Autocorrelation

poor, but adjusted R square is lower than R square, so there is no need for introduction of other factors to explain the changes in dependent variable. Durbin Watson statistic is 1,983, which is close to value of 2 and indicates that there is no autocorrelation. Table5: Model summary – Irrational predictors Model R R Square Adjusted R Square…

4. Empirical results In this section we discuss the empirical results of the VAR model analysis described in the previous section. In subsection 4.1 we analyse significance of coefficients in the model and apply Granger Causality test. In subsection 4.2 we present the results of impulse response functions analysis and variance decomposition. Afterwards, we turn to subsection 4.3 to test reliability of the VAR model. 4.1 Testing for significance and Granger-causality According to Wald test…

coin tosses, and the previous five outcomes were all Heads. Under the gambler’s fallacy, the person would think that the next outcome is most likely to be Tails and would then bet for Tails. The gambler’s fallacy is the false belief in “negative autocorrelation of a non-autocorrelated random sequence of outcomes” (Sundali & Croson, 2006). In simpler words, it is the tendency to perceive an outcome as less likely to occur if it occurred more frequently than normal previously. The most famous case…

This indicates that momentum and traded liquidity are not the omitted variables and not related to risk factors of mutual funds. Fama-French model cannot be improved though five-factor model. Compared this three models, Fama-French model has highest adjusted R-square and lowest probability of F-statistic. Therefore, the most suitable model to capture the performance of mutual funds is Fama-French model. However, Fama-French model is not so good. Firstly, the β of ExRm and HML is insignificant,…

Proactive hazard mitigation planning (HMP) that utilizes vulnerability and resilience assessments, mitigation, and adaptation strategies can aid in the reduction of disaster impacts (Frazier, Thompson, and Dezzani 2014; Frazier, Wood, and Yarnal 2010a; Berke and Godschalk 2009; Burby 2006; Burby et al. 2000). It is not possible to mitigate everywhere within the community when large numbers of societal assets are exposed to a hazard; therefore, targeting mitigation allows agencies with limited…

This paper examines the misconception and the false belief of the investor in the game of roulette under the influence of the two theories of probability under behavioural finance: Gamblers fallacy and Hot hand theory. This paper’s first contribution is to identify and outline the existence of this bias belief previously demonstrated and then further demonstrate the existence of the biasness in an individual mindset in the game of roulette. This paper aims to carry out a study to differentiate…

batch means, replication/deletion, and the Mean Squared Error Reduction (MSER) technique. The goal of these methods is to produce valid confidence intervals (CI’s) in the presence of serial correlation. In our analysis, we will use the lag k autocorrelation to find a point at which the observations are…

Baseball is a game of extreme statistics, especially in the MLB. Sabermetrics is becoming a very popular cultural term for average Americans. After the release of Moneyball a film that showed the importance of statistical analysis in baseball, the culture was hooked on Sabermetrics. This project will analyze earned run average (ERA) and some of the variables that play a pertinent role in determining a great ERA. ERA is the most popular metric used to decide whether a pitcher is deemed great,…

variables of this research was fulfilled of homoskedacity. It was shown with scatterplot result from the regression analysis that indicated the error distribution spreading at zero. Durbin-Watson value in this research was nearly +2, showed that autocorrelation had free model (Table…

An inverted fluorescence microscope is an inverted compound light microscope equipped with modules to internally separate the different wavelengths of light, and direct them to respective detection channels. Its main components include a light source, an objective, a filter cube and a detection unit, which can be an eyepiece or a camera (Fig.1). Filter cube is a component which separates a fluorescence microscope from a light microscope. It consists of one excitation filter, one emission filter…