Edexcel Geography A2- Energy Security

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Energy is fundamental

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Energy is fundamental to human existence. Energy for transport, heating, cooking & communications.

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Fossil Fuels

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85% energy in 2007 was via fossil fuels. Our dependence on fossil fuels only started a few hundred years ago. Before industrialisation most energy was renewable e.g. windmills and wood (biomass)

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Renewable Supply

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Renewable energy global supply: >Wind turbines (0.3%) >Solar (0.5%) >Wave power >Tidal power >HEP (3%) >Geothermal (0.2%)

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Non-Renewable Supply

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Non-Renewable energy global supply: >Coal (25%) >Oil (37%) >Gas (23%) >Unconventional oil and coal (e.g. tar sands, heavy oil, oil shales, lignite & peat)

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Recyclable Energy Supply

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Recyclable energy global supply: >Biomass (4%) >Biofuels (0.2%) >Nuclear power (6%)

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Environmental Consequences of Energy

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Environmental consequences of three energy sources: >Renewable sources produce no CO2 and don’t directly contribute pollution >Non-renewables emit CO2 and cause global warming >Recyclable biomass/biofuels emit CO2 but reabsorb it when regrown – making them close to ‘carbon neutral’ >Nuclear does not emit CO2 but has significant environmental concerns about radioactive uranium, and long term disposal problem

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Physical Geography Resources

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Physical Geography determines access to resources. The UK ended up with rich reserves of all FFs. With large tidal ranges of up to 15m and some of EU strongest winds the UK has potential for renewable energy. However high latitude = low solar potential. Tectonic areas have higher geothermal potential.

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Energy Sources Concentrated Geographically

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Energy sources concentrated geographically: >2005 four countries made up 70%+ global uranium production for nuclear power – led by Canada (28%) and Australia (23%) >By 2025 60% of world oil will come from Middle East >Currently 27% of proven gas is in Russia

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Energy Poverty

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Geography means some countries have vast energy surplus (e.g. Saudi Arabia) but others suffer from energy poverty. Increasingly there is a mismatch between demand and supply of FFs. Some countries have no reserves (e.g. Mali). Mali has high solar potential, but solar tech is expensive.

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Energy Mix Factors

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Energy mix of country result of factors: >Physical: availability of N Sea natural gas = dash for gas 1990’s >Public Perception: 50-60s nuclear +, but after Chernobyl in 1986 nuclear - >Politics: fears over politics of gas from Russia >Technology: solar efficiency 5-40% between 1980-2007 >Economics: Wind power competing with FFs, and about same price >Environment: global warming = renewables

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UK electricity production

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UK electricity production grown, significant shift to gas 1987, and decline in Nuclear 1997 due to plant closures Different energy sources are used by different parts of economy: (2006 Mn tonne of oil equivalent) >Industry 2 Coal, 12 Gas, 7 Oil, 10 Electricity >Homes 1 Coal, 31 Gas, 3 Oil, 10 Electricity >Transport 0 Coal, 0 Gas, 59 Oil, 1 Electricity

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Energy Demand 50% /\

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Energy demand projected to grow 50% 2005-2030 Growth expected 0.7% in developed countries & 2.5%+ in emerging countries (e.g. China). China coal used 17% ^ per year 2002-05. Most predictions show reliance of FFs instead of switch to renewable.

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Reliant On Fossil Fuels

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Reliance of FFs due to: >Nuclear plants cost a lot, and take 10 years to build >Renewable sources e.g. wind seen as unreliable >Solar proved difficult to ‘up-scale’ >China & India own 10%+ world coal, coal stations cheap and easy to build = convenient

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Moderate Security

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Moderate security: >Ability to develop reliable, cost-efficient renewable sources >Strong linked to physical factors, such as wind, sun, water supply and topography (surface features)

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High Security

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High security: >Economically recoverable reserves of coal, oil and gas >Technology is also required to extract & process FFs to make use of them

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Low Security

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Low security: >Safe & secure transport by sea (oil, coal, LNG) or pipeline (oil & gas) >Routes can be disrupted by war, conflict, political problems, piracy and weather

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Moderate Security (2)

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Moderate security: >Ability to buy fossil fuels from ‘friendly’ sources on international markets at a reasonable price >Supply can to disrupted by conflict and technical extraction difficulties

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Energy Security Square

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[IMAGE HERE]

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Energy Pathways

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Countries reliable on sources of FFs transported along international energy pathways are at greater risk of energy insecurity. Explains why countries e.g., France (86% electricity supply) and Japan (30%) have invested in Nuclear.

