The 1860 presidential election led to the dominance of the Republican and Democratic parties, with no major changes in the electoral and political system ever since. As a result, tracking previous elections can possibly give rise to prospective clues, cycles or dynamic regularities (Norpoth 1995). In this essay, the author uses the framework of the Primary Model to understand a few of these prospective clues and dynamic regularities.
The author initially describes the steps in a presidential campaign. Following this, the author provides a conceptual framework of the Primary Model, including an explanation and reasoning of the model’s equation and variables. Upon establishing this framework, the author studies the factors that are useful to …show more content…
Its vote equation is as follows,
where is the Democratic Party’s two-party vote-share, is the Democratic Party’s two-party vote-share in the last election, is the Democratic Party’s two-party vote-share in the second to last election, is the Democratic candidate’s adjusted primary support, is the Republican candidate’s adjusted primary support, are the respective parameters and is the partisan baseline (PollyVote). It is pertinent to note that the model predicts the Democratic Party’s vote-share, and hence, to calculate the Republican Party’s vote-share the result must be inverted ( (Norpoth 2016).
The positively signed estimate of indicates that the incumbent can expect to regain the vote received in the previous election, while the negative sign of the estimate for indicates that the winning party will encounter a sharp reversal in votes received in the election second to the last (Norpoth 1995). Both the effects are nearly equal in strength (Norpoth …show more content…
For example, former President Obama overcame the defeat in the New Hampshire primary with a victory in the South Carolina primary shortly after, where African-Americans constitute nearly half of the Democratic electorate. Similarly, Hillary Clinton was a favourite of African-Americans during the 2016 presidential election, overwhelmingly defeating Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina primary, upon losing to him in New Hampshire. As a result, the South Carolina primary was included in the Primary Model’s 2016 calculation, in addition to New Hampshire, by taking an average of the candidate’s support in both primaries (Norpoth
The author initially describes the steps in a presidential campaign. Following this, the author provides a conceptual framework of the Primary Model, including an explanation and reasoning of the model’s equation and variables. Upon establishing this framework, the author studies the factors that are useful to …show more content…
Its vote equation is as follows,
where is the Democratic Party’s two-party vote-share, is the Democratic Party’s two-party vote-share in the last election, is the Democratic Party’s two-party vote-share in the second to last election, is the Democratic candidate’s adjusted primary support, is the Republican candidate’s adjusted primary support, are the respective parameters and is the partisan baseline (PollyVote). It is pertinent to note that the model predicts the Democratic Party’s vote-share, and hence, to calculate the Republican Party’s vote-share the result must be inverted ( (Norpoth 2016).
The positively signed estimate of indicates that the incumbent can expect to regain the vote received in the previous election, while the negative sign of the estimate for indicates that the winning party will encounter a sharp reversal in votes received in the election second to the last (Norpoth 1995). Both the effects are nearly equal in strength (Norpoth …show more content…
For example, former President Obama overcame the defeat in the New Hampshire primary with a victory in the South Carolina primary shortly after, where African-Americans constitute nearly half of the Democratic electorate. Similarly, Hillary Clinton was a favourite of African-Americans during the 2016 presidential election, overwhelmingly defeating Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina primary, upon losing to him in New Hampshire. As a result, the South Carolina primary was included in the Primary Model’s 2016 calculation, in addition to New Hampshire, by taking an average of the candidate’s support in both primaries (Norpoth