Cognitive bias is a limitation in objective thinking that is caused by the tendency for the human brain to perceive information through a filter of personal experience and preferences. Cognitive biases are often a result of an attempt to simplify information processing. Psychologists Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky introduced the concept of psychological bias in the early 1970s. They published their findings in their 1982 book, "Judgment Under Uncertainty."
Becuase of the sheer complexity of the world around us and the amount of information in the environment, it is necessary for the human brain to rely on some mental shortcuts in order to respond to incoming information quickly. Cognitive biases can be caused by a number of different things, but it is these mental shortcuts that often play a major contributing role. These mental shortcuts are known as heuristics, and while they can often be surprisingly accurate, they can also lead to errors in thinking. Social pressures, individual motivations, emotions, …show more content…
Predictive modeling tools, which use data mining and probability, can fall short. Analytics managers have learned the hard way about the pitfalls of deploying and using predictive modeling without following best practices, such as ensuring data quality, measuring the right information in the right way and performing reality checks. For example, pollsters and election forecasters predicted large margins of victory for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US Presidential election. They relied on weak polling data that resulted in an overconfidence of the potential outcome. The bias towards their predicted outcome clouded other information that contradicted their polling and created shock and confusion when Donald Trump was elected President of the United States instead of Hillary
Becuase of the sheer complexity of the world around us and the amount of information in the environment, it is necessary for the human brain to rely on some mental shortcuts in order to respond to incoming information quickly. Cognitive biases can be caused by a number of different things, but it is these mental shortcuts that often play a major contributing role. These mental shortcuts are known as heuristics, and while they can often be surprisingly accurate, they can also lead to errors in thinking. Social pressures, individual motivations, emotions, …show more content…
Predictive modeling tools, which use data mining and probability, can fall short. Analytics managers have learned the hard way about the pitfalls of deploying and using predictive modeling without following best practices, such as ensuring data quality, measuring the right information in the right way and performing reality checks. For example, pollsters and election forecasters predicted large margins of victory for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US Presidential election. They relied on weak polling data that resulted in an overconfidence of the potential outcome. The bias towards their predicted outcome clouded other information that contradicted their polling and created shock and confusion when Donald Trump was elected President of the United States instead of Hillary