitation to new acts of aggression everywhere'. Helps explain why we can't withdraw from Iraq.

Front 48

Dispositional Attribution

Back 48

When someone you do not identify with either racially or ethnically does something undesireable their behavior is explained by racial tendencies/disposition

Front 49

Situational Attribution

Back 49

When someone you do identify with does something undesireable, you can explain it away by other intervening excuses.

Front 50

Bretton Woods System

Back 50

A system that allowed for confidence in an international medium of exchange, unit of account and store of value. Developed in 1944 until 1977.

Front 51

Democratic Peace in Asia

Back 51

Tianamen Square Incident 1989. NK as undemocratic and contributing to unrest in the region. Russia is nondemocratic. It's about half and half in the region.

Front 52

ASEAN

Back 52

Assoc. of SouthEast Asian Nations. Found in 1960's, talk mostly about economic issues in the region. Led to formation of ARF. "ASEAN Way": sovereignty, equality, and territorial unity, no interference in internaitonal affairs, right to choose one's own social system.