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85 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
- 3rd side (hint)
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Paradigm shift |
Man dominate nature |
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Moral imperative |
Some countries are more impacted than others *EQUITY*climate |
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Climate change |
Most important issue facing mankind we haven’t dealt with before, and it transcends geographical boundaries, highly complex environmental, economic, social and moral issues. Social justice lenses- not everyone contributed equally nor will be affected equally. |
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What is climate change? |
Long term change in Earths climate (temperature, precipitation, sea level) |
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Climate vs weather |
Weather: state of atmosphere over short period of time (specific time and place) Climate: how atmosphere behaves over long period of time (long term average of weather) |
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How is climate changing? |
Global surface temp increase 0.85*C since pre industrial Social-economic and earth system trends increase Earths total heat content anomaly, increase ocean heating Canada is warming faster than the rest of the world 73% of earths surface significantly warmer than 1951-1989s average Global average temp projected to 1.6-4.(* until 2100 Earth warming GHG traps heat (enhanced) |
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Climate forcing vs feedback |
Forcing: a process that can change the Earths temp but does not respond to changes in Earth temp Feedback: process/sequence of processes that respond to changes in Earths temp and influence earth temp |
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Time scales of climate |
- climate baseline (1971-2000 avg) - year to year variability (el niño, La Niña) - decadal oscillations - long term trends (30-100year) - even longer time scale variability - “normals” change - climate variability is ongoing (need to plan for variability) - Multi-decadal oscillations - Long term trends/ major shifts in climate - short term negative trends in climate change will occur |
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Why can’t we predict the future based on the past? |
- shows what we’ve done (based on data from previous years) - if same as past, maybe could plan for the future *still a lot of variability, need to use more physics base* |
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Global climatic models/dynamic models |
Mathematical representation of the global climate system |
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Global climatic models/dynamic models |
Mathematical representation of the global climate system |
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Paris Agreement |
GHG/co2 emissions need to be net zero (will level out to new normal- will be equal to the record breaking heat the last few years) Will need to adopt to changing climate Base conditions used now will not work/ stay consistent with future climate projections |
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Other climate change impacts |
- more frequent and more intense wet days - decreases snowpack (60%) - fewer frost days (*1-2 months was) - increased hot days (3x the days above 25*C) - changes to streamflow |
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Changes in building development? |
- “climate not static” - “GHG emissions are expected to alter most climatic regimes in the future” - buildings will need to be changed to be designed/ maintained and operated (however updating some standards and codes may take up to ~10 years) |
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Perceptions |
Range of attitudes, opinions and ways of understanding the world |
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Perceptions |
Range of attitudes, opinions and ways of understanding the world |
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Info-deficit model |
Argues that providing info leads to action Reality: info is not enough on its own |
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Misperceptions |
Holding a view, belief or understanding that is inaccurate or misleading relative to hard evidence |
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Misperceptions |
Holding a view, belief or understanding that is inaccurate or misleading relative to hard evidence |
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Some perceptual barriers |
- climate change is not very visible - impacts not recognized yet, evidence at local level is subtle - causes (ie co2) are invisible - climate change not very visible |
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Misperceptions |
Holding a view, belief or understanding that is inaccurate or misleading relative to hard evidence |
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Some perceptual barriers |
- climate change is not very visible - impacts not recognized yet, evidence at local level is subtle - causes (ie co2) are invisible - climate change not very visible |
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Temporal discounting |
Risks seem temporally distant (will only happen in future) |
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Spatial discounting |
Risks seem physically distant (“won’t happen to me”) |
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Some misperceptions |
Denial, confusion, lack of knowledge/understanding, not personally relevant/concerning, lack of agency |
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Coping strategies |
1. Denial (of facts and emotions) 2. Maladaptive strategies: shift blame, indifference, despair, helplessness, unrealistic optimism, etc 3. Adoptive strategies (including grieving but accepting the problem and acting on it) |
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CAN on the Paris agreement |
65% agreement, but not doing enough to fight CC 2/3 of CAN sees fighting CC as top priority 50% would not spend >$10 per year in taxes to prevent CC |
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Behavioural intention |
Easier to change: - buying local - decrease thermostat - Purchase fewer things - Drive less Harder to change: - Going w/o AC - fly less - buy EV - move to smaller house - give up eating meat |
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How does CAN feel about increase taxes for CC |
Majority of CAN opposes to increasing taxes on carbon based fuels, most support cap & trade shstem |
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How does the media cover CC? |
“Balance as Bias” in the media The “consensus gaps” The public thinks 55% of climate scientists agree on global warming, in reality 97% do |
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Some challenges in climate communication |
Science side: Complexity, uncertainty, terminology, abstraction, modelling-based remoteness from real life Audience side Barriers/influence/filters World views and mental models (confirmation bias) |
