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30 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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false positive
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test incorrectly indicates the presence of a condition when the subject does not actually have that condition
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false negative
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test incorrectly indicates that the subject does not have a condition when the subject actually does have that condition
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true positive
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test correctly indicates that a condition is present when it really is present
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true negative
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test correctly indicates that a condition is not present when it really is not present
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test sensitivity
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the probability of a true positive
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test specificity
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the probability of true negative
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positive predictive value
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probability that the subject is a true positive given that the test yields a positive result
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negative predictive value
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probability that the subject is a true negative given the test yields a negative result
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prevalence
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proportion of subjects having some condition
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rare event rule for inferential statistics
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if, under a given assumption, the probability of a particular observed event is extremely small, we conclude that the assumption is probably not correct
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event
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any collection of results or outcomes of a procedure
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simple event
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an outcome or an event that cannot be further broken down into simpler components
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sample space
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for a procedure consists of all possible simple events, all outcomes that cannot be broken down any further
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rule one: relative frequency approximation of probability
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p(A)=number of times A occurred/number of times trial was repeated
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rule two: classical approach to probability
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-requires equally likely outcomes
P(A)=number of ways A can occur/number of different simple events=s/n |
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rule three:subjective probabilities
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P(A) is estimated by using knowledge of the relevant circumstances
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law of large numbers
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as a procedure is repeated again and again, the relative frequency probability of an event tends to approach the actual probability
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simulation
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process that behaves inthe same ways as the procedure itself, so that similar results are produced
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complement
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of event A, denoted by A bar, consists ofa ll outcomes in which event A does not occur
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rounding off probabilities
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when expressing the value of a probability, either give the exact fraction or decimal or round off the final decimal results to three significant digits
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compound event
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any event combining two or more simple events
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formal addition rule
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P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)
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intuitive addition rule
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to find P(A or B), find the sum of the number of ways event A can occur and the number of ways that event B can occur, adding in such a way that every outcome is counted only once. P(A or B) is equal to that sum, divided by the total number of outcomes in the sample space
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disjoint
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-mutually exclusive
-events A and B cannot occur at the same time |
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rule of complementary events
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P(A)+P(Abar)=1
P(Abar)=1-P(A) P(A)=1-P(Abar) |
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tree digram
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picture of the possible outcomes of a procedure, shown as line segments emanating from one starting point
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independent
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two events a and b are independent if the occurence of one does nto affect the probability of the occurence of the other
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dependent
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if a and b are not independent they are said to be dependent
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formal multiplication rule
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P(A and B)=P(A)*P(B/A)
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intuitive multiplication rule
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when finding the probability that event A occurs in one trial and event B occurs in the next trial, multiply the probability of event A by the probability of event B, but be sure that the probability of event B takes into account that previous occurence of event A
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