However, nothing is lost for the Republicans, they can still rely on the 3rd term penalty. This 3rd term penalty just reflects the fear of the population, in leaving a unique party ruling for so long; in other words, the public just feels that the other party also deserves an opportunity to show what they are capable of (McLaughlin). According to the data collected from the Federalist, the party of a President that served for two terms, is most likely to lose the next elections (McLaughlin). Although, history seems to be against the Democratic party, they still seem to have a greater chance of winning the popular vote, based on the name recognition of Hilary Clinton and the latest increase of Obama’s …show more content…
Let’s analyze what the current polls says about the candidates. According to Real Clear Politics, Hilary Clinton is winning the primary election within the Democratic party, with a margin of 10.8% against Bernie Sanders (“2016 Democratic Presidential Nomination”). This shows, that Clinton has a clear advantage against Sanders, and therefore, she will the Democratic nominee in the final run to the White House. On the Republican party, Donald Trump is leading with about 46.5 % of the percent of the votes and with the waiver of Ted Cruz from the elections, Donald Trump will probably be the Republican nominee for the election (“2016 Republican Presidential Nomination”). So, these polls show that the the run for the White House will probably be between Hilary Clinton and Donald Trump; and, currently Hilary is winning with a margin of 1.5 % the General Election polls (“General Election: Trump vs Clinton”). This margin cannot be considered absolute, and with the control over the swing states still being disputed, none of the candidates can be considered safe; but, by now Hillary has the