Therefore, these results do not necessarily represent the financial predictions for Vaxxas and the Nanopatch accurately. Based on the model, the net present value (NPV) for Vaxxas is -$210,196,731. While a NPV of negative $210 million sound alarming, the main reason for such a large negative is FDA approval costs. Aside from the fact that the model is not perfect for Vaxxas, even half of this NPV is concerning for Vaxxas’ market future. Likewise, as seen in Figure 19 and Figure , because Vaxxas is expected to be in hundreds of millions of dollars in debt ten years after market, there is no calculatable payback period within ten years post market.
A large amount of investor funding and an increase in sales from the estimate may play a factor in raising that number to a more positive value and allow Vaxxas to be more profitable. However, at the rate shown in Figure 19, it will take well over ten years before they stop losing money, and much longer before they begin to make a profit. One way to combat the massive loss is to sell at a higher rate than the model predicts as shown in Figure