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30 Cards in this Set
 Front
 Back
false positive

test incorrectly indicates the presence of a condition when the subject does not actually have that condition


false negative

test incorrectly indicates that the subject does not have a condition when the subject actually does have that condition


true positive

test correctly indicates that a condition is present when it really is present


true negative

test correctly indicates that a condition is not present when it really is not present


test sensitivity

the probability of a true positive


test specificity

the probability of true negative


positive predictive value

probability that the subject is a true positive given that the test yields a positive result


negative predictive value

probability that the subject is a true negative given the test yields a negative result


prevalence

proportion of subjects having some condition


rare event rule for inferential statistics

if, under a given assumption, the probability of a particular observed event is extremely small, we conclude that the assumption is probably not correct


event

any collection of results or outcomes of a procedure


simple event

an outcome or an event that cannot be further broken down into simpler components


sample space

for a procedure consists of all possible simple events, all outcomes that cannot be broken down any further


rule one: relative frequency approximation of probability

p(A)=number of times A occurred/number of times trial was repeated


rule two: classical approach to probability

requires equally likely outcomes
P(A)=number of ways A can occur/number of different simple events=s/n 

rule three:subjective probabilities

P(A) is estimated by using knowledge of the relevant circumstances


law of large numbers

as a procedure is repeated again and again, the relative frequency probability of an event tends to approach the actual probability


simulation

process that behaves inthe same ways as the procedure itself, so that similar results are produced


complement

of event A, denoted by A bar, consists ofa ll outcomes in which event A does not occur


rounding off probabilities

when expressing the value of a probability, either give the exact fraction or decimal or round off the final decimal results to three significant digits


compound event

any event combining two or more simple events


formal addition rule

P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A and B)


intuitive addition rule

to find P(A or B), find the sum of the number of ways event A can occur and the number of ways that event B can occur, adding in such a way that every outcome is counted only once. P(A or B) is equal to that sum, divided by the total number of outcomes in the sample space


disjoint

mutually exclusive
events A and B cannot occur at the same time 

rule of complementary events

P(A)+P(Abar)=1
P(Abar)=1P(A) P(A)=1P(Abar) 

tree digram

picture of the possible outcomes of a procedure, shown as line segments emanating from one starting point


independent

two events a and b are independent if the occurence of one does nto affect the probability of the occurence of the other


dependent

if a and b are not independent they are said to be dependent


formal multiplication rule

P(A and B)=P(A)*P(B/A)


intuitive multiplication rule

when finding the probability that event A occurs in one trial and event B occurs in the next trial, multiply the probability of event A by the probability of event B, but be sure that the probability of event B takes into account that previous occurence of event A
