Ch10- Decision Making

Front 1

syllogistic reasoning

Back 1

evaluating whether a conclusion necessarily follows deductively from two premises that are assumed to be true

Front 2

valid deductive conclusion

Back 2

conclusion that is necessarily true given that the premises are true

Front 3

atmosphere hypothesis

Back 3

presumption that people compare the similarity of the conclusion to the premises in a deductive reasoning task rather than evaluate according to rules of logic

Front 4

illicit conversion

Back 4

people converting "all A are B" into "all B are A"

Front 5

belief bias

Back 5

people accepting any and all conclusions that happen to fit with their system of beliefs

Front 6

decisions under risk

Back 6

states of nature determine the outcomes of actions with known probabilities

Front 7

decisions under uncertainty

Back 7

probabilities of the states of nature that determine the outcomes of actions are unknown

Front 8

decisions under risk

Back 8

states of nature that determine the outcomes of actions occur with known probabilities

Front 9

framing effect

Back 9

making a difference decision depending on where people perceive themselves to be in relation to the curvilinear subjective utility function

Front 10

representativeness heuristic

Back 10

events that are typical of a class are assigned a high probability of occurrence

Front 11

law of small numbers

Back 11

people mistakenly expect even small samples to look random and mirror the probabilities obtained with large samples

Front 12

gamblers fallacy

Back 12

mistaken belief that future tosses of a coin are not independent of past events

Front 13

availability heuristic

Back 13

suggestion that if relevant examples can readily be retrieved from memory then the class of events must occur with high probability

Front 14

hindsight bias

Back 14

people confidently judge that they knew an event would occur after it occurs

Front 15

fast and frugal heuristic

Back 15

cognitive process that searches for minimal information and consists of building blocks that exploit evolved abilities and structures in the environment

Front 16

somatic maker hypothesis

Back 16

people experience bodily, visceral feelings that guide their decisions based on the anticipated pain or pleasure of the outcomes