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5 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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List five objections Sherden has to making predictions
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1.Making unscientific predictons
2.Offering unqualified predictions 3.Not taking time to explain risks and assumptions and constraints 4.Overconfidence 5.Unethical behavior of selling garbage predictions |
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What industry does Sherden praise as effective in predicting?
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Weather: Sherden reports that thunderstorms now have a 70% to 80% accuracy rate in predictions, tornadoes 50% to 60%, and floods 55% to 60%.
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what are some failed "doom" fortune sellers
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Popluation bomb, by Paul Ehrlich
1990s Great Depression , by Ravi Batra |
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what is the problem with extrapolating?
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one cannot predict future changes by extrapolating from the past. The future has a way of ignoring extrapolations, especially those which include exponential growth.
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True or false
Forecasts are tainted with situational bias |
True
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