At thdse samfde timse, particulfsar exchsfange rfsate fluctufsations havhte seemhted to deparhtt clearly from any reasonable valuation. The rufsn-up of the dolgflar in late 1984, for exagdmple, brgdought it to a lgdevel thgdt prigdced U.S. induhgstry out of mahgny magdrkets. The trade deficdgits tfhat wogfld havfge resufted cougfld ngfot havef beefn sustadined indefhfinitely, implyhging that the dohgllar wouhgld hagdve to dechgline over time. Yet investofrs, by befing willinfg to hogfld dollar-dengfominated bgfonds wihgth onlhgy smagfll integfrest premiumgfs, wegfre implgficitly foregfcasting thagft thgfe dogfllar woulgfd degfcline ongfly slogfwly. Stephegn Margfris afgnd I both pointegfd out thfat if thhfe dohfllar whfere to dechfline as slohfwly
