method. Based on given two dimensional (2-D) training data for two classes, we created a classifier using discriminant function (which is the logarithmic version of Bayes formula) and used it to classify provided test data. We estimated the necessary statistical parameters, such as mean covariance and prior probabilities, from the training data set. We modeled two discriminant functions, which were further used on test data to discriminate between the two classes. We assumed that all the data…
Uncertainty in Economics and Other Reflections (1955) by G.L.S. Shackle (Cambridge: University Press). The book is divided into eighteen sections written between 1939 and 1953, each of which consists of a journal article. Among these sections, nine refer to the notions of expectation and uncertainty – main points of concentration of the present critical review – two are focused on interest rate, four on investment and unemployment, and the three remaining ones on a philosophy of economics.…
Probability concepts like faith, as it exists in the dim intuition, through school education, the surface of that understanding, intuition often conflicts that again with a different point of view, must be thinking more in-depth study to be able to understand. Hot Monty Hall problem, and that is one example. There is not a simple probability, long confused with so many people and academics, the more deeply ponder the problems found. Since 1990, 1991 flared up in hot to 2000, there are more…
Quantitative risk analysis is the one which follows the Qualitative analysis, and gives a numerical priority rating to project risks (PMI, 2009). Based on the PMBOK (PMI, 2013) quantitative risk analysis “… is the process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives (p. 333).” This is also a process for the PM and project team to get risk data to support making decisions, which can help to reduce project uncertainties (PMI, 2013, p. 333). Based on the…
ISE SUMMER PROJECT 2015 Probability, randomness, and chance should be central in any STEM pedagogical model. The concepts of randomness and chance play a very significant role in the essence of all sciences, and especially in the empirical sciences. Randomness is a critical component of biological modeling at many levels in a wide range of systems. The fundamental axioms of the quantum paradigm in physics are, by definition, essentially stochastic. Economics uses the randomness in human thought…
"Struck by Lightning: the curious world of probabilities" is a book written in 2005 by Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, an award-winning Canadian statistician and author. Jeffrey S. Rosenthal graduated from Woburn Collegiate Institute in 1984, received his B.Sc. in mathematics, physics and computer science in Toronto in 1988. He later received his PhD in mathematics in Harvard University in 1992. He performs music and improv. comedy as well as being an author and supervisor of student projects. "Struck by…
The two main probability designs are, probability and nonprobability sampling. Probability sampling know what the exact probability of each selection would be whereas with nonprobability sampling it is unclear. Nonprobability, selecting each sample unit is not known, leaving the selection up to the researcher. In the case of Santé Fe Grill they should rely on probability sampling because each unit is identified. Under probability sampling, there is stratified random sampling. Stratified random…
been a concern in the history of probability and statistics. In the act of tossing a coin, throwing a die to obtain a 6, either a machine work or fails, a student passing an exam or not and so on are events whose end results are either a yes or no, good or bad, present or absent, success or failure, as well as a win or loss. Generally, the history of probability and statistics, describe these activities to follow a Bernoulli distribution of the discrete probability distributions where an…
• What information did you not know before? I actually did know some of these items, or at least the terms, previously but not in the sense that they were presented to us this week. I was familiar with vertices, edges, and the formal notation of a graph. I didn’t have an appreciation for how graphs could be applied to creating and managing associations with various items by applying them as vertices or edges in a way beyond their representation as numeric coordinates. • What information was…
ingredients are the three laws of probability well stirred with the ladle of the imperfect shuffle, Factor X, and seasoned with the spice of bluff. Hence every Poker player should understand thoroughly the theory and practice of percentage. Law of Single Event. The probability of a favorable event equals one divided by the number of possible events, provided that every possible event has an equal chance of happening as in getting a certain card. For example, what is the probability of getting…