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29 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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What is a forecast?
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A prediction of future events used for planning purposes.
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What is a time series?
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The repeated observations of demand for a service or product in their order of occurrence.
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What are the five basic patterns of most demand time series?
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1. Horizontal - the fluctuation of data around a constant mean.
2. Trend - the systematic increase or decrease in the mean of the series over time. 3. Seasonal - a repeatable pattern of increases or decreases in demand, depending on the time of day, week, month or season. 4. Cyclical - the less predictable, gradual increases or decreases in demand over longer periods of time (years or decades). 5. Random - the unforecastable variation in demand. |
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What is aggregation?
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The act of clustering several similar services or products so that companies can obtain more accurate forecasts.
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What is a stock-keeping unit (SKU)?
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An individual item or product that has an identifying code and is held in inventory somewhere along the value chain.
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What are judgment methods?
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A type of qualitative method that translates the opinions of managers, expert opinions, consumer surveys, and salesforce estimates into quantitative estimates.
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What are causal methods?
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A type of quantitative method that uses historical data on independent variables, such as promotional campaigns, economic conditions, and competitors actions, to predict demand.
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What is a time-series analysis?
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A statistical approach that relies heavily on historical demand data to project the future size of demand and recognizes trends and seasonal patterns.
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What is CPFR?
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Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishing is a nine-step process for value-chain management tat allows a manufacturer and its customers to collaborate on making the forecast by using the internet.
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What is the Delphi method?
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A process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.
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What is linear regression?
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A causal method in which one vairable (the dependent variable) is related to one or more independent variables by a linear equation.
Y=a+bX (Y is dependent variable; X is independent variable; a is Y-intercept of the line; b is slope) |
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Wat is a naive forecast?
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A time-series method whereby the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the current period, or Forecast = Dt.
So, if the actual demand for Wednesday is 35 customers, the forecasted demand for Thursday is 35 customers. If the actual demand on Thursday is 42 customers, the forecasted demand for Friday is 42 customers. |
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Simple Moving Average Method
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A time-series method used to estimate the average of a demand time series by averaging the demand for the n most recent time periods.
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What is a forecast error?
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The difference found by subtracting the forecast from actual demand for a given period.
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Weighted Moving Average Method
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A time-series method in which each historical demand in the average can have its own weight: the sum of the weights equals 1.0
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Exponential Smoothing Method
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A weighted moving average method that calculates the average of a time series by giving recent demands more weight than earlier demands.
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Trend-adjusted Exponential Smoothing Method
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The method for incorporating a trend in an exponentially smoothed forecast. With this approach, the estimates for both the average and the trend are smoothed, requiring two smoothing constants.
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Multiplicative Seasonal Method
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A method whereby seasonal factors are multiplied by an estimate of average demand to arrive at a seasonal forecast.
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Additive Seasonal Method
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A method in which seasonal forecasts are generated by adding a constant to the estimate of average demand per season.
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What is CFE?
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Cumulative sum of forecast errors --> a measurement of the total forecast error that assesses the bias in a forecast.
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What is a tracking signal?
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A measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting is accurately predicting actual changes in demand (Tracking Signal = CFE (Cumulative Sum of Forecast Errors) / MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation)
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What is a holdout set?
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Actual demands from the more recent time periods in the time series, which are set aside to test different models developed from the earlier time periods.
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Combination forecasts are?
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Forecasts that are produced by averaging independent forecasts based on different methods or different data or both.
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What is focus forecasting?
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A method of forecasting that selects the best forecast from a group of forecasts generated by individual techniques.
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Simple Moving Average Equation
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Weighted Moving Average Equation
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Are black peens really bigger?
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YES. The average black penis is 0.1" larger when erect than the average white penis.
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Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing formula
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Exponentially Smoothed Error Formula
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