Incumbent and Challenger Vote Shares
The SURE model also predicts the INC and BJP vote shares when they are incumbents and challengers. In making these predictions the methodology that was used took the following form. Using the coefficients of the INC equation (shown in the first panel of Table 5.1), the predicted INC vote share in each of these constituencies was computed and, then, averaged, first when it was supposed that all the INC candidates in the 2,684 constituencies were incumbents and next when it was supposed that all the INC candidates in the 2,684 constituencies were challengers. Since these two sets of predictions differ only in the fact that in the first prediction the INC was assumed to the incumbent, and in the second it was …show more content…
In particular, Table 5.5 compares: (i) the predicted vote shares of all INC candidates with all BJP candidates (labelled I + C in Table 5.5); (ii) the predicted vote shares of INC and BJP incumbents; (iii) the predicted vote shares of INC and BJP challengers. Columns 2 and 3 show, respectively, the relevant INC and BJP vote shares with the difference in column 4 and the its standard error in column 5; column 6 shows the z-value (computed as the difference divided by the standard error), and column 7 records the probability of obtaining, under the null hypothesis that the difference is zero, a value greater than the observed z.
Aggregating over all candidates, incumbents and challengers, and over all eight elections from 1989 to 2014, there was no significant difference between the vote shares obtained by INC (32.3 percent) and BJP candidates (31.5 percent) in the 2,684 constituencies, in the 20 major states, contested by both parties. In terms of the individual elections, however, the vote share of INC, compared to that of BJP, candidates was significantly larger in the 1989, 1991, and 2009 elections and significantly lower in the 1998, 1999, and 2014 …show more content…
To recapitulate: of the total of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, 204 (or 37.6 percent) are— – and have been since the 1996 Lok Sabha election— - in the seven Hindi speaking (HS) states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh and, of these 204 constituencies, respectively, 40 and 80 are in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The HS states are of particular importance for the BJP since a large number of its contested constituencies are from these states: in 2014, nearly 45 percent (192 out of 428) of the constituencies contested by the BJP were from the HS states. These states are also important for the INC but to a lesser degree: 34 percent (158 out of 464) of the constituencies contested by the INC in 2014 were from the HS
The SURE model also predicts the INC and BJP vote shares when they are incumbents and challengers. In making these predictions the methodology that was used took the following form. Using the coefficients of the INC equation (shown in the first panel of Table 5.1), the predicted INC vote share in each of these constituencies was computed and, then, averaged, first when it was supposed that all the INC candidates in the 2,684 constituencies were incumbents and next when it was supposed that all the INC candidates in the 2,684 constituencies were challengers. Since these two sets of predictions differ only in the fact that in the first prediction the INC was assumed to the incumbent, and in the second it was …show more content…
In particular, Table 5.5 compares: (i) the predicted vote shares of all INC candidates with all BJP candidates (labelled I + C in Table 5.5); (ii) the predicted vote shares of INC and BJP incumbents; (iii) the predicted vote shares of INC and BJP challengers. Columns 2 and 3 show, respectively, the relevant INC and BJP vote shares with the difference in column 4 and the its standard error in column 5; column 6 shows the z-value (computed as the difference divided by the standard error), and column 7 records the probability of obtaining, under the null hypothesis that the difference is zero, a value greater than the observed z.
Aggregating over all candidates, incumbents and challengers, and over all eight elections from 1989 to 2014, there was no significant difference between the vote shares obtained by INC (32.3 percent) and BJP candidates (31.5 percent) in the 2,684 constituencies, in the 20 major states, contested by both parties. In terms of the individual elections, however, the vote share of INC, compared to that of BJP, candidates was significantly larger in the 1989, 1991, and 2009 elections and significantly lower in the 1998, 1999, and 2014 …show more content…
To recapitulate: of the total of 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, 204 (or 37.6 percent) are— – and have been since the 1996 Lok Sabha election— - in the seven Hindi speaking (HS) states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Uttar Pradesh and, of these 204 constituencies, respectively, 40 and 80 are in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The HS states are of particular importance for the BJP since a large number of its contested constituencies are from these states: in 2014, nearly 45 percent (192 out of 428) of the constituencies contested by the BJP were from the HS states. These states are also important for the INC but to a lesser degree: 34 percent (158 out of 464) of the constituencies contested by the INC in 2014 were from the HS