The scientific concepts of game theory, Rational Actor and Governmental Politics Models, along with Thomas Kuhn’s theory on scientific crises, can help describe and explain the national security issue of anticipating a nuclear armed Iran. First, game theory can aid in deducing behavior where players, will seek to maximize their utility and where information is the key to succeed. Secondly, the Rational Actor and Organizational Behavior Models will aid in describing systemic and state levels of Iran’s actions regarding its suspected nuclear weapons program. Lastly, Thomas Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions, especially when crises arise, will aid in understanding how scientific methods may shift from previous theories used to describe nuclear
…show more content…
Game theory can help identify possible strengths and weaknesses regarding Iran, and the United States (US), and make estimates about possible behaviors. For example, assuming Iran and the US act rationally, both would seek to maximize their utility and both would participate in bargaining by using bluffs and threats. Both would also accept a certain level of risk pertaining to their desired objectives. Iran could be in a unique position to accept a higher level as risk as information on their nuclear capability is still highly secretive, therefore its bargaining power is enhanced by bluffing about producing a nuclear weapon. Alternatively, the United States, may have to accept either a risk averse or a risk accepting level. If the US either falls trap to Iran’s bluff, or information about their nuclear capabilities is accurate, it may decide to capitulate to lower the possibility of an all-out conflict. However, if the US does not fall for the bluff, or knows Iran’s true nuclear capability, then it could decide to move to a level of risk accepting, or to “call out” Iran’s bluff and maximize its gain over a deceitful Iran. Game theory is a powerful tool in helping identify all types of …show more content…
While Game theory, RAM, and OBM can only work if both players are acting rationally, Kuhn’s theory could help in developing new paradigms that deal with an irrational actor in the international realm. In 2006, the United Nations (UN) imposed sanctions against the Iranian government to deter and punish them for trying to obtain nuclear weapon and missile technology. The US government, as well as the European Union, have also imposed sanctions of their own with the hope of deterring Iran further. Analysts would argue that if Iran was acting in a rational manner, that it would submit to the sanctions, to restore its economy and reap the full benefits of compliance. However, despite the imposition of sanctions, Iran has continued to defy and move forward with its intentions, regardless of the economic losses sustained. Iran has shown that it can act in an irrational manner to pursue its goals. This type of crisis could allow for new scientific methods to be created to comprehend Iran’s behavior. If a new method could be created, it would benefit analysts by aiding in applying fresh ideas to counter Iran’s irrational behavior of ignoring sanctions and its continued effort to obtain nuclear
Game theory can help identify possible strengths and weaknesses regarding Iran, and the United States (US), and make estimates about possible behaviors. For example, assuming Iran and the US act rationally, both would seek to maximize their utility and both would participate in bargaining by using bluffs and threats. Both would also accept a certain level of risk pertaining to their desired objectives. Iran could be in a unique position to accept a higher level as risk as information on their nuclear capability is still highly secretive, therefore its bargaining power is enhanced by bluffing about producing a nuclear weapon. Alternatively, the United States, may have to accept either a risk averse or a risk accepting level. If the US either falls trap to Iran’s bluff, or information about their nuclear capabilities is accurate, it may decide to capitulate to lower the possibility of an all-out conflict. However, if the US does not fall for the bluff, or knows Iran’s true nuclear capability, then it could decide to move to a level of risk accepting, or to “call out” Iran’s bluff and maximize its gain over a deceitful Iran. Game theory is a powerful tool in helping identify all types of …show more content…
While Game theory, RAM, and OBM can only work if both players are acting rationally, Kuhn’s theory could help in developing new paradigms that deal with an irrational actor in the international realm. In 2006, the United Nations (UN) imposed sanctions against the Iranian government to deter and punish them for trying to obtain nuclear weapon and missile technology. The US government, as well as the European Union, have also imposed sanctions of their own with the hope of deterring Iran further. Analysts would argue that if Iran was acting in a rational manner, that it would submit to the sanctions, to restore its economy and reap the full benefits of compliance. However, despite the imposition of sanctions, Iran has continued to defy and move forward with its intentions, regardless of the economic losses sustained. Iran has shown that it can act in an irrational manner to pursue its goals. This type of crisis could allow for new scientific methods to be created to comprehend Iran’s behavior. If a new method could be created, it would benefit analysts by aiding in applying fresh ideas to counter Iran’s irrational behavior of ignoring sanctions and its continued effort to obtain nuclear