Use LEFT and RIGHT arrow keys to navigate between flashcards;
Use UP and DOWN arrow keys to flip the card;
H to show hint;
A reads text to speech;
24 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
strategy relating to the percentage of capacity being used
|
yeild management
|
|
two uses for forecasts
|
to help managers plan the system and
to help them plan the use of the system |
|
planning the use of the system involves what type of planning
|
short to mid range planning, inventory, work force levels, purchasing and production, budgeting and scheduling
|
|
Features common to all forecasts are
|
assume that what continued in the past will continue in the future
rarely perfect groups more accurate than individual items s/t more accurate than l/t |
|
flexible business organizations, require a ___ forecast horison
|
shorter
|
|
Elements of a good forecast are
|
timely
accurate reliable exist in meaningful units written simple and easy to understand cost-effective |
|
the steps in the forecasting process are
|
determine the purpose of the forecast
establish a time horizon obtain appropriate data make forecast monitor the forecast |
|
two approaches to forecasting
|
qualitative (soft)
quantitative (hard) |
|
rely on the analysis of subjective inputs obtained from various sources
|
judgemental forecasts
|
|
projects past experiences into the future
|
time-series forecasts
|
|
use equations that consist of one or more explanatory variables that can be used to predict demand
|
associative models
|
|
a time ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals, used to make a prediction
|
time series forecast
|
|
Patterns in historical data usually take the form of
|
trend
seasonality cycles irregular variations random variations |
|
wavelike variations of more than a year's duration
|
cycle
|
|
short term, fairly regular variation
|
seasonality
|
|
unusual circumstances that cause variations in data
|
irregular variations
|
|
residual variations in data that ca nnot be explained by trend, seasonality, cycles, or irregular variations
|
random variations
|
|
a forecast that uses a single previous value of a time serices as a basis of a forecast
|
naive forecast
|
|
benefits of naive forecasting
|
virtually no cost
quick and easy to prepare easily understood is a viable standard of comparison for other methods |
|
term for random variation in historical data
|
white noise
|
|
Three techniques for averaging are
|
moving average
weighted moving average exponential smoothing |
|
a method of forecasting that assigns more weight to recent values in a series
|
weighted moving average
|
|
equation for exponential smoothing
|
Next forecast = previous forecast + α (Actual – Previous forecast)
α is a smoothing constant |
|
A linear trend equation has the form
|
F=a+bt
|