As an advocate for rationalism, I’ve recently been troubled by a conviction formed by countless hours at the poker table: that there is something to gut instinct. This does not sit well with me, since I strongly value the use of evidence and reason in forming beliefs. And the conviction is strong even though I’m fully cognisant that it’s based on anecdotal evidence, a sample of one person’s experience, and is possibly subject to a litany of confirmation biases. Upon investigating this further, I’ve discovered a sample of recent psychological research suggesting that gut instinct, or “intuition”, plays a far larger role in decision making than previously thought.
I’m a semi-serious poker player. I played a lot online “back in the day”: as poker players refer to the pre-Full-Tilt-collapse era of poker. Since then, I’ve …show more content…
Looking over at my opponent he leans back on his chair and a very small smile appears on his face. He acknowledges a friend who’s watching. I feel sick. Poker commentators refer to sort of situation as a “throw up” spot. I think about the decision for a while, and eventually decide that, since my opponent is a good player, it’s more likely that he’s trying to induce a call rather than a fold. I have competing instincts in this hand: I want to fold to stay alive in the tournament, but I realise there’s a good chance he’s bluffing. Further, I have a slight premonition of him showing his cards if it’s a bluff. (If I fold he does not have to show his cards).
Finally, I fold, and he turns over the bluff - 72 of diamonds - and everyone gasps. I leave to get a cup of coffee feeling like quite the donkey. People tell me not to worry about is as I pass.
Soon after, I read a very interesting book on poker tells, and discovered that the “little smile” is indeed a common tell for a big bluff. This has proven useful in a number of occasions, as a checklist of things to look for when I suspect a