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82 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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what are the 2 objectives of the communicators plan suggested by cobb?
ASPO USA communications plan |
1. develop relationships w/reporters (electronic/print) --> to encourage the inclusion of peak oil perspective in stories
2. to provide materials/info for public education aimed at policy makers/general audience |
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how should the organization efforts be improved?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
-be organized around a set of consistent messages
-messages should be easy to communicate & east for listener to understand |
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what is peak oil?
what is it not? cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
-a story w/a narrative structure
-NOT a set of stats, group of charts |
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what does an audience expect?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
-a complete storyline
-even though no one knows what's going to happen for sure |
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what assumption do ASPO members share?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
-a view that somthing can be done to mitigate the effects of peak oil
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what are the 2 scenarios described by cobb?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
1. official future
-the tragedies that will happen if we continue on our current path -will change automatically as attempts are made to adjust 2. sensible responses -what is possible if we adopt intelligent policies/responses -still, the world would look super diff. -but happier than official future |
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what are audiences accustomed too?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
-happy endings
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what is the official story?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
-about the future of oil/society
-an accepted view among most scientists, in the industry, the public, most gov. officials -there is a problem with oil (finite source, expensive, import it from regimes, greenhouse gasses...) -BUT we have substitutes that will be available soon -plenty of oil from new oil discoveries -huge reserves from middle east -so there will be a smooth transition to post-oil world |
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what are the 3 legs of the ASPO storyline?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
1. undermining the official story
2. explain peak oil simply and clearly 3. use the 2 scenario ending --> helps people find a path to action w/out giving them unrealistic expectations about a post-peak world |
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what are the 3 parts of the suggested communication program?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
1. public education
-presentations, articles, youtube videos... 2. event publicity -annual conference, advertising, stories/advance notices in publications/media,... 3. media relations -ongoing story generation, crisis publicity, event publicity. media kits |
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what does the cobb conclude about crisis publicity?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
-if ASPO cultivates a network of peak oil aware reporters, crisis publicity will be much easier to manage
-basic media kits provide essential background materials but special materials for special crisis events |
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what does the author claim about the role of free media?
cobb ASPO USA communications plan |
-more credibility/cheap than advertising
-b/c what receives news coverage is determined by reporters/editors who are independent of their sources -not paid, controlled by the advertiser |
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what is peak oil?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-simplest label for the problem of energy source depletion
-the peak in global oil production |
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what does the article note about running out of oil?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-the end of cheap oil
-but the peak in oil production isn't running gout of oil |
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what is the easy oil point?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-if it takes the energy of a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of energy, then further extraction is pointless, no matter the price of oil
-easier cheap oil new surface, remaining oil is off-shore, takes more $ & energy to extract |
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what is the hubbert story of US peak?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-he noted that oil discoveries graphed over tine followed a bell shape curve
-predicted production would peak b/w 1965-1970 -no one believed him but it did peak |
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what does the author claim about the US oil peak?
energy bulletin peak oil primer |
-seen as the most significant geopolitical event of the mid-late 20th century
-created the conditions for the energy crisis of the 70s -led to US strategic control on controlling foreign sources of oil -the beginning of the end of the status of the US as world's major creditor nation |
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what does the author claim about the 65 largest oil producing countries?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-out of 65, 54 have passed their peak of production and are now in decline
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what are oil peak projections in the article?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-regular conventional oil reached an all time peak in 2005
-global oil discovery peaked in late 1960s -since 1980s, companies finding less oil then consuming -oil, deepwater, polar, natural gas liquids (all liquids category) peaks in 2010) -combined oil/gas are expected to peak 2010 |
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what are some basic points about decline rates?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-what's the further rate of decline of oil production?
-a form of coordinated adaptation might be possible if annual drop in available production was no more than 1-2%/year -10% implode global economy -most decline rates = 2-4% |
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what are some basic points about exports?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-nations dependent on imports find access to oil will fall at a sharper rate than global decline
-higher oil prices stimulating economy of exporting nations --> increases their internal consumption |
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what are some basic points about the natural gas peak?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-effects are localized b/c high economic and energetic expense of liquefying/transporting natural gas as a compressed liquid
-europe/north america already peaked --> severity of duel energy crisis |
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what is EROEI?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-energy returned on energy invested
-economies have grown b/c high EROEI ratio.....now as oil discovery is difficult, EROEI ratios are lower |
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what is the problem with hydrogen?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-it is an energy carrier, not an energy source
-must be produced using an energy source (nat'l gas/nuclear power) -energy is loss in transformation --> will have less energy than what was invested in it |
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what does the author claim about substitutes?
