Cscp Module 2A

Front 1

Demand Planning

Back 1

The process of planning all demands for products and services to support the marketplace.. The process involves updating the supporting plans and assumptions and reaching consensus

Front 2

Demand

Back 2

A need for a particular product or component. The demand could come from any number of sources (orders.. forecast...)

Front 3

The core components of demand.

Back 3

1. Trend
2. Seasonality
3. Random Variation
4. Cycle

Front 4

Trend

Back 4

The general upward and downward movement of a variable over time.

Front 5

Seasonality

Back 5

A repetitive pattern of demand from year to year.

Front 6

Random Variation

Back 6

Fluctuation in data that is caused by uncertain of random occurrences.

Front 7

Demand Management

Back 7

1. The function of recognizing all demands for goods and services
2. In Mktg, the process of planning, executing, controlloing and monitoring the design, pricing, promotion and distribution of products and services.

Front 8

Forecasting

Back 8

The business function that attempts to predict the sales and use of products so they can be purchased or manufactured in the appropriate quantities in advance.

Front 9

Causes of variability in demand

Back 9

1. Competition.
2.Seasonality
3. Life cycle trends
4. External Factors.
5. Promotions.
6. Disasters.
7. Distance.

Front 10

The Bullwhip Effect

Back 10

Modest variations in retail demand may ripple up the links of the supply chain with the amount of variation growing at each link.

Front 11

5 Causes of the bullwhip effect

Back 11

1. Demand Forecast Errors
2. Lead Times
3. Order batching
4. Price fluctuations and promotions.
5. Rationing and shortage gaming.

Front 12

Forecast Errors

Back 12

the difference between actual demand and forecast demand stated as an absolute value or %.

Front 13

Lead Time

Back 13

1. Span of time required to perform a process
2. The time between recognition of the need for an order and the receipt of goods.

Front 14

Order Batching (Lumping)

Back 14

Batching small orders into bulk amounts in an attempt to take advantage of economies of scale.

Front 15

Shortage gaming

Back 15

When customers anticipate rationing or shortages and inflate their orders.

Front 16

Vendor Managed Inventory

Back 16

A means of optimizing the supply chain performance in which the supplier has access to the customers inv data and responsible for maintaining the inv level required by the customer.

Front 17

Ways to counter the Bullwhip effect.

Back 17

1. Avoid multiple fcsts
2. Reduce LT
3. Reduce size of batched orders.
4. Maintain stable prices.
5. Prevent shortage gaming.
6. Postponement.

Front 18

Ways to avoid multiple fcsts

Back 18

1. Info sharing
2. EDI implement
3. Implement VMI (aka VMR, CRP)

Front 19

Cross Docking

Back 19

Transferring deliveries from the suppliers vehicles to the vendors vehicles without storing that at the warehouse.

Front 20

Ways to facilitate more frequent ordering and in smaller batch sizes

Back 20

1. Better forecasting
2. Use of EDI
3. more efficient transportation
4. Outsourcing.

Front 21

Ways to prevent shortage gaming.

Back 21

1. Rely on history.
2. Share information.
3. Collaborate on advanced orders.
4. Penalize effects of gaming.

Front 22

Postponement (delayed differentiation, Package to order)

Back 22

standardizing products as much as possible and giving a products its final configuration until an order is received from the customer.

Front 23

Basic Principles of forecasting

Back 23

1. Forecasts are almost always wrong.
2. Forecasts should include an estimate of error.
3. Forecasts are more accurate for groups than for single items.
4. Forecasts of near term demand are more accurate than long term forecasts.

Front 24

Risk Pooling

Back 24

Manufacturers and retailers can pool together common inv components associated with a broad family of products to buffer the overall burden of having to deploy inv for each discrete product.

Front 25

Dependent Demand

Back 25

Demand that is directly related to or derived from the BOM structure for other items or end products. These demands are calculated.

Front 26

Independent Demand

Back 26

The demand for an item that is unrelated to the demand for other items.

Front 27

Service Parts Demand

Back 27

Demand for modules components and elements tha are planned to used without modification to replace an original part.

Front 28

5 major types of qualitative fcsting

Back 28

1. Personal insight
2. sales force consensus est
3. management est
4. market research
5. the Delphi method.

Front 29

Pyramid Forecasting

Back 29

Forecasting technique whereby management reviews and adjusts forecasts at an aggregate level and keeps lower level forecasts in balance.

Front 30

Historical Analogy Forecasting.

Back 30

Using past patterns of demand on a similar product to forecast demand on a new product or service.

Front 31

Market Research

Back 31

The systematic gathering, recording and analyzing of data about problems relating to the marketing of goods and services.

Front 32

Market Research Components

Back 32

1. Market Analysis
2. Sales Analysis
3. Consumer Research

Front 33

Delphi Method

Back 33

Forecasting method where anonymous questionnaires are submitted to subject matter experts for their anonymous response. They then comment on the answers from the previous round of questionnaire.

Front 34

Qualitative fcst techniques

Back 34

1. intrinsic
2. extrinsic

Front 35

Intrinsic Fcst

Back 35

A fcst based on internal factors such as an ave of past sales. Known as time-series models.

Front 36

Extrinsic Fcst

Back 36

A fcst base don a correlated leading indicator...ie.. furniture based on housing sales...

Front 37

Considerations when selecting fcst data

Back 37

1. Record data in terms needed for the fcst. (3 Dimensions qty, time, product)
2. Record events that may influence demand.
3. Keep separate demand records for each customer group.

Front 38

4 basic forecasting techniques.

Back 38

1. Naive Approach
2. Moving averages
3. Weighted Moving Ave
4. Exponential Smoothing.

Front 39

Naive Forecasting

Back 39

Assumes demand in the next period will be the same as demand in the last period.

Front 40

Moving average forecasting

Back 40

Uses the ave demand from a series of preceding periods to forecast the next periods demand.

Front 41

Exponential smoothing equation

Back 41

new fcst = (last per fcst) + alpha(last per actual + last per fcst)

Front 42

Mean absolute deviation equation

Back 42

MAD=sum of errors/# of forecasts

Front 43

Quick response Program (QPR)

Back 43

A system of linking final sales with production and shipping schedules back through the chain of supply. Employs POS and EDI.

Front 44

Continuous replenishment (rapid replenishment)

Back 44

Supplier uses customer POS data to prepare shipments at agreed upon intervals.

Front 45

Consignment

Back 45

1. A shipment that is handled by a common carrier
2. The process of a supplier placing goods at a customer location without receiving payment until the goods are used or sold.

Front 46

VMI Metrics

Back 46

1. Reduction of bullwhip effect
2. Reduced inv costs
3. On time delivery
4. Reduction of stockouts
5. Lead Time reduction
6. Increased inv turns

Front 47

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)

Back 47

A collaboration process where supply chain partners jointly plan key supply chain activities from production and delivery of raw materials to delivery of final products.

Front 48

4 Categories of CPFR

Back 48

1. Strategy and Planning
2. Demand and Supply Management
3. Execution
4. Analysis

Front 49

Joint Replenishment

Back 49

Coordinating the lot sizing and order release decision for related items and treating them as a family of items

Front 50

Challenges to CPFR

Back 50

1. Increased costs
2. Resistance to data sharing
3. Bridging internal functions