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33 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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asymptotic efficiency
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use model that has closest forecast error to the true model
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AIC
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assymptotically efficient
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SIC
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consistent
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testing down
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general to specific
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unstructured data
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cross sectional
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structured data
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time series
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seasonality
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a regular deviation from the overall average that is tied to the periodicity of the data
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multiplicative seasonality
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seasonality is a percentage of base trend- can take log
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additive seasonality
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seasonality is a fixed level above or below base trend
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variance=
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sigma squared
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k=
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number of right hand side variables
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anscombe's quartet
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four datasets with identical statistics, but very different graphs
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aspect ratio
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ratio of graph's height to its width- should equal .618
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banking to 45 degrees
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select aspect ratio to make the average absolute slope of the line segments equal to 45 degrees
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bivariate scatterplots
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graph of y versus x, for example
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chartjunk
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elaborate shadings and grids, decoration, and related nonsense
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exploratory data analysis
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learning about patterns in data without pretending to have too much a priori theory
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golden ratio
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aspect ratio of .618
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histogram
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provides a simple estimate of the probability density of a random variable
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innovation outlier
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driven by shocks whose effects naturally last more than one period
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measurement outlier
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reflect measurement errors
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multiple comparisons
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graphing a number of datasets in one figure
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multiway scatterplot
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scatterplot matrix- the set of all possible bivariate scatterplots
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nondata ink
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ink used to depict anything other than data points
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pairwise scatterplot
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=bivariate scatterplot
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partial correlation
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examine the correlation between x and y controlling for z
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relational graphics
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used to display relationships and flag anomalous observations
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simple correlation
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studies relationship between say, x and y
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time series plot
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series is graphed against time
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exponential trend
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log linear trend
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in sample overfitting/data mining
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including more variables in a model won't always improve its out of sample forecasting performance
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SIC
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higher penalty for higher degrees of freedom
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consistency
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higher probability of selecting the right model
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