4Th Ed. Pmbok Chapter 11 Risk

Front 1

What are the 4 basic ways to deal with risk?

Back 1

1. Avoid - Prevent
2. Mitigate - Lessen
3.Transfer - Pay someone else to accept it. ex. insurance
4. Accept - Passive is leaving the team to deal with risks, Active is establishing contingency reserve, including amounts of time, money or resources to handle the risks

Front 2

What are the 6 processes in Risk Management?

Back 2

1. Plan Risk Management - develop plan for how to deal with risk
2. Identify Risks - gather the team and come up with a list of risks
3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis - determine probability and impact of each risk
4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis - assign numerical values for the probability and impact of each risk
5. Plan Risk Responses - plan responses to each risk
6. Monitor and Control Risk Responses - monitor discovered risks, look for new ones

Front 3

What are the 6 inputs to Plan Risk Management?

Back 3

1. OPA
2. EEP
3. Cost Management Plan
4. Schedule Management Plan
5. Communications Management Plan
6. Project Scope Statement

Front 4

What is the tool used for Plan Risk Management?

Back 4

1. Plan meetings and Analysis - Do all the risk planning by meeting with the team. Keep meeting with the team throughout the project to stay on top of risks.

Front 5

What is the output for Plan Risk Management?

Back 5

1. Risk Management Plan - guide to identifying and analyzing risks on your project. It tells you who identifies and analyzes the risk, how they do it, and how often it happens.

Front 6

What are some useful parts in the Risk Management Plan for managing risk?

Back 6

1. Categories - use to classify risk. Some are technical, others are external like weather.
2. Risk Breakdown Structure - looks like WBS, but breaks risk into categories.
3. Probability and impact guidelines - help to figure out how big a risk's impact is. Impact tells you how much damage the risk will cause to your project. minimal - severe.
4. Scale - figure out probability of risk, from likely to not.

Front 7

Describe Identify Risks

Back 7

In Identify Risks the idea is to figure out every possible risk that might affect the project.

Front 8

What are the 6 inputs to Identify Risks?

Back 8

1, Cost and Schedule Management plan - includes activity cost estimates and activity duration estimates which are also inputs
2. Risk Management Plan
3. PMP
4. Scope Baseline
5. OPA
6. EPP

Front 9

What are some informational gathering tools used for Identify Risks?

Back 9

1. Brainstorming - crank out ideas with team
2. Interviews - find everyone with an opinion about what could cause trouble on a project
3. The Delphi Technique - send anonymous surveys to expects
4. Root cause identification - analyzing each risk and figuring out whats actually behind it. Falling off cliff and having tent blown away are two separate risks but caused by the same thing.. WIND

Front 10

What are some additional tools used in Identify Risks?

Back 10

1. Document Reviews - look at plans, requirements, and documents from OPA
2. Assumptions Analysis - look over the project assumptions.
3. Checklist analysis - using checklists specifically developed to help find risk
4. SWOT analysis - analyze Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. Brainstorm strengths and weaknesses, then examine strengths to find opportunities and weaknesses to come up with threats.
5. Diagramming techniques - Ishikawa or fishbone diagrams from Quality Management to help find the root cause of a risk. Analysis systems to spot complexity

Front 11

What is the output in Identify Risks?

Back 11

1. Updates to Risk Register - the most important part of risk management. Its a list of all the risks and some initial ideas about how you'd respond to them

Front 12

What are some good places to look for risk?

Back 12

1. Resources - may not be available when you need it
2. Critical Path - any delay will postpone the project
3. Assumptions
4. External factors - new rule, regulation, law, union, price. etc

Front 13

Describe Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?

Back 13

Where you look at each risk and figure out how likely it is and how big its impact will be.

Front 14

What are the inputs to Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?

Back 14

1. Organizational Process Assets
2. Risk Register
3. Risk Management Plan
4. Project Scope Statement - Does the project use new technology? Is it complex?

Front 15

What are some tools used in Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?

Back 15

1. Risk data quality assessment - making sure that the information you're using is accurate.
2. Risk Urgency assessment - checking out how soon your're going to need to take care of a particular risk
3. Expert Judgement
4. Risk Probability and Impact Assessment - How likely and how impactful each risk is
5. Probability and impact matrix - All of the risks are plotted out with values
6. Risk categorization - grouping risks different to come up with a better strategy

Front 16

What is the output used in Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?

Back 16

1. Updated Risk Register

Front 17

Describe Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Back 17

Place numbers on the probability and impact of each risk

Front 18

What are the 6 inputs to Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Back 18

1. OPA
2. Risk Register
3. Cost Mangement Plan
4. Risk Management Plan
5. Schedule Management Plan
6. Project Scope Statement

Front 19

What are some tools used in Quantitative Risk Analysis?

Back 19

1. Interviewing - get reasons, ranges of probability and impact, 3 point estimates
2. Probability Distribution - Look at time and cost estimate ranges in terms of statistical distribution
3. Expert Judgement
4. Sensitivity Analysis - isolate variables, like rain or wind damage. Use Tornado diagram and assume other data will stay constant
5. Expected Monetary value analysis - examine the costs of all of the paths you might take through the project and assign money value. Decision tree analysis
6. Modeling and Distribution - run project through modeling programs. Monte Carlo Analysis runs simulations with randomized risks and probabilities of them occuring

Front 20

What is the output in quantitative risk analysis?

Back 20

Updates to the risk register

Front 21

What are the inputs to Plan Risk Response?

Back 21

1. Risk Register
2. Risk Management Plan

Front 22

What are the 4 strategies for responding to positive risks?

Back 22

1. Exploit - Do everything to take advantage of an opportunity
2. Enhance - Make an opportunity more probably by influencing its triggers
3. Share - Harder to take advantage of opportunity, get another company to share it
4. Accept - Sometimes falls in lap, so accept it

Front 23

How can response planning find even more risks?

Back 23

1. Secondary Risks - risks that come from a response to another risk. Dig a trench to stop landslides and someone falls in trench.
2. Residual Risks - remain after risk responses get implemented. Even though tent is reinforced, still a chance it could get blown away

Front 24

What is the 3 outputs of Plan Risk Response?

Back 24

1. Update Risk Register - add risk responses
2. PMP Updates - update so that Change control can include the risk responses
3. Risk Related contract decisions

Front 25

Describe Monitor and Control Risks

Back 25

Revisiting the status of the projects risks. Should be done at every status meeting.

Front 26

What are the inputs to Monitor and Control Risks?

Back 26

1. Risk Register
2. PMP
3. Work Performance Info
4. Performance reports - Both reviewed to see if risks are happening

Front 27

What are some tools used in Monitor and Control Risks?

Back 27

1. Risk Reassessment - Regularly scheduled reassessment meetings to info and re validate risk register
2. Variance and trend analysis - Comparing the actual performance to the plan. Look for trends, patterns, etc
3. Reserve Analysis - keeping tabs on money reserved for risks
4. Risk Audits - When an outside party comes in and looks at risks
5. Technical performance measurement - comparing the performance of the project to plan
6. Status meetings - have risk review on the agenda

Front 28

What are the outputs to Monitor and Control risks?

Back 28

1. Change Requests
2. Risk Register Updates
3. OPA updates
4. PMP updates
5. Project document updates - always an out from a Monitoring and Controlling process

Front 29

What is a trigger for a risk?

Back 29

A trigger is an indication that a risk has occurred or is about to occur. Sometimes called risk symptoms or warning signs. Ex. A thunderstorm is a trigger for lightning damage. Unlikely to have lightning damage without a thunderstorm.