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5 Cards in this Set

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  • Back
List five objections Sherden has to making predictions
1.Making unscientific predictons
2.Offering unqualified predictions
3.Not taking time to explain risks and assumptions and constraints
5.Unethical behavior of selling garbage predictions
What industry does Sherden praise as effective in predicting?
Weather: Sherden reports that thunderstorms now have a 70% to 80% accuracy rate in predictions, tornadoes 50% to 60%, and floods 55% to 60%.
what are some failed "doom" fortune sellers
Popluation bomb, by Paul Ehrlich
1990s Great Depression , by Ravi Batra
what is the problem with extrapolating?
one cannot predict future changes by extrapolating from the past. The future has a way of ignoring extrapolations, especially those which include exponential growth.
True or false
Forecasts are tainted with situational bias