energy bulletin "peak oil primer" |
-wind/hydro-power may have better EROEI but expansion limited by physical factors
-alternative energy infrastructures require long periods of investment |
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what is the point of the 1st paragraph of the article?
energy tribune peak oil |
-people won't listen about the dangers of peak oil if it is not happening to them right now
-like warning of a drought while standing w/out an umbrella in the midst of a downpour -will only know peak oil when the even has actually passed |
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what do some of the best minds in the energy business claim?
energy tribune peak oil |
-oil prices are low
-they think this bear market is baiting the trap for a huge price run up in 2015 |
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who is peter wells?
estimate about peak? iran/iraq? energy tribune peak oil |
-oil analyst/toyota consultant
-global liquids output peak in 2015 -iran/iraq: political constraints that limit ability to increase production -politics, violence, lack of technically savvy workers, political regimes not interested/no ability to increase output for exports |
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what are the other impediments to the iran/iraq/can't increase production?
energy tribune peak oil |
-lack of manpower
-increasing prices of steel, fabrication, purchase, maintenance of machinery/installations |
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who is charley maxell?
his point about peak oil damage? energy tribune peak oil |
-oil analyst, mobil oil
-due to ongoing demand growth, lack of supply additions --> oil price $300 by 2015 |
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what is demand destruction?
energy tribune peak oil |
THEN: -sharp increases in oil prices --> lead to recessions
-recessions --> lead to sharp decreases in oil demand --> then leads to lower prices -period of slack demand is accompanied by period of low prices -NOW: we have a similar slack in demand due to higher prices |
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what are some forces that can lead to slower demand growth?
demand destruction energy tribune peak oil |
-sustained recession --> oil demand down
-automakers working on hybrids, electric cars -tougher efficiency standards for automakers, corn ethanol in gas pool |
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how is today's situation diff. from that in the 1980s/90s
energy tribune peak oil |
-now:
-fewer spare production capacity -fewer oil produces w/big reserves -china/india were still on the sidelines, not demanding oil |
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what is the author's concluding paragraph points?
difficulties ahead? energy tribune peak oil |
-consumers in poor countries unable to compete for fuel at those prices
-harder, fatal for those countries dependent on fuel for generators, f.---> risk of famine, starvation, -nations can't provide basic access --> still live in dire poverty -no one knows anything, markets/prices are chaotic -a prolonged recession/depression can choke world oil demand -no good alternative to oil, less investments in alternative tech --we still rely on oil for years but how much will it cost in 5 years? -must take steps to make better the potential disruption from oil shocks |
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what is peak oil lite?
whipple washington post |
-less worrisome concept of world oil production going into decline
-has optimistic view but no conclusion that fits the cited evidence |
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what do peak oil lite believers not internalize?
whipple washington post |
-the serious consequences of declining world production
-but know that supply/demand pushing up the prices |
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what do the washing post stories discuses/don't discuses
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-discuses:
-economic forces that have unhinged oil prices -peak oil and its imminence -increasing china demand |
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what is whipple's point about connecting the dots?
whipple washington post |
-the post has laid out the story for us
-but they need to connect the dots -tells us what it all means, what is in store for us |
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what is his concluding argument about the editorial debate & what readers want to hear?
whipple washington post |
-there is an editorial debate for the obvious conclusion that no reader wants to hear (we're fucked)
-should spread the word about where we're going |
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what 2 stories does whipple connect in his article?
whipple mea culpa |
-the financial crises and peak oil
-the financial story to what we have been witnessing in the media's coverage of peak oil |
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is there a lack of coverage of energy issues in media?
what inadequacies does whippple see in the reporting? whipple mea culpa |
-no lack of coverage
-but in terms of high gas prices and damage to family finances, effect on inflation -inadequacy: -focused on family finances... -not being believed that it'll come -difficult issues to convey to audience -against powerful force of greed |
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what is the point about horrendous implications?
whipple mea culpa |
-like how the financial issue is similar to peak oil:
-the implications of such concepts are so awful to hear -we're all benefiting in cheap oil...making money...---> no one wants o be told it'll all end |
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what it the problem with powerful institutions?
whipple mea culpa |
-exxonmobil, oil companies, governments...
