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28 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
demand planning
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the combined process of forecasting and managing customer demands to create a planned pattern of demand that meets the firm's operational and financial goals
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demand forecasting
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a decision process in which managers predict demand and make operational plans accordingly
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demand management
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a proactive approach in which managers attempt to influence either the pattern or consistency of demand
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stable pattern
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a consistent horizontal stream of demands
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seasonality and cycles
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regular demand patterns of repeating highs and lows
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trend
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the general sloping tendency of demand, either upward or downward, in a linear or non linear fashion
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shift or step change
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a one-time change in demand, usually due to some external influence on demand
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autocorrelation
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the correlation of current demand values with past demand values
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forecast error
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the difference between a forecast and the actual demand
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grassroots forecasting
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a technique that seeks inputs from people who are in close contact with customers and products
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executive judgement
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forecasting techniques that use input from high-level experienced managers
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historical analogy
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a forecasting technique that uses data and experience from similar products to forecast the demand for a new product
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marketing research
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a forecasting-technique that bases forecasts on the purchasing patterns and attitudes of current or potential customers
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Delphi method
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forecasts developed by asking a panel of experts to individually and repeatedly respond to a series of questions
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time series analysis models
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Forecasting models that compute forecasts using historical data arranged in the order of occurence
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naive model
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a simple forecasting approach that assumes that recent history is a good predictor of the near future
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moving average
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a forecasting model that computes a forecast as the average of demands over a number of immediate past periods
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weighted moving average
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a forecasting model that assigns a different weight to each period's demand according to its importance
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exponential smoothing
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a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand that occurred farther back in time
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smoothing coefficient
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a parameter indicating the weight given to the most recent demand
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regression analysis
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a mathematical approach for fitting an equation to a set of data
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simulation models
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sophisticated mathematical programs that offer forecasters the ability to evaluate different business scenarios that might yield different demand outcomes
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focused forecasting
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a combination of common sense inputs from frontline personnel and a computer simulation process
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forecast accuracy
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the measurement of how closely the forecast aligns with the observations over time
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forecast bias
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the tendency of a forecasting technique to continually over predict or under predict demand.
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mean absolute deviation
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the average size of forecast errors, irrespective of their directions
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postponable product
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a product designed so that it can be configured to its final form quickly and inexpensively once actual customer demand is known
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collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment
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a method by which supply chain partners periodically share forecasts, demand plans and resource plans in order to reduce uncertainty and risk in meeting customer demand.
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