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The Dragons of Inaction: A challenge for a Carbon-Negative society |
Seven Dragon Genera (38 species in all) 1. Limited cognition 2. Ideologies 3. Other people 4. Sunk Costs 5. Discredence 6. Perceived Risks 7. Limited behaviour |
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Causes of CC (dragons) |
- structural macro influences - geophysical factors (heat/AC) - economic factors (marketing, grow/die capitalism) - technological factors (rise is so comfy) - infrastructure problems (ride bike in traffic) - political constraints (getting legislation passed is hard) - psychological factors (personality, values, etc) - interpersonal factors (social comparison, friendship, etc) -decision making (all choices matter/ behaviour*) |
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Examples of limited cognition |
- ancient brain (care about present & here/now) - ignorance (lack of knowledge) - numbness (tune out) - uncertainty - discounting - optimism bias (it’s fine it’ll work out) - lack of perceived control |
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Examples of limited cognition |
- ancient brain (care about present & here/now) - ignorance (lack of knowledge) - numbness (tune out) - uncertainty - discounting - optimism bias (it’s fine it’ll work out) - lack of perceived control |
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Examples of ideologies |
- political world views - system justification (I don’t want to change anything) - suprahuman powers (god/ Mother Nature in control) - technosalvation (engineers will fix it) |
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Examples of limited cognition |
- ancient brain (care about present & here/now) - ignorance (lack of knowledge) - numbness (tune out) - uncertainty - discounting - optimism bias (it’s fine it’ll work out) - lack of perceived control |
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Examples of ideologies |
- political world views - system justification (I don’t want to change anything) - suprahuman powers (god/ Mother Nature in control) - technosalvation (engineers will fix it) |
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Examples of Other people & info sources (dragons) |
- social comparison - social norms - perceived inequity - confirmation bias - my boss made me do it |
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Examples of limited cognition |
- ancient brain (care about present & here/now) - ignorance (lack of knowledge) - numbness (tune out) - uncertainty - discounting - optimism bias (it’s fine it’ll work out) - lack of perceived control |
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Examples of ideologies |
- political world views - system justification (I don’t want to change anything) - suprahuman powers (god/ Mother Nature in control) - technosalvation (engineers will fix it) |
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Examples of Other people & info sources (dragons) |
- social comparison - social norms - perceived inequity - confirmation bias - my boss made me do it |
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Examples of sunk costs (dragons) |
- financial investments - behavioural momentum (habit) - conflicting goals and aspirations - time is money |
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Examples of limited cognition |
- ancient brain (care about present & here/now) - ignorance (lack of knowledge) - numbness (tune out) - uncertainty - discounting - optimism bias (it’s fine it’ll work out) - lack of perceived control |
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Examples of ideologies |
- political world views - system justification (I don’t want to change anything) - suprahuman powers (god/ Mother Nature in control) - technosalvation (engineers will fix it) |
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Examples of Other people & info sources (dragons) |
- social comparison - social norms - perceived inequity - confirmation bias - my boss made me do it |
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Examples of sunk costs (dragons) |
- financial investments - behavioural momentum (habit) - conflicting goals and aspirations - time is money |
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Examples of perceived risks (dragons) |
- social - psychological - financial - functional - physical - temporal |
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Examples of limited cognition |
- ancient brain (care about present & here/now) - ignorance (lack of knowledge) - numbness (tune out) - uncertainty - discounting - optimism bias (it’s fine it’ll work out) - lack of perceived control |
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Examples of ideologies |
- political world views - system justification (I don’t want to change anything) - suprahuman powers (god/ Mother Nature in control) - technosalvation (engineers will fix it) |
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Examples of Other people & info sources (dragons) |
- social comparison - social norms - perceived inequity - confirmation bias - my boss made me do it |
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Examples of sunk costs (dragons) |
- financial investments - behavioural momentum (habit) - conflicting goals and aspirations - time is money |
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Examples of perceived risks (dragons) |
- social - psychological - financial - functional - physical - temporal |
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Examples of Discredence (dragons) |
- perceived program inadequacy (that’s not enough to get me to do what you want me to do) -mistrust (don’t believe what the scientists are saying) - reactance (you can’t make me do it) -denial -neo-denialist (it’s happening, but it’s not that important) |
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Examples of limited cognition |
- ancient brain (care about present & here/now) - ignorance (lack of knowledge) - numbness (tune out) - uncertainty - discounting - optimism bias (it’s fine it’ll work out) - lack of perceived control |
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Examples of ideologies |
- political world views - system justification (I don’t want to change anything) - suprahuman powers (god/ Mother Nature in control) - technosalvation (engineers will fix it) |
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Examples of Other people & info sources (dragons) |
- social comparison - social norms - perceived inequity - confirmation bias - my boss made me do it |
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Examples of sunk costs (dragons) |
- financial investments - behavioural momentum (habit) - conflicting goals and aspirations - time is money |
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Examples of perceived risks (dragons) |
- social - psychological - financial - functional - physical - temporal |
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Examples of Discredence (dragons) |
