Chapter 11 Reasoning, Judgement And Choice

Front 1

reasoning

Back 1

thought process that yields a conclusion from premises

Front 2

syllogistic reasoning

Back 2

a syllogism consists of two premises and a conclusion. Each of the premises specifies a relationship between two categories

Front 3

logicism

Back 3

the belief that logical reasoning is an essential part of human nature

Front 4

practical syllogism

Back 4

occurs when the conclusion drawn from two premises becomes an action

Front 5

Invalid/valid and believable/unbelievable syllogisms

Back 5

huge drop off in unbelievable syllogisms from valid to invalid, small drop off from believable. Believability seems to prime searching for validity (v.v for unbelievability)

Front 6

relational reasoning

Back 6

reasoning involving premises that express the relations between items, such as A is taller than B

Front 7

Three-term series problem

Back 7

Linear syllogisms consisting of two comparative sentences from which a conclusion must be drawn

Front 8

iconic

Back 8

a principle of Johnson-Laird's mental models theory: the relations between the parts of the model correspond to the relations between the parts of the situation it represents

Front 9

Emergent consequences

Back 9

A principle of Johnson-Laird's theory: you can get more out of a mental model than you put into it

Front 10

Parsimony

Back 10

A principle of Johnson-LAird's theory: people tend to construct only the simplest mental model if possible

Front 11

natural deduction systems

Back 11

a reasoning system made up of propositions and deduction rules to draw conclusions from these propositions

Front 12

Generative problem

Back 12

participants are told that the three numbers 2,4,6 conform to a simple relational rule that the experimenter has in mind, and that their task is to discover the rule by generating sequences of three numbers. The experimenter tells them each time whether the rule has been followed

Front 13

Selection task(Wason)

Back 13

a four-card problem based on conditional reasoning

Front 14

eliminative strategy

Back 14

the attempt to falsify your hypotheses, and thus eliminate incorrect beliefs

Front 15

confirmation bias

Back 15

the tendency to seek confirmatory evidence for a hypothesis

Front 16

conditional reasoning

Back 16

reasoning that requires the use of conditional - 'if...then' statements

Front 17

truth tables

Back 17

a way of presenting the various combinations of the constituents of logical statements

Front 18

social contract theory

Back 18

the theory that inference procedures have evolved to deal with social contracts in which people give something up in order to gain something else

Front 19

heuristics and biases

Back 19

people often use heuristics, or rules of thumb, which may work in some situations, but may bias or mislead them in others

Front 20

law of large numbers

Back 20

the larger the sample, the more nearly a statistic will be to the true value

Front 21

law of averages

Back 21

a fallacy based on the assumption that events of one kind are always balanced by events of another kind

Front 22

gambler's fallacy

Back 22

the mistaken belief that an event that has not occurred for a number of independent trials is more likely to happen on future trials

Front 23

law of small numbers

Back 23

the mistaken belief that a small sample should be representative of the population from which it is drawn

Front 24

representativeness heuristic

Back 24

making inferences on the assumption that small samples resemble one another and the population from which they are drawn

Front 25

adjustment and anchoring

Back 25

people's judgments of magnitude are biased by the initial value to which they are exposed

Front 26

hot-hand belief/behavior

Back 26

belief in streak shooting by bball players. Behavior is bias for a basketball player to take the next shot after previously scoring a basket

Front 27

availability

Back 27

the ease with which an item can be brought to mind as a label for experience

Front 28

intuitive concept

Back 28

a concept that is easily acquired and used by almost all adults (NOT statistics)

Front 29

illusory correlation

Back 29

mistaken belief that events go together when they do not

Front 30

regression to the mean

Back 30

for purely mathematical reasons, whenever two variables are not perfectly correlated, extreme values on one variable tend to be related to less extreme values on the other variable

Front 31

recognition heuristic

Back 31

when choosing between two objects, if one is recognized, more likely to be selected

Front 32

ecologically rational

Back 32

a heuristic is ecologically rational if it produces useful inferences by exploiting the structure of information in the environment

Front 33

less-is-more effect

Back 33

sometimes the person who knows less can make a better judgement than the person who knows more
(ie german student naming biggest californian city)