Voter Turnout Vs. Democratic Voters Essay

1912 Words Dec 15th, 2016 8 Pages
On November 9, 2016 many United States citizens woke up to the shocking news that their next president would be Donald Trump, someone that countless people thought was a complete and utter joke of a candidate until he actually did the unthinkable and won. Soon after the election, many of the large polling services that predicted the incorrect outcome were quick to point to the obvious increase in turnout from the rural sections of America, specifically the Rust Belt states Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Ohio. While there certainly was an ethnocentrically driven increase in white voter turnout throughout the working class regions of these key states, the more significant factor contributing to Hillary Clinton’s defeat was the lack of voter turnout from the historically Democratic counties containing large urban centers. This discrepancy between the voter turnout in 2012 compared to 2016 can be primarily attributed to the retrospective voting theory as it pertains to the Democratic voters; punishing or rewarding an incumbent candidate based on the successes or failures of the party member he or she is replacing. The significant number of voters that either chose to stay home or vote for an alternative candidate with no reasonable chance to win is effectively what cost Hillary Clinton the electoral college votes necessary to win the presidential election.
The failure of the Democratic candidacy can be traced back to the crucial Rust Belt states that Hillary…

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