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27 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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heuristic
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– Probabilistic shortcuts that are rapid, but may lead to false conclusions
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bias
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– Systematic errors in thinking
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representative heuristic
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• Evaluating probability of an event based on its superficial similarity with a prototype
• The usual situation when this applies is judging the probability of an event under uncertainty. |
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base rate
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• Refers to frequency of a trait or behavior in the general population
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availability heuristic
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• Estimate probability of an event based on how easily it is retrieved from memory
• Ex: what’s deadlier horses or sharks? • Ex: Do more people die from terrorism or cancer? |
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cognitive biases
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• Systematic errors in reasoning and judgment
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hindsight bias
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• Overestimation of our ability to predict events after they already occurred
– “I knew it all along” claim – Ex: Study of Supreme Court confirmation |
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overconfidence bias
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• Overestimation of our ability to predict events after they already occurred
– “I knew it all along” claim – Ex: Study of Supreme Court confirmation |
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quantification
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– Increases precision and objectivity of observations by representing them as numbers
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random selection
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– Helps to draw a representative sample
– Ex: picking patients off a list using a random number generator |
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external validity
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– Ability to generalize findings to real world scenarios
– Ex: Introducing misinformation after an event leads to false memories |
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internal validity
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– Ability to generalize findings to real world scenarios
– Ex: Introducing misinformation after an event leads to false memories |
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naturalistic observation
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• Watching people’s behavior in real-world settings without manipulating it
• High in external validity • Low internal validity |
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advantages of surveys
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– Easy to administer
– Provide unique access to personal information |
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disadvantages of survey s
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– Assume competent and honest responders
– Malingering |
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correlation and causation
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• Correlation does not allow to infer causation
• It is necessary, but insufficient condition |
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illusory correlation
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• Perception of a nonexistent association
• Concentrating on situations when two apparently related events occur • Ignoring nonevents |
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placebo experiment
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change due to expectation of improvement
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nocebo effect
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change due to expectation of harm
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experimental expectancy
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– Unintentionally biasing results
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demand characteristics
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– Use cues to guess experimenter’s hypothesis
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descriptive statistics
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– Provides summary of numerical data
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inferential statistics
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– Allows to draw generalizable conclusions from data
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statistical significance
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using a probabilistic decision rule to choose between hypotheses
– Probability of the statistical result is > or < than, say, .05 |
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practical significance
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– Given a statistical difference what are the practical consequences of finding the effect
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tuskegee study example
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• From 1932 to 1972 US PHS sponsored the study of syphilis progression
• 399 African-American males from poor, rural areas of Alabama • Did not inform about: – Participation, diagnosis, available treatment • 28 dead from syphilis, 100 from complications, 40 wives infected, passed on to 19 children |
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ethical issues in research
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• From 1932 to 1972 US PHS sponsored the study of syphilis progression
• 399 African-American males from poor, rural areas of Alabama • Did not inform about: – Participation, diagnosis, available treatment • 28 dead from syphilis, 100 from complications, 40 wives infected, passed on to 19 children |
