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25 Cards in this Set

  • Front
  • Back

What part of the FAR would you find Cost Proposal

FAR 15

Random sampling

used when you have low dollar items

Stratified sampling

used when you have high dollar items

What are the benefits of the proposal model

-The best way to understand how the propose cost roll together is to model the proposal, e.g. utilizing excel



-Duplicate the propose costs and profit



-Distinguish between "discrete", factor generated amounts and indirect cost



-Effective way to understand how the estimating system works



-Enable your ability to quickly trade offers in negotiations

What measure is used for "Equal chance of overrun and underrun"

Median

What measure of central tendency & dispersion does Outliers impact the most

Mean

A Right Skewed is a

Positive (tailed to the right)


A Left Skewed is a

Negative (tailed to the left)

In the simple regression model, Y=A+BX, what does the X represent

Independent variable (changes)

In the simple regression model, Y=A+BX, what does the Y represent

Dependent variable (price/cost-stays the same)

R-Squared measures

-variation


-strength of association

When dealing with Skewed data

the Median would be a used

When dealing with Kurtosis data

the Mean would be used

CER Issues and Concerns

1) Does the available data verify the existence and accuracy of the proposed relationship?


2) Is there a trend in the relationship?


3) Is the CER used consistently?


4) How is the current CER?


5) Would another independent variable be better for developing and applying a CER?


6) Would a detail estimate or direct comparison with actual from prior effort produce more accurate results?

Purpose of Regression analysis

-To Predict the value of a Dependent variable Y,


given the value of the Independent variable X -


it is based on a straight-line linear relationship even when the data points do not fall on a straight line

Under the Prediction Interval, as the confidence level increases

the range widens between high and low numbers but the estimate stays the same

Under the Prediction Interval, as the confidence level decreases

the range becomes smaller between high and low numbers but the estimate stays the same

2 types of moving averages

Single Moving Average - NO time-series data trend


Double Moving Average - IS a time-series data trend

If a contractor proposes a high dollar value,

the Gov't counter-offer should be a Low estimate

Cost realism analyses shall be performed on

Cost-reimbursement contracts to determine the probable cost of performance for each offeror

If there is adequate competition

no certified cost or pricing data is needed

Other than cost or pricing data we should obtain as little data as possible from the contractor

True

2 types of CER's

Cost/Cost Relationship = uses one or more elements of contract cost to estimate cost or product price


Cost/Non-Cost Relationship = use physical or performance characteristics to estimate cost or product price

When conducting cost analysis you need a breakdown of cost elements

Material Services


Direct Labor

Coefficient of Variation (CV)

-the accuracy of using mean


-we could be off plus or minus