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24 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Factors of judgement |
Unobservable state of the world Cues |
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How does Cues vary? |
Predictive strength Utilisation |
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Components of judgement |
Alternatives State of the world Outcomes Utilisation Objectives |
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State of the world |
Conditions not under your control |
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Alternatives |
Other actions that can be taken |
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Outcomes |
Alternatives × state of the world |
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Utilisation |
Subjective value of outcome |
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Objective |
Motive |
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3 Approaches to judgement decision making |
Normative Descriptive Prescriptive |
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Principles of EUT |
Ordering of alternatives Dominance Cancellation Transivity Continuity Invariance |
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Heuristics definition |
Mental shortcuts that simplify judgement |
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Biases definition |
Deviations from rational reasoning |
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Conjuction fallacy |
When it is assumed that a specific condition is more probable than a single general one |
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Representative heuristic |
More detailed the situation, the more you think it's more likely to have happened |
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Belief in Law of Small Numbers |
Idea of self-correcting chances |
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Base rate neglect |
If presented with related base rate information (i.e. generic, general information) and specific information (information only pertaining to a certain case), the mind tends to ignore the former and focus on the latter |
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Available Heuristic |
Using the ease of which info is brought to mind to infer the likelihood that an event will occur |
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Factors affecting available Heuristic |
Recall availability Scenario availability |
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Anchoring heuristics |
Number initially provided acts as an anchor for your estimates |
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Planning fallacy |
phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed |
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Bias blind spot |
The tendency to view others as more susceptible to bias than ourselves |
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Where does the bias blind spot come from? |
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Assumption of prospect theory |
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Prospect theory on endowment effect |
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