The RCP8.5 Future of Sub-Saharan Africa and High Northern Latitudes by 2100
1. Introduction
1.1 RCPs and RCP8.5 RCPs is short for Representative Concentration Pathways, which are a set of four new scenarios defined by their approximate total radiative forcing in 2100 relative 1750: 2.6 W/m2 for RCP2.6, 4.5 W/m2 for RCP4.5, 6.0 W/m2 for RCP6.0, and 8.5 W/m2 for RCP8.5, for the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC. RCP2.6 represents a mitigation scenario resulting in a very low forcing level. RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 stand for two stabilization scenarios. RCP8.5 indicates very high greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, the RCPs can represent a series of climate policies in the 21st century. For RCP2.6, radiative forcing peaks and declines before 2100. For RCP4.5, it stabilizes by 2100 whereas it does not peak by 2100 for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. It is projected that the prescribed CO2 concentration will be 421 ppm for RCP2.6, 538 ppm for RCP4.5, 670 ppm for RCP6.0, and 936 ppm for RCP8.5 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and variability due to already existing stresses (e.g., ecosystem degradation, poverty and political conflicts) and low adaptive capacity. Climate change is projected to affect human well-being in sub-Saharan Africa through increased water stress, reduced …show more content…
However, there are many opportunities to improve adaptation potential, like technological response (e.g., irrigation, stress-tolerant crops and observation systems), increasing smallholder access to credit and diversifying livelihoods, and strengthening institutions to support agriculture (e.g., early warning systems) and gender-oriented
1. Introduction
1.1 RCPs and RCP8.5 RCPs is short for Representative Concentration Pathways, which are a set of four new scenarios defined by their approximate total radiative forcing in 2100 relative 1750: 2.6 W/m2 for RCP2.6, 4.5 W/m2 for RCP4.5, 6.0 W/m2 for RCP6.0, and 8.5 W/m2 for RCP8.5, for the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC. RCP2.6 represents a mitigation scenario resulting in a very low forcing level. RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 stand for two stabilization scenarios. RCP8.5 indicates very high greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, the RCPs can represent a series of climate policies in the 21st century. For RCP2.6, radiative forcing peaks and declines before 2100. For RCP4.5, it stabilizes by 2100 whereas it does not peak by 2100 for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. It is projected that the prescribed CO2 concentration will be 421 ppm for RCP2.6, 538 ppm for RCP4.5, 670 ppm for RCP6.0, and 936 ppm for RCP8.5 by 2100. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change and variability due to already existing stresses (e.g., ecosystem degradation, poverty and political conflicts) and low adaptive capacity. Climate change is projected to affect human well-being in sub-Saharan Africa through increased water stress, reduced …show more content…
However, there are many opportunities to improve adaptation potential, like technological response (e.g., irrigation, stress-tolerant crops and observation systems), increasing smallholder access to credit and diversifying livelihoods, and strengthening institutions to support agriculture (e.g., early warning systems) and gender-oriented