The Election of 1948 and the twenty years that followed were the years that saw the beginning of political polling on a wide scale, and how wrong it can be. Each election has its own unique characteristics, but the presidential elections of 1948 and 1960 will be looked at in detail, along with a general overview of the methods, usage of polling results, and the failure of the polls. Each election year mentioned had their own peculiarity in one or more of the general overview topics and will be discussed.
1948: The Election the Dewey “Won”
1948 was not a good year for political polling, especially the presidential polling. In 1948, There were three major polling companies that focused on political polling during that year’s presidential election. …show more content…
Late in 1948, the campaigns shifted. Progressive Party candidate Henry Wallace and States’ Rights Party candidate Strom Thurmond, both third party candidates in 1948, had a huge number of their supporter’s defect and support Truman in the waning weeks of the election (Gallup, 2002, para 4). This would be a big shift in the number of votes Truman would have received because both Thurmond and Wallace were both Democrats in their own right. Thurmond was a Southern Democrat or “Dixicrat” whose goal was to draw enough Southern and Midwestern Democrats to force the election to go to the House of Representatives (Gallup, 2002, para 2). Wallace’s Progressive Party was created out of the remnants of New Deal Democrats, though most New Dealers stayed in the Democratic Party (Churchwald, 1949, pg. 39). Also important to note that Henry Wallace was a Democrat in Truman’s Cabinet till he was dropped from it in 1946 and vowed to not leave the Democratic Party, until 1947, when he was fed up with Truman’s foreign policy that he forged a third party run against Truman (39). It is no wonder why votes from both candidates went to Truman when they defected because they were both Democrats, just with a different Democratic ideal. Both the changing political tide and false hope led to the polling errors of
1948: The Election the Dewey “Won”
1948 was not a good year for political polling, especially the presidential polling. In 1948, There were three major polling companies that focused on political polling during that year’s presidential election. …show more content…
Late in 1948, the campaigns shifted. Progressive Party candidate Henry Wallace and States’ Rights Party candidate Strom Thurmond, both third party candidates in 1948, had a huge number of their supporter’s defect and support Truman in the waning weeks of the election (Gallup, 2002, para 4). This would be a big shift in the number of votes Truman would have received because both Thurmond and Wallace were both Democrats in their own right. Thurmond was a Southern Democrat or “Dixicrat” whose goal was to draw enough Southern and Midwestern Democrats to force the election to go to the House of Representatives (Gallup, 2002, para 2). Wallace’s Progressive Party was created out of the remnants of New Deal Democrats, though most New Dealers stayed in the Democratic Party (Churchwald, 1949, pg. 39). Also important to note that Henry Wallace was a Democrat in Truman’s Cabinet till he was dropped from it in 1946 and vowed to not leave the Democratic Party, until 1947, when he was fed up with Truman’s foreign policy that he forged a third party run against Truman (39). It is no wonder why votes from both candidates went to Truman when they defected because they were both Democrats, just with a different Democratic ideal. Both the changing political tide and false hope led to the polling errors of