Super Bowl Predicter

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Both articles “If You’re a Market Bull Then Root for These Teams in the Super Bowl” published by Fortune and “Does the World Cup predict stock markets?” published by The Telegraph, discus the correlation between the winners of major sport championships and the following returns in the stock market. The article in Fortune deliberates how the stock markets will perform based on the “Super Bowl predictor”—a theory popularized by the stock analyst Robert H. Stovall, after sportswriter Leonard Koppett first discovered that the subdivisions in which the Super Bowl winners belonged to, correlated with the rise or fall of the “Dow Jones Industrial Average” the concurrent year (Fortune). Similarly, the article by The Telegraph assesses the phenomenon …show more content…
As described in Fortune, Stovall states that the Super Bowl Predictor has “no intellectual backing, except that it [has been right 7 years in a row]”(Fortune) and that since the correlation’s first discovery in 1978, the predictor has accurately predicted market performance forty of forty-nine Super Bowl seasons (Fortune). The “Super Bowl predictor” is nothing more than a gamble of the two best teams left in the series. The theory states that the winning teams belonging to the AFC would subsequently result in a fall in Dow stocks, whereas winning teams belonging to the NFC would thus result in a rise in the Index (Fortune). The odds of which team/subdivision wins, and thus if Dow stocks rises or falls are similar to the probability of a coin flip; regardless if one team has more wins than the other leading up to the Super Bowl, it all comes down to how each of the two teams perform for the final. