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9 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Rational Actor Model (choices)
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-calculate costs and benefits relative to goals
-choose actions that maximise expected utility -self-interested behaviour -clear preferences and order -full information |
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Organisation Process (outputs)
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-crisis: high threat, short time, surprise
-time/information constraints -fall back on "routines" -break problems down into components: different agencies for different bits; short term solutions |
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Poor empirical values of RAM
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People rarely conform to the expectations of a rational model because:
-they overvalue losses compared to gains -are more risk prone with losses but more risk averse with gains -"pouring good money after bad" - adjust reference points up rather than down |
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Individual irrationality
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Real but collectively we can be pretty accurate
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Structural faults of groupthink
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-insulation
-lack of impartial leader leads to biases -overestimation -closed mindedness -pressure leads to uniformity |
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"The State"
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Individuals (key leaders, intelligence agencies, military leaders and diplomats) acting on behalf of the state
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Avoiding groupthink
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-unbiased leader
- assign "critical evaluators" and Devil's Advocate -include outside experts |
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Ryan. K. Beasley
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"The biggest threat to international security is decision making errors by individuals, groups and organisations"
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Psychology in FP making
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People prefer simplicity and consistency, making them poor estimators; people are also more averse to loss than to gain seeking. Many decisions are also the result of a strong emotional response as studies have shown that humans genuinely have a tendency to feel before they think and act before they think.
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