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10 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Kahneman & Tversky propose human reasoning is biased due to
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Heuristics (cognitie short-cuts)
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Representative heuristics
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Specific scenarios appear more likely than general one (more representative)
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Name the 2 branches of heuristics
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Availability and Representative heuristics
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Availability heuristics
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Ease of instances or occurrences brought to mind effects choice-overestimate low frequency and underestimate high frequency events
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Conjunction fallacy
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The co-occurrence of 2 events cannot be more likely than the probability of either event alone
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Combs & Slovic
Availability heuristic (newspaper) |
Reporting of different forms of death in a newspaper-although 16 times more people actually died due to disease than accidents, newspapers reported 7 times more people dying through accidents.
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Ross and Sicoly
Availability heuristic (thesis) |
Individuals overestimated their relative contribution but if frame the question differently-due to blame mean "I"=16.5% and "supervisor"=33.3%
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Tversky & Kahneman
Availability heuristic (works) |
69% incorrectly answered more frequent English words beginning with K although there's actually twice as many words with K as the 3rd letter. This is because our lexicon is organised by spelling-more words beginning with K are available for retrieval.
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Base rate neglect experiments
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Tversky & Kahneman hit and run cab. 85% cabs are green 15% blue. The reliability of witness correctly identifying was 80%. Whats the probability the cab involved was blue?
Casscells et al medical diagnosis. Prevalence of a disease is 1/1000, test has 5% false postive rate, what's the chance a person found to have a positive results actually has the disease |
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Cosmides and Tooby
Base rate neglect (probability Vs frequency) |
People performed much better if given whole numbers and fail to respond normatively when given probabilistic judgments. This may be because they are using heuristics such as availability and representative.
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