"Thresholds of Catastrophe"
In the last 540 million years, five mass extinction events have occurred on the Earth. Each one caused massive disturbance of the normal cycling of carbon through the oceans and atmosphere. From thousands to millions of years, these events coincided with the extermination of marine species worldwide.
Today, many scientists speculate about the potential effects on the carbon cycle of the current climate change we're currently experiencing. Could it push the world into a sixth mass extinction? We've already seen a steady rise in carbon dioxide emissions since the 19th century, but interpolating the recent spike of carbon into a diagnosis of imminent mass extinction is no easy task. The difficulty lies in the dissimilar …show more content…
National Archives
But Professor of the MIT Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Daniel Rothman recently analyzed similar changes in the carbon cycle in the past 540 million years, including all five mass extinction events. He demarcated "thresholds of catastrophe" in the the carbon cycle, beyond which the Earth would catapult into an unstable environment that would cause mass extinction.
Published in Science Advances, Rothman suggests that mass extinction is triggered after two critical thresholds come to pass: Long timescale changes in the carbon cycle cause mass extinctions if said changes progress faster than global ecosystems can adapt. Extinction is more likely over shorter timescales, but the size and magnitude of global climate change will correlate to the probability of a mass extinction event.
According to Rothman, with the recent spike in carbon dioxide emissions over a shorter timescale, the sixth mass extinction will occur if a critical quantity of carbon makes its way into our oceans. He calculates this amount to be about 310 gigatons, which he estimates to be roughly the same amount of carbon that human civilization will have added to the oceans by the year
In the last 540 million years, five mass extinction events have occurred on the Earth. Each one caused massive disturbance of the normal cycling of carbon through the oceans and atmosphere. From thousands to millions of years, these events coincided with the extermination of marine species worldwide.
Today, many scientists speculate about the potential effects on the carbon cycle of the current climate change we're currently experiencing. Could it push the world into a sixth mass extinction? We've already seen a steady rise in carbon dioxide emissions since the 19th century, but interpolating the recent spike of carbon into a diagnosis of imminent mass extinction is no easy task. The difficulty lies in the dissimilar …show more content…
National Archives
But Professor of the MIT Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Daniel Rothman recently analyzed similar changes in the carbon cycle in the past 540 million years, including all five mass extinction events. He demarcated "thresholds of catastrophe" in the the carbon cycle, beyond which the Earth would catapult into an unstable environment that would cause mass extinction.
Published in Science Advances, Rothman suggests that mass extinction is triggered after two critical thresholds come to pass: Long timescale changes in the carbon cycle cause mass extinctions if said changes progress faster than global ecosystems can adapt. Extinction is more likely over shorter timescales, but the size and magnitude of global climate change will correlate to the probability of a mass extinction event.
According to Rothman, with the recent spike in carbon dioxide emissions over a shorter timescale, the sixth mass extinction will occur if a critical quantity of carbon makes its way into our oceans. He calculates this amount to be about 310 gigatons, which he estimates to be roughly the same amount of carbon that human civilization will have added to the oceans by the year