2/3 And 2/8 Gov

Front 1

What are some characteristics of WMDs?

Back 1

- Conventional weapons, for the most part, can kill as many or more people
- However, WMDs are relatively cheap, and comes with a lot of power in a small package
- Because of WMDs, the strongest states have become vulnerable to the weakest states, and there is fundamentally nothing to make ourselves 100% secure
- They are easier to deliver, and a whole lot harder to defend against
- You can also make a lot more of these weapons

Front 2

What are some features of chemical weapons?

Back 2

- Toxic chemicals are used to contaminate or kill as many people as possible
- Choking, blistering, nerve agents
- Easiest to make, and can obtain these weapons legally
- However, weaponizing these agents are especially difficult, more so with nerve gases like sarin
- Isn't deserving of a name of WMD, because they haven't killed many people in history (debatable)

Front 3

What are biological weapons?

Back 3

- These are weapons that cause disease through naturally occurring or genetically modified organisms
- Most have never been used in war, because it could get your own soldiers sick as well
- More difficult to produce than chemical weapons, but not that much harder
- One must figure out a way to keep these organisms alive, and find an effective way to contaminate many people lethally
- However, if they are produced correctly, and delivered correctly, it can produce a ton of damage

Front 4

What are characteristics of nuclear weapons?

Back 4

- For now nuclear weapons are the most destructive
- hydrogen (fusion) and atomic (fission)
- atomic bombs are less powerful and easier to produce
- the hardest part to make is not the bomb itself, but the stuff that will blow up the bomb (fissile material)
- however, this is within the capability of any state that really tries

Front 5

What are other ways that WMD can spread?

Back 5

- active proliferation: give away weapons actively; this was common during the Cold War as acts of security alliance
- theft/smuggling and poor custodianship of WMD (so much plutonium and enriched uranium was made that we didn't know where some of it went; Soviet Union has bad security over these materials)
- brain drain: scientists leave their jobs and go to another country where they'd be paid better (dissolution of the USSR)

Front 6

What are the differences between Bush and Obama in terms of proliferation?

Back 6

- Bush: Deterrence, Containment, and Homeland Missile Defense
- Obama: Preventive War, Diplomacy, and Strong Sanctions

Front 7

What are the problems with Homeland Defense against WMDs?

Back 7

- Technical Problems: The difficulty and cost of building such defenses
- Fallacy of the Last Move: Defense assumes that the threat they're defending against is fixed. It is the mistake of forgetting that the offense makes the last move; even if we find a perfect defense against ballistic missiles, enemies can find a way of having nuclear warheads some other way.
- Defense is never 100% perfect

Front 8

How does containment work?

Back 8

- We can take action by preventing the spread of nuclear warheads, and not letting them get into non-nuclear states
- The NPT does not prevent the spread of technologies, but insures that these technologies would not be used for weapon production

Front 9

How does the NPT work?

Back 9

- export controls: countries with nukes will not give away their weapons, nor give away information on how to make these weapons
- material incentives: "the grand bargain" --> states that have weapons will provide civilian technology: there will be positive benefits for countries who won't build nukes
- transparency: IAEA inspections make sure that stuff is not being diverted for military purposes; these inspections solve the security dilemma and reduce incentives for non-nuke states to build nukes
- Norms: this treaty provides a place for public/open opposition against nuclear weapons; reinforces an international norm by making it clear that having these weapons is unacceptable

Front 10

What are the problems with the NPT?

Back 10

- Designed to limit only intentional spread
- Limited power of IAEA inspections (they are only allowed to search declared sites)
- Countries can sign the treaty, gain the benefits, and then drop out
- There is no enforcement in the treaty to get nuclear powers for the cessation of nuclear weapons
- Non-signatories cannot be punished, and these can spread nuclear weapons

Front 11

How can we address unintentional spread?

Back 11

- Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) Act

Front 12

What are the advantages of NPT?

Back 12

- More states would not have nuclear weapons/lessen Security Dilemma
- Help borderline states

Front 13

What are the problems with the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Act?

Back 13

- The money might be used the wrong way
- GIves countries the wrong picture; they would not do the dirty work of securing their undersecured facilities, and instead depend on others to do it for them
- Nevertheless, many countries have secured their stockpiles

Front 14

Explain the concept of deterrence in proliferation

Back 14

- Waltz says that it's okay to let these weapons spread, because our own weapons would serve as a deterrent; it'll make the world more restrained

Front 15

What are the problems with the concept of deterrence?

Back 15

- Deterrence may have worked in the Cold War era with the Soviets, but not at the present
- There may be "irrational dictators": but how irrational can dictators be?
- However, it may be difficult to deter terrorist groups (no capital, military bases, etc)

Front 16

But is it completely true that deterrence would not work against terrorists?

Back 16

- They might have assets which we could target
- They also might want to protect a homeland
- However, it is highly unlikely that terrorist groups could get their hands on such weapons (no state would give them these weapons at the risk of being traced)

- However, the uncomfortable thing about deterrence is the lack of a physical barrier

Front 17

Describe preventive action (counter-proliferation)

Back 17

- Getting rid of the threat by force

Front 18

Problems with preventive action

Back 18

- A truly effective preventive strike needs to get all the weapons: however, it is hard to get all the weapons as they are small and easy to conceal
- In terms of destroying weapon-making facilities, it has been found that it is extremely difficult to devastate these facilities and to hinder re-building (ex. 1981 Osirak)
- Self-fulfilling prophecy: If we're going to attack them, then why wouldn't they just use the weapons on us?