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39 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
academic libertarian
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someone who considers that knowledge is subjected to strict rules but not institutional authority- interest of organized knowledge is self-perpetuation, not necessarily truth
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appeles-style strategy
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seeking gains by collecting positive accidents from maximizing exposure to "good black swans"
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Barbell-style strategy
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taking both defensive attitue and excessively aggressive one at same time; protecting assets from all sources of uncertainty while allocating small portion for high risk strategies
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Bildungsphilister
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philistine with cosmetic, nongenuine culture- dogma-prone, cosmetic exposure to culture and shallow depth
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philistine
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person uninterested in intellectual pursuits; smug/ignorant anti-intellectual hostile to artistic/cultural values
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Pyrrhic victory
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victory with devastating cost to victor or terrible losses
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Black Swan Ethical Problem
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Black swans are unrepeatable; asymmetry between rewards of those who prevent and htose who cure
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Confirmation error (Platonic Confirmation)
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Tendency to look for instances that confirm your beliefs (model) and find them
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Empty Suit (Expert Problem)
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Professionals believed to be experts while really not statistically any more accurate than average people
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Epilogism
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theory-free method of looking at history by acumulating facts with minmal generalization and being conscious of side effects of making causal claims
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Epistemic arrogance
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measure the difference between what someone actually knows and how much he thinks he knows- excess implies arrogance; deficit huminity
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Epistemic opacity
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randomnes is the result of incomplete information at some layer. It is functionally indistinguishable from "true" or "physical" randomness
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Extremistan
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Province where total can be conceivably impacted by single observation
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Murphy's law
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everything that can go wrong will go wrong
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Godwin's law
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As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1
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Fallacy of silent evidence
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looking at history, we do not see the full story; only rosier parts of the process
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Fooled by randomness
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general confusing between luck/determinism; leads to superstitions
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Future blindness
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natural inability to take into account properties of the future
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Locke's madman
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somebody who makes impeccable and rigorous reasoning from faulty premises- producing phony models of uncertainty
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Lottery-ticket fallacy
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naïve analogy equating Black Swans to investing in lottery tickets; lottery tickets are not scalable
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scalable
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ability of product/network to accommodate growth
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Ludic fallacy
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uncertainty of the nerd; basing studies of chance on games and dice; (bell curve)
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Mandelbrotian Gray Swan
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Black Swans somewhat able to take into account, but for which it is not possible to completely figure out the properties and produce precise calculations
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Mediocristan
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province dominated by mediocre; few extreme successes/failures; bell curve grounded
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Narrative discipline
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Fitting convincing and well-soiunding story to past, opposed to experimental discipline
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Narrative fallacy
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need to fit a story or pattern to series of connected or disconnected facts; data mining
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Nerd knowledge
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belief that what annot be Platonized and studied does not exist or is not worth considering
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Platonic fold
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place where Platonic representation enters into contact with reality and you can see side effects of models
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Platonicity
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focus on pure, well-defined, easily discernible objects like trianles, friendships, at the cost of ignorming objects of seemingly messier and less tractable structures
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Probability distribution
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model used to calculate odds of different events, hhow "distrubuted"
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Randomness as incomplete information
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What I cannot guess is random because my knowledge of the causes is incomplete; it is not that the process is truly unpredictable
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Retrospective distortion
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examining past events without adjusting for forward passage of time- leads to illusion of posterior predictability
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Reverse-engineering problem
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Easier to predict ice cube melting into puddle than puddle's former shape as an ice cube- makes narrative accounts suspicious
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Round-trip fallacy
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confusion of absence of evidence of black swans for evicence of absence of black swans
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Scandal of prediction
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poor prediction record in some forcasting entities mixed with verbose commentary and lacy of awarenesss of own dire past record
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scorn of abstract
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favoring contextualized thinking over more abstract though more relavent matters
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Statistical regress argument
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Discovering of distribution is based on past, standardized distribution- severe regress argument
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inductive reasoning
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detailed facts to generalized principles
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deductive reasoning
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reasoning from general to particular
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