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Energy Pathways more significant

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As FFs become concentrated in few countries, pathways used to transport them will be more significant. Western Europe more dependant of Russian gas, given Russia new political power & foreign currency. Gas pipeline pass through former soviet republics e.g. Ukraine. In 2006 & 09 gas supplies to Ukraine were cut off over disputes = down-line gas in France & Germany to fall 20-30%.

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Nord Stream

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The Nord Stream pipeline along N Europe should increase security of supply, but planned South Stream and Nabucco pipelines run through politically troubled areas. Europe fear Russia will be able to ‘name price’ for gas (= Russia political power). UK gas production peaked in 2000s and is now in decline, will increasingly rely on gas imports. (2015 77% is imported)

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2030 Oil Flows

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By 2030 30%+ world oil will flow through narrow Straits of Hormuz in Persian Gulf. Historically area of conflict (e.g. Iran-Iraq war 1980-8, Gulf War 1990-1, 2003 invasion of Iraq).

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Oil and Gas under attack

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Oil & Gas pipelines and super tankers are vulnerable to attack during war & from terrorism. Super tankers are also vulnerable to piracy, Somali pirates seized super tanker MV Sirius Star in 2008. Straits of Malacca are piracy hotspot. Growing concern over how much oil passes through narrow ‘choke-points’ and how easy is to stop them.

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Disruption and Oil prices

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Risk of disruption to energy supplies can be seen by past oil prices. Since 1970 oil price has spiked four times and each time period of economic recession has followed. High oil price costs industry = inflation and rising prices. People spend proportionally more on energy and less on other goods. This shows, or reverses, economic growth.

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Energy price = political & economic risks

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As energy is fundamental to developed world, high energy price ^ political and economic risks: >High petrol prices in 2007-8 contributed to collapse in sales of SUVs in USA & major difficulties for car companies e.g. Ford >UK in 2000, petrol price rise le to protests and blockades forcing 3,000 petrol stations to close >In 2008, 70,000 lorry drivers blocked the Franco-Spanish border leading to panic buying in shops, as supplies of food dwindled. These show importance of energy supply.

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Government Energy Policy

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Governments can get energy policy wrong. Since 2007, S Africa has suffered from periodic power blackouts = ‘load shedding’. Eskom doesn’t have enough generating capacity to meet demand, result of underinvestment. In 2008: >Gold and platinum mines cut back production, or shut due to electricity shortage >FDI was reduced due to supply fears >Estimate 2% trimmed from economic growth >Blackouts caused traffic chaos and malls to close. Planning power plants, but take time to build.

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Oil Exploration

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Search for secure Oil and Gas led to exploration in difficult areas: >Extreme cold environments e.g. inside Arctic Circle >Deep water offshore locations e.g. west of Shetland >Politically unstable locations e.g. Sudan and Puntland in N Somalia

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Non-conventional Fossil Fuels

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There is growing interest in non-conventional fossil fuels e.g. tar sands, oil shales, shale gas and heavy oil. Exploration in these locations raises environmental issues.

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Unconventional – Shetland

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>Location: West of Shetland oil field, UK. >Type: Light oil (250-600m barrels) & gas. >Technical issue: Oil pumped from floating production ship in 400-600m of water & transferred to shuttle tanker. >Environmental issue: Lack of fixed production platform & pipelines ^ risk of spill. >Price: 10+ US$ per barrel

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Unconventional – Athabasca

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>Location: Athabasca tar sands, Canada (140,000 km2) >Type: Sand and bitumen (tar) mix (170 bn barrels) >Technical Issues: Injecting steam into ground to liberate oil, may reduce environmental impact >Environmental issue: Opencast mined by removing boreal forest & peat bogs. 2-5 m3 of water used for 1m3 of oil; natural gas used to heat tar sands and recover oil >Price: 40 US$ per barrel

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Unconventional – Orinoco

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>Location: Orinoco heavy oil, Venezuela >Type: Heavy oil sands (200+ bn barrels) >Technical issues: Challenging physical geography and difficult to transport oil; much is shipped as an oil-&-water mix called Orimulsion >Environment issues: Orinoco river and delta are fragile, biodiverse tropical easily be damaged by oil exploitation >Price: 40 US$ per barrel

