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91 Cards in this Set

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Hindsight Bias
-The tendency to believe that after learning the outcome, that one would have foreseen it *I knew it all along!*
-The mind builds its current wisdom around what we have already been told. We are “biased” in favor of old information.
Hindsight bias is like a crystal ball that we use to predict… the past.
e.g.Absence makes the heart grow fonder
e.g.Out of sight, out of mind
And
e.g.The pen is mightier than the sword
e.g.Actions speak louder than words
Critical thinking
analyzing information to decide if it makes sense, rather than simply accepting it. Goal: getting at the truth, even if it means putting aside your own ideas.
Will help us develop more effective and accurate ways to figure out what makes people do, think and feel the things they do
Critical thinking involves.. (5)
-See if there was a flaw in how the information was collected.
-Consider if there are other possible explanations for the facts or results.
-Look for hidden assumptions and decide if you agree.
-Look for hidden bias, politics, values, or personal connections.
-Put aside your own assumptions and biases, and look at the evidence
Why do I need to work on my thinking? Can’t you just tell me facts about psychology?
-The brain is designed for surviving and reproducing, but it is not the best tool for seeing ‘reality’ clearly.
-To improve our thinking, we will learn to catch ourselves in some critical thinking errors.
3 natural style thinking fails
-Hindsight bias:
“I knew it all along.”
-The coincidence error, or
mistakenly perceiving order in random events:
“The dice must be fixed because you rolled three sixes in a row.”
-Overconfidence error:
“I am sure I am correct.”
Overconfidence errors
-Too certain in our judgments.
-Overestimate our performance, our rate of work, our skills, and our degree of self-control.
e.g.“how long do you think it takes you to…”
E.g. Anagram hegoun - Enough*
-overestimate the accuracy of our knowledge. People are much more certain than they are accurate.
Overconfidence is a problem in: eyewitness testimony and tests. If you feel confident that you know a concept, try explaining it to someone else.
Perceiving order in random events:
-Example: The coin tosses that “look wrong” if there are five heads in a row.
-Prediction Danger: thinking you can make a prediction from a random series.
-Why this error happens: because we have the wrong idea about what randomness looks like.
The word “perceiving” is used to highlight that it is a perception, not necessarily an accurate view of reality; you PERCEIVE that the order is there in the randomness.
Why do we make these errors and overuse our intuition? ..From an evolutionary perspective: Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias
might be an offshoot of our useful habit of analyzing an event and trying to figure out why it occurred
The three circles explain these “errors” from an evolutionary perspective; however, the text that follows is a behaviorist perspective…that our use of intuition gets positively reinforced.
Why do we make these errors and overuse our intuition? ..From an evolutionary perspective: Perceiving order
Perceiving order helps us make predictions; we just need to test these and not overdo it.
The three circles explain these “errors” from an evolutionary perspective; however, the text that follows is a behaviorist perspective…that our use of intuition gets positively reinforced.
Why do we make these errors and overuse our intuition? ..From an evolutionary perspective: Overconfidence error
Overconfidence error
might help us lead other people; certainty builds confidence in followers more than accuracy does.
The three circles explain these “errors” from an evolutionary perspective; however, the text that follows is a behaviorist perspective…that our use of intuition gets positively reinforced.
What did “Amazing Randi” do about the claim of seeing auras?
He developed a testable prediction, which would support the theory if it succeeded.
e.g. “If you can see my aura, then you should be able to identify my location even if my body is concealed.”
-The aura-readers were unable to locate the aura around Randi’s body without seeing Randi’s body itself
The aura-readers were unable to locate the aura around Randi’s body without seeing Randi’s body itself, so their claim was not supported.
Being systematic
to observe the world in a controlled way so that the information you collect will find out something clear and specific that might be true about people in general.
Theory
is a set of principles, built on observations and other verifiable facts, that explains/predicts some phenomenon and predicts its future behavior.
-Are not guesses
e.g. Sleep boosts memory
e.g. curiosity killed the cat
Hypothesis
A testable prediction, often implied/is consistant with our theory
e.g. When sleep deprived, people remember less from the day before
e.g. Hypothesis: Curiosity, if not guided by caution, can lead to the death of felines and perhaps humans.
Operational definition
A statement of the procedures (operations) used to define research variables.
E.g. Human intelligence may be operationally defined as "what an intelligence test measures"
Replication
Repeating the essence of a research study, usually with different participants in different situations, to see whether the basic finding extents to the other participants and circumstances
Case study
An observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principals
Curiosity
always asking new questions
e.g.
"That behavior I’m noticing in that guy… is that common to all people? Or is it more common when under stress? Or only common for males?”
-Guessing at WHY something happens.
-Wondering if two events or traits tend to go together, or even one causes the other.
Wondering if there are predictable patterns in people’s behavior or traits.
-These guesses and wonderings sometimes take the form of ‘hypotheses,’
Skepticism
not accepting a ‘fact’ as true without challenging it; seeing if ‘facts’ can withstand attempts to disprove them
-Amazing Randi is of course an example of a skeptic;
Skepticism, like curiosity, generates questions: “Is there another explanation for the behavior I am seeing? Is there a problem with how I measured it, or how I set up my experiment? Do I need to change my theory to fit the evidence?”
Humility
seeking the truth rather than trying to be right; a scientist needs to be able to accept being wrong.
The scientific method is the process of testing our ideas about the world by:
-setting up situations that test our ideas.
-making careful, organized observations
-analyzing whether the data fits with our ideas.
-If the data doesn’t fit our ideas, then we modify our ideas, and test again.
Scientific Method: Tools
Theory
Hypothesis
Operational Definitions
Replication
Research goals/types:
Description
Correlation
Prediction
Causation
Experiments
Danger when testing hypotheses:
theories can bias our observations, may have a different definition of a word used in the hypothesis. Create a Operational definition
E.g. Impulsivity = # of times/hour calling out without raising hand.
Hyperactivity = # of times/hour out of seat
Inattention = # minutes continuously on task before becoming distracted
The next/final step in the scientific method: replication
research means trying it again using the same operational definitions of the concepts and procedures.
You could introduce a small change in the study, e.g. changing to college students instead of elementary students.
Research Process: the depression example
1. Theories: Low self esteem feeds depression
Leads to..
2. Hypothesis: People with low self esteem will score higher on a depression scale
Leads to..
3. Research and observations: Administer tests of self esteem and depression. See if a low score on one predicts the high score of the other.
Confirm, reject or revise
Descriptive research
is a systematic, objective observation of people
-The goal is to provide a clear, accurate picture of people’s behaviors, thoughts, and attributes.
Case Study:
-observing and gathering information to compile an in-depth study of one individual
-Benefit: can be a source of ideas about human nature in general
Example: cases of brain damage have suggested the function of different parts of the brain (e.g. Phineas Gage)
Danger: overgeneralization from one example; “he got better after tapping his head so tapping must be the key to health!”
Naturalistic Observation:
gathering data about behavior; watching but not intervening
e.g. monkeys
This method can be used to study more than one individual, and to find truths that apply to a broader population
Surveys and Interviews:
having other people report on their own attitudes and behavior
Survey:
A method of gathering information about many people’s thoughts or behaviors through self-report rather than observation.
Keys to getting useful information:
-Be careful about the wording of questions
-Only question randomly sampled people
Wording effects
the results you get from a survey can be changed by your word selection.
e.g.Q: Do you have motivation to study hard for this course?
Q: Do you feel a desire to study hard for this course?
The wording effect can be manipulated: use your critical thinking to catch this. Someone wanting to make students look ambitious would choose the first question, while someone wanting to make students look lazy could choose the second.
Population:
All the cases in a group being studied, from which samples may be drawn
Random sample:
A sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion
Why take a sample?
If you want to find out something about men, you can’t interview every single man on earth.
Sampling saves time.
Correlation:
General: an observation that two traits or attributes are related to each other (thus, they are “co”-related)
Scientific definition: a measure of how closely two factors vary together, or how well you can predict a change in one from observing a change in the other
What is a possible result of many descriptive studies?
Discovering a correlation
In a case study: The fewer hours the boy was allowed to sleep, the more episodes of aggression he displayed.
In a survey: The greater the number of Facebook friends, the less time was spent studying.
In a naturalistic observation: Children in a classroom who were dressed in heavier clothes were more likely to fall asleep than those wearing lighter clothes.
Finding Correlations: Scatter-plots
Place a dot on the graph for each person, corresponding to the numbers for their height and shoe size.
In this imaginary example, height correlates with shoe size; as height goes up, shoe size goes up.
/ - perfect positive correlation
\ - Perfect negative correlation
* (scattered) - No relationship, no correlation
Correlation coefficient:
Is a number representing the strength and direction of correlation. The strength of the relationship refers to how close the dots are to a straight line, which means one variable changes exactly as the other one does; this number varies from 0.00 to +/- 1.00.
The direction of the correlation can be positive (both variables increase together) or negative (as one goes up, the other goes down).
Scatter-plot:
A graphed cluster if dots, each of which represents the values of two variables. The slope of the points suggests the direction of the relationship between the two variables. The amount of scatter suggests the strength of the correlation (little scatter suggests high correlation)
*Refer to orange phone pics for visuals*
If we find a correlation, what conclusions can we draw from it?
Let’s say we find the following result:
e.g. there is a positive correlation between two variables,
ice cream sales, and
rates of violent crime
-How do we explain this?
-Possible explanations for this correlation:
-“Does ice cream cause crime?
-Does violence give people ice cream cravings?
-Is it because daggers and cones look similar?
-Perhaps both are increased by a third variable: hot weather.”
Correlation is not Causation
Not even if one event or change in a variable precedes another can we assume that one event or variation caused the other; the correlation between the two variables could still be caused by a third factor.
If a low self-esteem test score “predicts” a high depression score, what have we confirmed?
-that low self-esteem causes or worsens depression?
-that depression is bad for self-esteem?
-that low self-esteem may be part of the definition of depression, and that we’re not really connecting two different variables at all?
If self-esteem correlates with depression, there are still numerous possible causal links: (3)
1. Low self esteem could cause depression
2. Depression could cause self esteem
3. Distressing events or biological predisposition could cause low self esteem and depression
How do we find out about causation?
experimentation
Experimentation
-manipulating one factor in a situation to determine its effect
-sometimes you might manipulate more than one variable, but always a limited number of variables, manipulated in a controlled way.
Example of experimentation
removing sugar from the diet of children with ADHD to see if it makes a difference
In the depression/self-esteem example: trying interventions that improve self-esteem to see if they cause a reduction in depression
Random sampling
is how you get a pool of research participants that represents the population you’re trying to learn about.
-First you sample, then you sort (assign).
Random assignment
of participants to control or experimental groups is how you control all variables except the one you’re manipulating.
Placebo effect
experimental effects/results that are caused by expectations about the intervention
How do we make sure that the experimental group doesn’t experience an effect because they expect to experience it?
-Control groups may be given a placebo – an inactive substance or other fake treatment in place of the experimental treatment.
-Double blind
Double blind procedure
neither participants nor research staff knows which participants are in the experimental or control groups.
What is the function of double-blind research?
to control for the effect of research expectations on the participants.
An experimental group gets a new drug while the control group gets nothing, yet both groups improve.
Placebo effect!
If we manipulate a variable in an experimental group of people, and then we see an effect, how do we know the change wouldn’t have happened anyway?
comparing this group to a control group, a group that is the same in every way except the one variable we are changing
Experimental group
in an experiment, the group that is exposed to the treatment, that is, to one version of the IV
Control group
In an experiment, the group that is not exposed to the treatment; contrasts with the experimental group and serves as a comparison for evaluating the effect of the treatment
How do make sure the control group is really identical in every way to the experimental group?
By using random assignment: randomly selecting some study participants to be assigned to the control group or the experimental group.
Example: two groups of children have ADHD, but only one group stops eating refined sugar.
If the experimental group showed a reduction in ADHD symptoms, but the control group did also, we don’t have evidence that eliminating sugar made a difference (maybe they all got better because they were being watched, got other help, got older, etc).
What If the experimental group showed a reduction in ADHD symptoms, but the control group did also?
we don’t have evidence that eliminating sugar made a difference (maybe they all got better because they were being watched, got other help, got older, etc).
independent variable (IV).
The variable we are able to manipulate independently of what the other variables
If we test the ADHD/sugar hypothesis:
-Sugar = Cause = Independent Variable
dependent variable (DV).
The variable we expect to experience a change which depends on the manipulation we’re doing
If we test the ADHD/sugar hypothesis:
ADHD = Effect = Dependent Variable
confounding variables.
The other variables that might have an effect on the dependent variable
e/g/ Did ice cream sales cause a rise in violence, or vice versa? There might be a confounding variable: temperature.
confounding variables e.g. cont.
How to prevent the confounding variables from varying in the ice cream example: you could do all your data collection only on days in which the high temperature is 70 degrees (but why 70 degrees? why not 60 or 80 degrees? Or make the temperature a third variable? But then what about humidity?).
Filling in our definition of experimentation: Experiment
is a type of research in which the researcher carefully manipulates a limited number of factors (IVs) and measures the impact on other factors (DVs).
*in psychology, you would be looking at the effect of the experimental change (IV) on a behavior or mental process (DV).
Studies have found that children who were breastfed score higher on intelligence tests, on average, than those who were bottle-fed.
Can we conclude that breast feeding CAUSES higher intelligence?
Not necessarily. There is at least one confounding variable: genes. The intelligence test scores of the mothers might be higher in those who choose breastfeeding.
So how do we deal with this confounding variable? Hint: experiment.
Analyze this fictional result:
“People who attend psychotherapy tend to be more depressed than the average person.”
Does this mean psychotherapy worsens depression?
Watch out: descriptive, naturalistic, retrospective research results are often presented as if they show causation.
people who choose to use psychotherapy are possibly going to be more symptomatic (depressed, anxious, irritable, confused) than the general population.
We’ve done our research and gathered data. Now what?
We can use statistics
statistics
which are tools for organizing, presenting, analyzing, and interpreting data.
Value of statistics: (2)
1. to present a more accurate picture of our data (e.g. the scatterplot) than we would see otherwise.
2. to help us reach valid conclusions from our data; statistics are a crucial critical thinking tool.
Mode
the most common level/number/ score
Mean
(arithmetic “average”)
the sum of the scores, divided by the number of scores
Median
(middle person’s score, or 50th percentile)
the number/level that half of people scored above and half of them below
If you could use one number to describe a populations income, height, age, what could it be?
Mean
Mode
Median
Range
the difference between the highest and lowest scores in a distribution
Standard deviation
a calculation of the average distance of scores from the mean
normal curve
a symmetrical, bell shaped curve that describes the distribution of many types of data; most scores fall near the mean (68% fall within 1 standard deviation) and fewer and fewer near the extremes
Skewed vs. Normal Distribution
Income distribution is skewed by the very rich.
Intelligence test distribution tends to form a symmetric “bell” shape that is so typical that it is called the normal curve.
Drawing conclusions from data: are the results useful?
After finding a pattern in our data that shows a difference between one group and another, we can ask more questions
Is the difference reliable?
Is the difference significant?
a result can have STATISTICAL significance (clearly not a difference caused by chance), but still not signify much.
Is the difference reliable?
can we use this result to generalize or to predict the future behavior of the broader population?
How to achieve reliability:
Nonbiased sampling
Consistency
Many data points
Nonbiased sampling
Make sure the sample that you studied is a good representation of the population you are trying to learn about.
Consistency
Check that the data (responses, observations) is not too widely varied to show a clear pattern.
Many data points
Don’t try to generalize from just a few cases, instances, or responses.
Is the difference significant?
When have you found statistically significant difference (e.g. between experimental and control groups)?
-When your data is reliable AND
-When the difference between the groups is large (e.g. the data’s distribution curves do not overlap too much).
(Laboratory vs. Life)
Question: How can a result from an experiment, possibly simplified and performed in a laboratory, give us any insight into real life?
By isolating variables and studying them carefully, we can discover general principles that might apply to all people.
(Diversity)
Question: Do the insights from research really apply to all people, or do the factors of culture and gender override these “general” principles of behavior?
Answer: Research can discover human universals AND study how culture and gender influence behavior. However, we must be careful not to generalize too much from studies done with subjects who do not represent the general population.
Statistical significance
a statistical statement of how likely it is that an obtained result occurred by chance
Culture
The enduring behaviours, ideas, attitudes, values, and traditions shared by a group of people and transmitted from one generation to the next
(Ethics)
Question: Why study animals? Is it possible to protect the safety and dignity of animal research subjects?
Answer: Sometimes, biologically related creatures are less complex than humans and thus easier to study. In some cases, harm to animals generates important insights to help all creatures. The value of animal research remains extremely controversial.
Ethics
Question: How do we protect the safety and dignity of human subjects?
Answer: People in experiments may experience discomfort; deceiving people sometimes yields insights into human behavior. Human research subjects are supposedly protected by guidelines for non-harmful treatment, confidentiality, informed consent, and debriefing (explaining the purpose of the study).
(The impact of Values)
Question: How do the values of psychologists affect their work? Is it possible to perform value-free research?
Answer: Researchers’ values affect their choices of topics, their interpretations, their labels for what they see, and the advice they generate from their results. Value-free research remains an impossible ideal.