Weeks 11 + 12

Front 1

adaptation

Back 1

• a response to global warming and climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and biological systems

Front 2

mitigation

Back 2

• consists of actions to limit the magnitude or rate of long-term climate change
• generally involves reductions in human emissions of GHGs

Front 3

UNFCCC

Back 3

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Front 4

UNFCCC - framework ratification

Back 4

• nations have formally adopted the Protocol in their domestic political institutions
• nations formally committed to meeting their specific GHG emission targets and are open to external review
• have to report on progress annually

Front 5

How does a protocol come into force?

Back 5

• when more than 55 countries representing over 55% of GHG emissions have ratified the protocol

Front 6

general principles of UNFCCC

Back 6

• protect climate system for the benefit of present and future generations
• take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent, or minimize the causes of climate change
• cooperate to promote a supportive international economic system that would lead to sustainable economic growth and development in all parties

Front 7

UNFCCC commitments

Back 7

• written objectives and goals for each country

• international politics of climate change are portrayed in terms of North-vs-South

• developing countries = adapt, developed countries = mitigate

Front 8

commitments for developed countries

Back 8

• adopt national policies to reduce GHG emissions
• inform the Convention of progress
• main commitment: provide new financial resources for developing countries to meet their commitments
• more responsible for mitigation

Front 9

Targets of 1992

Back 9

• goal: reduce GHG emissions to levels of 1990 by 200
• emissions increased
• very few developed countries have shown real promise

Front 10

mitigation techniques of UNFCCC countries

Back 10

• France - moved toward nuclear power
• UK - shifted to gas-fired electricity generation; decline of manufacturing industry during 1990s
• Germany - Berlin wall was destroyed, coal power stations closed in former E. Germany

Front 11

Kyoto Protocol (1997)

Back 11

• most publicly recognized international environmental agreement
• very little progress in reducing GHG in developed countries
• United States did not participate
• target was not met globally
• agreement now offers flexibility in how countries may meet their targets - each country is defining its own target

Front 12

developments since Kyoto

Back 12

• integrating GHGs other than CO2 - CH4, N2O
• 2008-2012 target: reduce GHG emissions by 5.2% in developed countries

Front 13

carbon market

Back 13

• international emissions trading
• countries with higher carbon emissions can 'buy the right' to release CO2 from countries that have lower carbon emissions
• determines how much GHGs we can emit
• countries can buy and sell carbon units, prices will vary with supply and demand
• developed countries can invest in developing countries' green industry and be rewarded with carbon units

Front 14

Ice sheets: Greenland

Back 14

• 77% of the loss originating from coastal glacial ice
• half is lost by surface ablation
• half lost by calving

Front 15

Ice sheets: Antarctica

Back 15

• projections: substantial increase in snowfall mainly due to warmer and damper polar regions
• loses virtually all its accumulation by submarine melt from its fringing ice shelves
• negative net balance overall

Front 16

Arctic sea ice

Back 16

• late-summer sea ice will disappear within the next 20 years

• winter sea ice will reach very low volumes

Front 17

permafrost (Arctic)

Back 17

• > 33% of global soil organic carbon is stored in permafrost
• major climate mechanisms: vegetation-albedo, GHG forcing
• increase of CO2 and CH4 is positive feedback loop

Front 18

earth's sensitivity to GHG

Back 18

• GHG = 2 x CO2
• uncertainties about size of feedbacks
• water vapour, snow albedo, ice albedo, clouds albedo (-)
• not as sensitive as it should be - global temperature is not doubling
• sensitivity changes with location

Front 19

when do we see changes in climate?

Back 19

• change in length of seasons

• winter is most affected - shorter duration

• longer summers

Front 20

"Medieval warm period is just as warm as today"

Back 20

• Myth - factors causing the changes are different

• MWP mainly due to sunspots, GHG forcing was not significant

• LIA - combination of solar and volcanic forcing

• today - most GHG forcing

Front 21

"CO2 concentration in the air comes mostly from volcanoes"

Back 21

• myth - amount of CO2 emitted from volcanoes is very little compared to anthropogenic emissions
• explosive large volcanoes - tephra ash causes cooling with H2SO4 and CO2
• increase albedo of earth to have cooling at surface

Front 22

"They predicted global cooling in the 1970s"

Back 22

• period of climate stabilization
• post-WWII = less industrialization
• less sunspots
• less volcanic activity

Front 23

climate scientists avoid the subject of water vapour

Back 23

• water vapour is most abundant and important GHG
• humans are not responsible for directly emitting this gas - it has its own cycle
• water vapour does not control the earth's temperature, climate controls temperature which controls water vapour
• water vapour is a consequence, not a cause

Front 24

cause vs. effect of water vapour

Back 24

• temp increase by 1º from CO2 will cause water vapour to increase the temp by another 1º
• water vapour feedback loop makes temp changes caused by CO2 bigger
• different timescale - different residence times

Front 25

"Current global warming is part of a natural cycle"

Back 25

• Milankovich cycles - orbital timescale - 100,00 years, moving towards cooling
• tectonic timescales - icehouse / greenhouse - should be accumulating ice and see a cooling trend

Front 26

"CO2 concentration doesn't lead, it lags"

Back 26

• longer timescale - temperature leading the way to CO2 concentration (by ice cores)

• no moving toward reverse order - CO2 taking the lead of temperature changes

Front 27

hazard

Back 27

• possible source of danger
• based on frequency and severity of an event

Front 28

exposure

Back 28

• the presence of people, livelihoods, environmental services and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be negatively affected

• structure and content values

• number of people

• reinsurance costs

Front 29

vulnerability

Back 29

• predisposition to be adversely affected or weaknesses in a security program
• hazard susceptibility

Front 30

risk

Back 30

• the potential for loss, damage, or destruction of an asset as a result of a threat exploiting a vulnerability
• risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability

Front 31

resilience

Back 31

• The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions