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33 Cards in this Set

  • Front
  • Back
asymptotic efficiency
use model that has closest forecast error to the true model
assymptotically efficient
testing down
general to specific
unstructured data
cross sectional
structured data
time series
a regular deviation from the overall average that is tied to the periodicity of the data
multiplicative seasonality
seasonality is a percentage of base trend- can take log
additive seasonality
seasonality is a fixed level above or below base trend
sigma squared
number of right hand side variables
anscombe's quartet
four datasets with identical statistics, but very different graphs
aspect ratio
ratio of graph's height to its width- should equal .618
banking to 45 degrees
select aspect ratio to make the average absolute slope of the line segments equal to 45 degrees
bivariate scatterplots
graph of y versus x, for example
elaborate shadings and grids, decoration, and related nonsense
exploratory data analysis
learning about patterns in data without pretending to have too much a priori theory
golden ratio
aspect ratio of .618
provides a simple estimate of the probability density of a random variable
innovation outlier
driven by shocks whose effects naturally last more than one period
measurement outlier
reflect measurement errors
multiple comparisons
graphing a number of datasets in one figure
multiway scatterplot
scatterplot matrix- the set of all possible bivariate scatterplots
nondata ink
ink used to depict anything other than data points
pairwise scatterplot
=bivariate scatterplot
partial correlation
examine the correlation between x and y controlling for z
relational graphics
used to display relationships and flag anomalous observations
simple correlation
studies relationship between say, x and y
time series plot
series is graphed against time
exponential trend
log linear trend
in sample overfitting/data mining
including more variables in a model won't always improve its out of sample forecasting performance
higher penalty for higher degrees of freedom
higher probability of selecting the right model