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Unconventional – Green River

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> Location: Green river basin, USA, oil shales >Type: Sedimentary rock containing kerogen (750 bn barrels?) >Technical issue: Likely to be more viable & acceptable if an in situ extraction method is perfected >Environmental issue: Surface mining has the potential to cause major environment damage; acid runoff a likely side-effect; dirty fuel if burnt directly >Price: 80-100 US$ per barrel

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Unconventional – Arctic

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Attention turned to Arctic as possible location for major oil & gas reserves. Estimated 90 bn barrels of oil, as well as 30% of world undiscovered gas. Entire area subject to territorial claims yet to settle by UN. Environmentalists fear a ‘free for all’ as fossil fuels else ware run dry. 2010 BP Deep Water Horizon oil spill in Gulf of Mexico illustrated dangers of exploring for oil at technological frontier. 11 killed when the rig exploded and 4m barrels spilled.

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Supermajors and State Owned

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Energy is big business, very large TNCs known as ‘supermajors’ and equally large state-owned oil & gas companies dominate. [bn US$] SuperMajors: ExxonMobil (USA) 383, Shell (UK) 355, BP (UK) 309, Chevron Corp (USA) 205, Conoco Phillips (USA) 199, Total (France) 231. State-Owned: Saudi Armaco (S Arabia) 233, CNC (China) 165, PDVSA (Venezuela) 91, Petrobras (Brazil) 138, Gazprom (Russia) 99, Petronas (Malaysia) 66.

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Supermajors and state-owned companies

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Supermajors and state-owned companies are involved in exploration, extraction, refining & delivery. They are vertically integrated TNCs involved in entire energy supply chain. Many are diversifying into renewable energy, hedging against the time when oil & gas run out.

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Supermajors criticised

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Supermajors have been criticised for: >Making excessive profits; many are close to being monopoly suppliers in some countries and religions >Not investing long term in exploration and refining capacity, so oil gluts quickly turn to supply shortages >Damaging sensitive environments and ignoring local people, such as in Rivers State in Nigeria where Shell has been accused of oil spills, corruption and driving the ogoni people from their land

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Global energy supply players

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National gov, pressure groups, local gov, OPEC/GECF, International organisations, TNCs, Utility companies, consumers

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OPEC

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OPEC is a powerful energy player, set up in 1961 it is a cartel of 12 major oil exporters. Members include Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela & Nigeria. OPEC influences price of oil using oil production quotas for member states. These can \/ oil supply, /\ price. In 2008, OPEC accounted for 35% of oil supply, but over 60% of proven oil reserves. Its power is likely to /\ in future. Less influential Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) established 2001. Concerns that Russia and Iran may attempt to make GECF into a price setting cartel for gas.

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Energy Efficiently uncertainty

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Energy Efficiently Uncertainty Might lower demand. High energy price in UK & EU 2006-08 encouraged switch to fuel-efficient cars, public transport and home insulation. If gov led a meaningful efficiently drive, the savings could be v large

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Economic growth uncertainty

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Economic Growth Uncertainty related to energy demand. Demand strong 2002-06 as world enjoyed economic boom. Eventually oil demand outstripped supply, pushing a barrel of oil to over US$100 in 2008. Oil price collapsed US$35 in 2009, but 100+ again by 2011. IMF expects world economy to double by 2040, which would increase energy demand.

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Population growth uncertainty

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Popn growth uncertainty UN estimates 8.5 bn people by 2040 – 2 bn more than 2005. How developed these extra 2bn will be largely determines which energy source they would use. Dev in the ‘100 m+ club’ (India, Brazil, China, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, Mexico) would /\ demand.

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Renewable & recyclable uncertainty

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Renewable & Recyclable resource uncertainty if used more extensively, would reduce demand for FFS

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Nuclear?

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Likely in next few decades FFs will continue to supply most of world energy demand. Large ? Hangs over future of Nuclear power. Single reactor produces 1,100 MW of power, equivalent to 600 wind turbines. Of 439 Nuclear reactors operating in 2008, only 34 constructed 1998-2008, where 213 are 21-30 yo. Unless huge programme of nuclear capacity building is launched soon, nuclear power may \/ in importance.

