Forecasting

Case 1: Forecasting In this section, the paper focuses on analyzing historical data with a view of forecasting expected monthly sales. The case requires monthly sales to be projected, given the assumption that the actual monthly sales are correlated with the number of hits on the company’s website in the previous month. Consequently, the historical data on actual sales and number of hits are both used to forecast the expected sales over a period of three months. Notably, forecasting entails…

operation for three years and has been a popular destination for tourists and locals in the country. To better forecast future sales and plan for future growth proprietor Theotis Jones has provided the following sales data analysis and develop a forecasting model. C’mon Back Restaurant has seen a 6% growth year over year in the first three years of operation. This is see in the adjacent chart of yearly sales per year. Looking over the data we can see that there is a seasonal pattern that…

is much more difficult to estimate the expected sales of each individual product (Novak, 2006) (Stellwagen, 2015). For example, a computer electronics manufacturing firm should forecast the total expected sales of personal computers instead of forecasting the sales of computers with different specifications…

Background The oil crisis began in October 1973 when Arab oil producers imposed an embargo. As a result the oil prices rocketed from $3 per barrel to $12 by 1974. This disaster was followed by the second energy crisis in 1979. At that time Pierre Wack (1922-1997) was an unconventional French oil executive who developed the scenario process. His success in scenario planning enabled the Royal Dutch/Shell oil giant to anticipate both of these oil catastrophes. Why scenarios Pierre Wack agreed that…

Part 1 A. My StrengthFinder results in order are communication, analytical, harmony, futuristic, and woo. My results accurately describe me and have face value. According to StrengthFinder, people with communication as a theme “generally find it easy to put their thoughts into words.” I feel this describes me very well. I have always been outgoing and have not had a problem with speaking my mind. Being older now, one of the stories older family members tell me all the time is how outgoing I have…

occurrence of a black swan event—one that is deemed highly improbable, but causes great consequences (Taleb). The Black Swan provides a philosophical analysis on the value of factual and historical knowledge, the fallacies associated with prediction and forecasting, and the role of serendipity in the advancement of society. Through anecdotes and examples, Taleb instructs readers to…

Most organizations think of Human Resources (HR) as a department that makes employment decisions, strictly administrative functionalities. HR has evolved over the years and has now become more of a strategic partner rather than the sole purpose of recruitment, hiring, and termination. However, when it comes to employment services, the Human Resources department must be well-rounded and knowledgeable in all facets of the process. Human resources is no longer used exclusively for hiring…

Strengths Sometimes it can be difficult to decide yourself what your strengths are. However, I was able to take the Gallup Strength Finder test, and it really helped me with realizing my assets. Some strengths listed really did describe me well, while some others I had a hard time seeing. These skills can be used throughout many things in my life such as school, on the court, and even coaching. I plan to bring these characteristics into my future job, and I plan to continue developing my…

In the book “the Signal and the noise”, author Nate Silver talks about prediction from many different angles. Silver explains how prediction is a part of our everyday life and how it affects us. From math to history, inside of a class room or on a court/field, prediction is something we deal with on a day to day basis unconsciously. Silver talks about the benefits of failure and how failure is helpful in the long run with making predictions. Throughout the years we have made progress with…

In Australia the government requires the testing of students in Years 3, 5, 7 and 9 annually. They are tested on several aspects of English and Mathematics each year in order to assess their strengths and weaknesses in reading, writing, language conventions - such as spelling, grammar, and punctuation - and numeracy. “NAPLAN” stands for National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy. All students take the same test for their individual year level, and each stage/year gets progressively more…