- perceived program inadequacy (that’s not enough to get me to do what you want me to do) -mistrust (don’t believe what the scientists are saying) - reactance (you can’t make me do it) -denial -neo-denialist (it’s happening, but it’s not that important) |
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Examples of limited behaviour |
- tokenism (I’ve recycled now so I’ve done my part) -rebound effect (I’ve recycled now, so I’ll reward myself with a hummer) |
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Examples of limited cognition |
- ancient brain (care about present & here/now) - ignorance (lack of knowledge) - numbness (tune out) - uncertainty - discounting - optimism bias (it’s fine it’ll work out) - lack of perceived control |
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Examples of ideologies |
- political world views - system justification (I don’t want to change anything) - suprahuman powers (god/ Mother Nature in control) - technosalvation (engineers will fix it) |
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Examples of Other people & info sources (dragons) |
- social comparison - social norms - perceived inequity - confirmation bias - my boss made me do it |
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Examples of sunk costs (dragons) |
- financial investments - behavioural momentum (habit) - conflicting goals and aspirations - time is money |
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Examples of perceived risks (dragons) |
- social - psychological - financial - functional - physical - temporal |
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Examples of Discredence (dragons) |
- perceived program inadequacy (that’s not enough to get me to do what you want me to do) -mistrust (don’t believe what the scientists are saying) - reactance (you can’t make me do it) -denial -neo-denialist (it’s happening, but it’s not that important) |
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Examples of limited behaviour |
- tokenism (I’ve recycled now so I’ve done my part) -rebound effect (I’ve recycled now, so I’ll reward myself with a hummer) |
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What can we do? (Action/ dragons of inaction) |
1. Development understanding of impactful behaviour (which are the most impactful acts, assess the variations in the rates of these actions) 2. Develop & evaluate interventions 3. Work with other disciplines (better energy) 4. Make the environment “now” (community-based network diffusion, facilitate amateur scientists, develop social networks) 5. Join the policy process (not at the table, not in the policy) 6. Reward the mules (climate mules- recognition, give them money- create more mules) 7. Reward the honeybees too (much climate positive behaviour is NOT done to help the environment) |
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What social norms encourage pro-ecological behaviours? |
- Consumer culture - big events - eating meat - single use plastic/ take out containers |
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Types of impacts |
Primary: biophysical Secondary: human (ie. socioeconomic impact) Direct: eg. caused by drought here Indirect: eg. caused by drought elsewhere |
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Levels of impacts |
Chronic condition: extended over a long period of time (drought in Cali, seal level flood in Miami) Extreme event: unusual episode happening at one point in time (eg. Hurricanes and heatwaves), outside the normal climate for that location and time (heatwaves), more frequent/more intense Subtle biophysical shift: slow and sometimes imperceptible change (change in migration) |
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Key aspects of climate projections |
- uncertainty/surprise/chaos vs clear trends - amplifying (reinforcing, positive) & balancing (stabilizing, negative) feedbacks - time delays - tipping points |
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Amplifying (+) feedback |
A process or sequence of processes, that respond to changes in Earth’s temp & in turn, influence the Earths temp Amplifies the change |
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Amplifying (+) feedback |
A process or sequence of processes, that respond to changes in Earth’s temp & in turn, influence the Earths temp Amplifies the change |
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Balancing (stabilizing) feedback |
- a resume (to a force) that pushes the system in THE OPPOSITE direction than the force pushed it *oceans absorb co2 slowing down the warming that would occur otherwise *warming that kills dark (absorptive) trees and increase reflection from pale grasses, decrease temp (slowing original process) |
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Examples of potential tipping point in the climate system |
Boreal forest dieback Melt of Greenland ice sheet Arctic sea ice loss Permafrost and tundra loss Sahara greening Dieback of Amazon |
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What can we expect in the future IPCC scenarios |
- [] continue increasing - [] stabilize, but at different levels - projected BC warming (temp increase) - increase % species extinction - large glaciers melting |
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Ocean Warming |
- detected, projected to continue at the surface & @ great depth - “thermal expansion” of water - mixing of surface and deep water - oxygen levels especially @ depth - species ranges (thermal range) - frequency of warm water related death of marine species (ie heatwaves) |
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Ocean acidification |
- drop in ocean pH and change in ocean C chemistry results from absorption of extra co2 from human activity - lower pH means higher acidity (or less “basic” water) - following modelled relationships between co2 & temp the pH drops by roughly 0.1 with each 1*c increase *ocean acidity decreases carbonate so some organisms ability to build their skeletons |
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Ocean acidification |
- drop in ocean pH and change in ocean C chemistry results from absorption of extra co2 from human activity - lower pH means higher acidity (or less “basic” water) - following modelled relationships between co2 & temp the pH drops by roughly 0.1 with each 1*c increase *ocean acidity decreases carbonate so some organisms ability to build their skeletons |
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The impact of CC on complex systems |
Generally estimate vulnerability of a system - an ecosystem, a society or a species- to CC based on; - Exposure (climate projections) - sensitivity (degree to which it can respond) - adaptive capacity |
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IPCC |
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change |
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Temporal discounting |
Risks that seem temporally distant (it will only happen in the future) |
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Spatial discounting |
Risks seem physically distant (it won’t happen to me) |
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