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Peak oil problem

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‘Peak oil problem’ Demand is less of concern than supply. Oil & Gas are flexible, ‘clean’ fuels compared to coal. Coal reserves will last for 150-200 years at current use rates, but coal is less energy dense than oil or gas, more costly to transport and dirtier - especially in terms of acid rain causing sulphur dioxide & nitrogen oxides.

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Oil & gas peak?

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Concerns that oil & gas supplies will ‘peak’ in near future. The production peak point is more important than when oil and gas will ‘run out’ because after supplies will shrink and prices will rise.

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Timing of peak oil

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Timing of peak oil is hotly disputed: >In 2008 the Association for study of peak oil and gas put the date at 2010 >In 2007 the German Energy Watch Group claimed the peak was reached in 2006 >In 2008 the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security stated it would be reached by 2013 >In 2006 IMF predicted production rising to nearly 120 m barrels per day by 2030

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Peak oil

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Since 2004, oil production has been ‘stuck’ at 80-85 m barrels per day, producing plateau oil’ rather than a distinct peak. Some in the oil industry argue that the huge price rises of 2007-08 were evidence of the ‘peak’. Others countered with view that supply was being limited by a lack of oil refinery capacity. Less concern about peak gas. Estimates suggest this is further off, perhaps occurring between 2025-2030. /\ exploitation of shale gas could dramatically /\ availability & longevity of gas supplies.

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Timing of peak oil is important

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Timing of peak oil is important. Those who believe it is close argue that urgent action is needed to dev alt energy sources. Even if global peak oil is years away, individual country peaks are not. UK oil production peaking in 1999 & USA in 1970. /\ingly countries will have to rely on shrinking number of nations, which haven’t peaked. These will be concentrated in unstable regions e.g. Middle East & Africa. In future world, with tightening oil & gas supplies, what are our options?

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Resource nationalism

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Future may see rise is resource nationalism (assert control over resources in their territory). If energy insecurity /\, countries are likely to turn to their own energy resources. Already occurred with biodiesel & bio-ethanol in USA.

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USA faced with high prices and low supply security

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Faced with rising oil prices & lack of supply security, the USA: >Passed energy policy act 2005, with a target of 7.5 bn gallons of biofuels by 2012 & 10% of petrol must be ethanol by 2009 >Passed the energy Independence and Security act 2007 stating that 36 bn gallons of petrol must be biofuel based by 2022. These acts created a market for biofuels, which in turn led to huge areas of maize & soybeans grown for biofuels.

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Biofuels

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Promotion of biofuels in USA and EU meant by 2007-8 large areas of land that once grew food were now growing fuel. Contributed to rising global food prices & food riots in Mexico, India, Yemen, Bangladesh & Indonesia. The energy policy of one country can thus have negative consequences for others.

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Someone else’s energy

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Alt approach is to get hold of someone else’s energy resources. This has been China’s approach in Africa. China has signed bilateral agreements with African countries to ensure an oil supply. Chinese demand is set to rise from 3.5 m barrels per day in 2006 to 13 m by 2030.

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China’s move into Africa

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Concerns over China’s move into Africa: >Bilateral oil trade agreements work against the idea of an open oil market >China has invested heavily in war-torn Sudan, putting its oil interests ahead of humanitarian concerns >Suggestions of links to undemocratic or despotic regimes such as Zimbabwe >Africa’s oil should help African development, not Chinese dev. Some positives. Chinese investment dwarfed by investment by supermajors, but it is growing fast.

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Our world with large energy need

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Our world with large energy needs: >The need to have continuing secure supplies in the developed world >Meeting the needs of the emerging economies >Providing energy to the least developed world, to meet basic needs. These seem enough on their own, but we also need to reduce urban air pollution, protect biodiversity and tackle global warming. Addressing these concerns and meeting energy demand may seem like an impossible circle to square. Some difficult choices to ensure supplies and protect the environment.

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Longterm switch to renewables

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Long term a switch to renewable sources looks inevitable. The question remains as to whether countries can make the switch in a relatively painless way, or whether players will cling to a FFs model until the resources themselves begin to become prohibitively expensive. Under that scenario, conflict over resources and rising tensions are likely to be the result.

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5 Energy ‘R’s

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1.Refuse polluting energy sources 2.Reduce overall consumption 3.Research more sustainable and affordable tech 4.Recycle waste, and convert to useful energy 5.Replace inefficient/wasteful tech with improved ones.