-its in their best interests that the complete story of peak oil/consequences don't come to attention of general audience -don't want the call for sacrifices required to mitigate the consequences of peak oil |
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what does whipple believe that the peak oil story will sell?
whipple mea culpa |
-no one wants to hear about peak oil and it's implications
-it'll only sell when affordability/availability of oil gets to bad some action must be taken |
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does whipple believe we'll be seeing peak oil stories soon?
whipple mea culpa |
-it is lost in the financial crises stories...
-people are worried about what'll happen to their jobs, retirement, food supplies in the next 6 months -so difficult to get them to listen to warnings of high as prices/shortages that will be years from now |
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what is the main point about political response to peak oil?
whipple the silly season is upon us |
-the politicians/handlers are beginning to grasp the problem/make proposals
-propose US stop buying oil for strategic reserve --> force prices back down -no realistic solutions b/c it's not what the voters want to here --> shoot the messenger |
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is the peak oil problem complicated?
whipple the silly season is upon us |
-no
-world crude oil production flat for last 3 years -while india/china continue to increase their oil consumption |
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what is the "real issue"?
whipple the silly season is upon us |
-how long it'll take the US to understand the seriousness of the problem
-that it'll take decades of pain, discomfort, inconvenience to mitigate |
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what is the situation with the issue on cable news?
whipple the silly season is upon us |
-although every now and then, someone is speaking up about the oil shortages...
-the message is drowned out by many talking about bargains in equity markets and high high oil prices are caused by temp. surge in speculation |
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how do newspapers report the story?
whipple the silly season is upon us |
-acknowledge that world oil production will peak someday
-doesn't present it as an imminent fact -but writing's balanced stories that says it's coming now, it's in 40 years, it's 10-15 years... |
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how has the post covered the story?
whipple the silly season is upon us |
-the slowest in acknowledging the paradigm-changing worldwide oil shortage is imminent
-paper is read by everyone important in the fed gov. |
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what are the comments made by the shell CEO?
whipple the silly season is upon us |
-the fundamentals are no problem
-just lack of spare oil production, refining capacity, tensions in middle east for high prices...NOT the lack of reserves/oil... -but an energy crunch in 10-15 years |
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what does whipple sarcastically conclude about what our leaders know?
whipple the silly season is upon us |
-they know the peak oil crisis is 10-15 years
-speculation is responsible for the almost $4/gallon gasoline |
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what is the main point of this article?
cobb scitizen |
-the lexicon/vocab used in oil articles are used cynically/out of ignorance
-gives false impressions -ignorant of the full implications of the terms -intellectually dishonest -so article is to a list of short words used but author is informing instead... |
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what is the problem w/ "above-ground factors"?
cobb scitizen |
-above-ground: social unrest, lack of investment...prevents extraction
-problem: their assumption is that if we can brush aside these factors, we can get oil again -but HOW do you brush aside these factors...? |
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what are the 2 problems w/"at current rates of assumption"?
cobb scitizen |
1. rates of consumption aren't steady --> rising exponentially
-huge increases in consumption, so growth rates reduced # of years of future supply 2. fossil fuels are finite --> rate of production peak before we run out of them -decline in production -serious problems for 3rd world countries |
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why is "clean coal/carbon capture & sequestration" a troublesome set of phrases?
cobb scitizen |
-clean coal = removal of harmful pollutants but not sequestration of carbon dioxide
-based on the idea that coal remains abundant for the next century -and convince people coal can be burned w/out serious pollution/climate effects |
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the phrase "demand destruction" disguises what?
cobb scitizen |
-demand destruction: when people stop using something or use less of it b/c it becomes too expensive
-disguises the negative effects -people in poor country who rely on oil for basic services |
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what is the author's issue w/"resources"?
what is the rate of extraction issue? cobb scitizen |
-resource: in the ground, presumed to exist, doesn't mean it's recoverable using current tech/prices
-if it's proven and recoverable...called a reserve -no resource can be recovered 100% -reserve smaller than resource -EX: inheriting at million $ but only get $500 at a time...a millionaire but never live like one -world growth depends on rate of extraction...NOT size of resource -so can't extract resources at same rate as the past |
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what are the issues with "substitution"?
cobb scitizen |
-substitutions, alternatives...
-no guarantee that: -substitutes will emerge -they can/will grow to a large enough scale -they will be as cheap as current energy sources -they will be deployed in time to prevent significant disruptions |
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"technically recoverable" means what?
cobb scitizen |
-resources that are technically recoverable but not economically recoverable
-may not provide an energy surplus -absorbs energy in recovering it than providing it --> energy sinks |
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"technology has it's up and down sides" what is the author's view?
cobb scitizen |
-while there are impressive advances, it is not enough
-depletion outpaces tech -new technology is important in response but not prevent the need to reduce overall consumption |
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"unproven/undiscovered" is problematic, why?
cobb scitizen |
-can assume unexplored areas contain additional energy sources
-but CAN'T assume they will come in quantities, prices, rates of extraction we need |
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peak oil is about what?
when will we run out? peak oil media guide |
-peak RATE of oil production, not running out of oil
-in 100 years but produced in declining rates |
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what does the ASPO curve tell us?
peak oil media guide |
-peak of all petroleum liquids is 200
-but exact date of peak oil is irrelevant when considering the implications |
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where are we regarding the peak?
peak oil media guide |
-on the peak oil plateau or close enough that it doesn't matter
-we're too close to the peak -in next 3-8 years, end of peak oil plateau, go into terminal oil production decline |
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what does campbell claim is important?
peak oil media guide |
-arguing over precise date of peak misses the point
-should be concerned about the vision of the long slope that comes into sight on the other side of the plateau |
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how much oil does the US use?
how much of it is imported? peak oil media guide |
-20 MBPD million barrels per day
-produce 7mbpd, imports the other 2/3 -imports 13 barrels |
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what does the author claim about oil shale?
ANWR and offshore drilling? peak oil media guide |
-not really oil - kerogen
-not economically feasible to convert oil shale into usable liquid fuel -too energy intensive - only modest flow -if all limits on domestic drilling were removed --> only increase US oil production by max 2-3 mbpd -won't help considering loss in global oil production... |
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how can we be energy dependent?
what have the saudi's recognized about oil? peak oil media guide |
-only by curtailing oil demand, switch over to renewables
-can't drill our way to independence from imported oil -oil will become more valuable over time -save some for future generations |
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who is driving the oil price?
peak oil media guide |
-asia, south america, russia, middle east
-developing countries -their consumption makes up for the US decline in consumption |
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depletion is what?
peak oil media guide |
-a misunderstood issue
-oil production must make up for depletion of mature fields before any net additional oil can be counted -EX: like pouring water into a bucket w/a hole in it |
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what is happening w/expectations for future discoveries/production?
peak oil media guide |
-IEA's estimates have been shrinking
-reducing their prediction that oil supply would meet demand -projected supply curves reduced while demand increases |
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what kind of effect will improved technology have?
peak oil media guide |
-it can't move the peak
-can't change the time at which production peaks -can increase overall amount of oil that can be produced -can thicken/lengthen the tail on the bell curve |
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what does the peak oil organization that is the subject of the article do well?
bonde (student uc davis) |
-ASPO
-it was ready to evolve |
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what is ASPO not doing well?
bonde (student uc davis) |
-spends too much time forecasting the peak
-not explaining the consequences of it and plan for life after it -need greater outreach to everyone, not just younger people |
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what is the author's dumbing down point?
bonde (student uc davis) |
-ASPO can conduct honest unbiased education
-but might need to dumb down the super technical subject matter -might tarnish reputation to peak oil insiders but they are the choir and no longer need to hear the preaching |
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what does the publisher's note say?
bonde (student uc davis) |
-solutions- can be misconstrued to imply there are straightforward timely tech fixes to the situation
-can't expect with substitutes to continue our energy intensify lifestyle -writer hopes that we'll respond intelligently |
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what was the hirsch report?
ASPO aleklett and hirsch |
-a study on the mitigation of world oil peaking
-discusses peak oil w/out a focus on the date itself -but the political, economic, social impact |
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what responses does it claim will help the present crisis?
ASPO aleklett and hirsch |
-improve fuel efficiency in world's transportation sector
-enhanced conventional oil recovery -production of substitute fuels |
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what responses won't be of much use mitigating the present crisis?
ASPO aleklett and hirsch |
-nuclear solar energy can't substitute for liquid fuels in transportation
-electric cars will take long time to achieve significant market penetration, impact consumption -no viable options for heavy trucks or airplanes w/electricity |
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what are the 10 and 20 year points made by the author?
ASPO aleklett and hirsch |
-where an action is initiated when peaking occurs
-when action is initiated 10 years before peaking -help but result in global liquid shortages -when action is initiated 20 years before peaking -offers possibility of avoiding world liquid shortfalls |
