Ir 210: Analytical Tools (Not Mine)

Front 1

Name all level one tools.

Back 1

Rationality/bounded rationality
Biological explanation
Motivation and Personality type
Perceptions/Images
Belief system
Analogical Reasoning
Poli-heuristic theory
Prospect theory

Front 2

Rationality

Back 2

maximize benefits and minimize costs -- minimizes the importance of culture, ideology, values, beliefs, etc.

Front 3

Bounded Rationality

Back 3

• We cannot know all of our options
• Goal shifts from value maximization to satisficing – settling for what you can get
• So then what influences your choices?
o Previous experiences/intuition/interest and values
o These help us to eliminate options
o “Muddling through” simplify the process

Front 4

Biological Explanations

Back 4

• Tension between reason and passion – behavior is linked to biological traits

Front 5

Motivation and Personality Types

Back 5

• Leaders with a need for power: seek power positions; dominate others; argumentative; show little humanitarian concern; paranoid that others want their power; take no great risks
• Need for affiliation: seeks approval of others
o Loyalty – indecisiveness - less inclined to be an empire builder due to concern for others
• Need for achievement:
o Takes only moderate risks – fears greater loss

Front 6

Perceptions/Images

Back 6

• Robert Jervis work is best known research in these areas
• Images of world → beliefs, stories, myths, stereotypes, misperceptions, etc.
• Images change due to context
o Images – shape perceptions of individuals, state and events

Front 7

Belief System

Back 7

Operational code made up of philosophical and instrumental beliefs.

Front 8

Analogical Reasoning

Back 8

• Look at similar situations or ones you think to be similar
• Analogies and lessons – elements of belief systems
• Provide: Definitions of situations, policy recommendations and predictions
• Cognitive guide to be used in novel FOPO situations

Front 9

Poli-heuristic Theory*

Back 9

• Poly = many
• Heuristic = shortcuts
• Two stage decision process
o Stage One: a list of options is narrowed down by experiences and values of the decision maker
o Stage Two : remaining alternatives are reviewed with costs and benefits in mind

Front 10

Prospect Theory

Back 10

• Environment of loss: Willing to take risks
• Environment of gain: Less willing to take risks

Front 11

List the level two factors -

Back 11

Geographic factors, power map/political structure, economic systems, political culture/history/tradition, power capabilities, domestic politics

Front 12

Geographic Factors

Back 12

1)
• Location/geopolitics
• Consider how the foreign policy of states near strategic waterways or near great power are shaped by these attributes
• Strategic locations: gulf of Aden, Indian Ocean, South China Sea, The Artic
• Geopolitics: Control of territory or control of access points

2)
• Size-Tangible measures - all relative to size of country

3)
o Oil-water-food-forests-minerals
o Strategic dependency – dependent on one mineral
o Structural dependence – dependent on everything
o Work of Thomas Homer – Dixon: Resource scarcity – resource capture and increased conflict

Front 13

Power Map/Constitution and Political Structure

Back 13

How is the country constructed? Constitution? Various by country. Sets up who has power domestically. EX: In US - Congress has power to declare war.
• Best known political structure argument
Is it RAM (rational actor model), Organization model (Standard operational procedures), or bureaucratic model (issue put on table, everyone fights it out)

Front 14

Bureaucratic indifference

Back 14

• Michael Barnett - critical of world for not responding to genocide in Rwanda, after joining security council he become indifferent to criticisms, accept organization

Front 15

Economic Systems

Back 15

• Capitalist/LIEO
• State capitalism
• Corporatism – government owns a lot of private and citizen sector
• Major source of wealth: agrarian, resource based, industrial, financial services, technology – communication

Front 16

• Reich’s Myths for American political culture

Back 16

o Mob at he gates – idea that everyone wants to come into US
o Benevolent community – Community takes care of you, not gov’t!
o Triumphant individual – anyone can make it to the top
o Rot at the top – we hate career politicians

Front 17

Power Capabilities

Back 17

• Military: Hard power/capacity and will
• Economic: wealth, natural, and human resources, technology and industrial capacity
• Political: Control over governance/rule-making
• Activism and leadership in global institutions
• Prestige and moral suasion
• Cultural: control over meaning (What’s the god life? Influence of America film, etc.)

Front 18

Domestic Politics

Back 18

• Electoral calculations
• Coalition – building for policy-making and election
• Role of interest groups and funders

Front 19

Two hybrid tools?

Back 19

Tool: Second-Image Reversed
• How do domestic factors influence international relations?

Bureaucratic Indifference Theory
• Combines individual beliefs and organizational cultures
• His experience in the UN security council
• Critical of UN failure of Rwanda
• When you become a member of any organization you become an advocate of this organization – Indifferent to criticism

Front 20

Level three tools?

Back 20

level of anarchy and order, distribution of power, international obligations, regimes as governing arrangements

Front 21

Level of anarchy and order

Back 21

• Anarchy ---------- World Government
• More regimes = more order
• No common power

Front 22

The Distribution of Power

Back 22

• Classic balance of power
• Cold War: Tight Bipolarity – both sides encourage defections/weaken the other side/constrain actions of allies
** In a country’s FP they want FLEXIBILITY and INDEPENDENCE
• Détente: Loose bipolarity
• Multi-polarity
• Regionalism (regional poles)
• Concert (4/5 majors powers ruling the world) – In a concert system, states will concentrate their FP’s on other concert powers.
• Nonpolarity (corporations/NGOs have power. Not just states!)
• Hegemony/Empire

Front 23

International Obligations

Back 23

• Formal treaties
• Informal traditions, connections – kinship
Reciprocity

Front 24

Regimes as Governing Arrangements

Back 24

• Regional regimes/global regimes
• Govern in specific policy areas from cooperative research to regulation
• Issue specific regimes: IAEA, Trade, Human Rights
• Regimes work well if the major powers support them

Front 25

Global factors?

Back 25

Global media/interent, natural world, social media, global financial markets, spread of ideas