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39 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Define Forecasting. What are the competitive advantages of forecasting?
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Predicting trends for the future. Interpret and analyze motivation behind and a trend and project it for the future. If tells you what, where, and when to buy.
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Explain Strategic Window
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A short period of time where a firms resources coincide with a market opportunity. The product, firm, and customer have to have the same timing.
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How to forecast
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Fashion forecasting is not random or trial and error. Study where trends originate. Knowledge is power and profit.
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Role of Fashion Forecasters
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Look for innovations, interpret signals, analyze why, predict movements
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Characteristics of short-term vs long-term forecasting
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Short term forecasts are seasonal trends, such as colors fabrics and small trends. Long term forecasts are usually made 5-10 years in advance. Include economic cycles, consumer trends, lifestyle trends, social trends.
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What factors should forecasters identify to analyze the pattern of the past trends and themes?
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Fashion scan : collect and analyze previous fashion trends.
Consumer scan: surveys, research, sells data. Social and Economic trends: link to fashion. Industry partners and competitors |
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Define Fashion.
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Styles that are popular in the present. Accepted by a wide audience.
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Define Trial Balloon.
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Designers experiments presents to merchants, press, and public to gauge effect and potential of a new idea.
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Characteristics of a fad, fashion, and classic.
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Classics never go obsolete and are accepted for an extended period of time. Fads are short lived and lack character to hold consumer attention. Fashions fall in between the two.
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Explain planned obsolescence: what is psychological obsolescence and what are the effects of planned psychological obsolescence?
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Psychological obsolescence is when customers lose and emotional connection with the garment and consider it out of style. Can happen do to fashion cycles of chances in social status. Planned obsolescence is when stores cycle out styles on purpose because they want people to replenish their clothes. May lessen the quality, change styles, or release a newer model. Creates a need for constant adaptation, frequent store visits, and excitement for new products.
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What is Zeitgeist?
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"Spirit of the Time" The attitudes and ideas that are common at a particular period in time.
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What does the theory of collective selection tell us?
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People choose among competing styles the thing that clicks or connects most with the zeitgeist.
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Ways to discover the Zeitgeist.
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designers, style leaders, fashion icons, market segments, celerity icons, fabrics,
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Explain the Nystroms framework.
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Recognize dominating events of the time such as wars, deaths, art movements, accidental events. Dominating ideas such as patriotism, gender equality, ect. What is the dominating social group. Dominating attitude (differentiation vs conformity). Dominating technologies.
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Three directional theories; characteristics, the source of ideas, source of change, speed of change.
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Trickle down: elite to lower class- moves slowly
Trickle up: trickles up from consumer, stylists, or subculture. Two theories can be integrated. Where styles are similar on all market levels. Median age and economic health of a country change this. Trickle across is when styles are the same at all economic levels. Forever 21 and Barneys are getting the same information at the same time. |
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Major criticism of the trickle down theory?
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It isn't really tickling down as much as people are trying to imitate the class they desire to be. Should be called chase and flight.
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Who are the gate keepers?
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Journalist, manufacturers, and retailers, they decided which will be accepted and which will be discarded. Includes celebrities.
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Examples of the trickle up theory?
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Black is Beautiful, Youth Culture, Sexual Revolution
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Rogers diffusion of innovation theory: when is the most critical stage?
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Innovators, rises to early adopters, accelerates to the majority, then declines to late adopters and then becomes obsolete with laggards. Most critical is initial introduction, without early adopters it will never happen.
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The percentage of innovators vs early adopters in the population.
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innovators: 2.5%
Early Adopters 13.5% Majority 40% |
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What are the characteristics of innovators vs opinion leaders.
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Innovators pay high price, are the very first. Opinion leaders, or early adopters, catch on but translate it to the general public.
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Characteristic of innovation
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relative advantage (improved), complexity (is it too difficult to use), perceived risk (is it worth it will it look good), compatibility, ability to test or try, observability
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What implication does the S-curve diffusion form provide?
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Shows how it changes through social groups and market segments as you can attach multiple S curves
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Define cohort.
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A group of consumers who share preferences and demographic characteristics.
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Define a chaotic period. Whys is it important?
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The period when a trend diffusion moves from one segment to another. Have to have the right timing because you can't introduce a product to a market segment to early or too late.
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Three stages of trend movement.
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Fringe, Trendy, and Mainstream
Fringe= innovation Trendy= early adopters join the innovators and introduce it to mainstream |
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Characteristics of a fad,
how do you expand the lifecycle of a fad? |
Fads have a short lifespan and not enough adopters. Move quickly through the diffusion process. Design adaptations or merging with other trends can expand the lifecycle.
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Bandwagoning Effect.
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The surge of interest catches the attention of people in the industry who recognize the potential of the trend and rush to produce it in their own lines.
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Why is labeling important. What do forecasters need to consider when labeling?
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Giving a trend a name makes it easy for people to talk about it. Forecasters should make sure it matches the spirit of the times, is original, and is catchy.
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What is flow?
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When a trend passes from group to group across social boundaries of age, income, and lifestyle.
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What is analysis and synthesis in forecasting?
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Analysis is when a trend is dissected to achieve a complete understanding of it's components.
Synthesis is a creative reintegration of the parts. |
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Examples of demographic characteristics.
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gender, age, ethnicity, income, occupation, marital status.
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Examples of psychographic characteristics.
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attitude, belief, value, preferences, shopping behavior, lifestyle.
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Explain geodemographic Characteristics.
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Geography + Demographics. clustering of people in neighborhoods allows researches to create an identity for the neighborhood.
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Define generational cohorts.
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A group of consumers who share the same age, location in history, and a collective mindset.
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Examples of generational cohorts.
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G.I (Government Issues) Generation, Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, Generation X, Generation Y
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Explain historical continuity; retro fashion/vintage fashion.
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A timeline for forecasters to use to gauge probability of fashion revivals. Vintage is clothes from a time period, retro is clothes with the nostalgia of a time period but modern updates.
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Explain Theory of a Shifting Erogenous Zone
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Different parts of the body are acceptable to show at different times, once it's been exposed too long it isn't as sexy and is covered.
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Explain pendulum swing of fashion, examples.
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Fashions that move back and forth from one style to another. Mini skirts vs Maxi Skirts. Skinny jeans vs Bell bottoms, Big purses vs clutches, ect.
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