Multiple Predictions In Business

1439 Words 6 Pages
Putting eggs in multiple baskets is obviously not literal, but it paints a picture for managing a business during uncertainty and turbulence. In any situation where the future is an important focus in business, which should be always, just one prediction will not be enough most of the time. Actually, that one prediction that a manager will make about his business could very well be wrong. The future always unfolds differently. Therefore, exploring multiple predictions is a great idea. Placing “small bets on a variety of options . . . is the way any truly innovative process works” (Peppers), and innovation is an almost necessary part of managing a business. Placing large bets on one future outcome is exactly like gambling. How often does a big …show more content…
This piece of information is important to note, since multiple factors could have caused the economic problems referenced in Pethokoukis’s article. In relating back to the beginning of this paragraph, multiple small predictions are more important to invest in than one big prediction. When managing during uncertain and turbulent times, many factors could be evaluated in determining how to get through that tough situation. That manager needs to ask himself or herself “what factors are at play? How should I dissect my current environment and take each part piece by piece? Is one factor at fault? Or are several factors playing together to cause this uncertainty and turbulence? ”. As Nozid states, “environmental characteristics that influence uncertainty are the number of factors that affect the organization and the extent to which those factors change”. In other words, multiple factors and how they change are the extent to which uncertainty, and of course turbulence, will occur. A good manager will place these smaller bets and figure out how to gear his or her business towards sustainable …show more content…
Unfortunately, not all managers and owners practice that belief. Doing the right thing is always important for a business, as well as in each person’s personal life. In trying times, doing the right thing is ever just as important. Being openly honest is not always easy, but “as long as others find you trustable, you’ll never be on your own” (Peppers). Communication and trust are interchangeable; one doesn’t exist without the other. Making mistakes can also damage trust. A person who is wrong frequently is less trusting than a person who is right frequently. Making smart and careful decisions can greatly reduce the amount of mistakes made, and can also build up reputations and the strong base of trust. Take, for example, the bike profitability example from earlier. Instead of taking the time to do research on operating leverage, suppose the individual makes a quick judgment call on what the results of next month’s profit will be. Assume the numbers stay the same: a 10% expected increase in sales and a 20% expected increase in profit. The person making the quick call could very well say that profit has to increase by 30% next month. This is an overestimate and could damage trust. If a mistake is significant enough, then it could cause job loss. In short, focusing on making all the right decisions and being openly honest can only help a

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