The GJP results are amazing. The heterogeneous GJP forecasters are consistently more accurate than teams of homogeneous intelligent officers, even though intelligence officers have access to classified information. Although CQ satisfies Mayr’s condition for evolution in that the diversity of contributors is guaranteed, implicitly some sort of selection will take place. Every group is at risk of a tyranny of the majority. This happens when a majority of the members suppress a dissenting minority. Tetlock and his colleagues identified this potential weakness in CQ and devised personality-trait tests, training methods and other tools to select participants with less cognitive bias in order to decrease the likelihood that dissimilar, minority opinions
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This is called the illusion of invulnerability, which means the in-group drastically overrates its own intelligence and decision-making ability, because it sees no other benchmark to gauge itself. There are indeed benchmarks, but the in-group discounts or completely ignores information from the out-group. This produces an artificial strength that can trigger a dysfunctional dynamic. The in-group is not geographically isolated from the world, just mentally disconnected from it. It knows that out-groups do exist and it has access to dissenting information, yet its social identity is so strong that it assertively dismisses and even acts against outsiders in the form of verbal assaults and possibly …show more content…
According to Heider, we are all hobby psychologists and we tend to assign the actions of others to character or personality (internal), but when we examine our own behavior, we usually link it to some (external) environmental or situational factor. If someone cuts us off on the roadway, we tend to think that person is rude or stupid, but when we cut someone off, it´s because the sun was in our eyes or the other driver was in our blind spot. In essence, we usually think people who think and act differently have flawed characters, whereas we are simply responding to factors outside our
This is called the illusion of invulnerability, which means the in-group drastically overrates its own intelligence and decision-making ability, because it sees no other benchmark to gauge itself. There are indeed benchmarks, but the in-group discounts or completely ignores information from the out-group. This produces an artificial strength that can trigger a dysfunctional dynamic. The in-group is not geographically isolated from the world, just mentally disconnected from it. It knows that out-groups do exist and it has access to dissenting information, yet its social identity is so strong that it assertively dismisses and even acts against outsiders in the form of verbal assaults and possibly …show more content…
According to Heider, we are all hobby psychologists and we tend to assign the actions of others to character or personality (internal), but when we examine our own behavior, we usually link it to some (external) environmental or situational factor. If someone cuts us off on the roadway, we tend to think that person is rude or stupid, but when we cut someone off, it´s because the sun was in our eyes or the other driver was in our blind spot. In essence, we usually think people who think and act differently have flawed characters, whereas we are simply responding to factors outside our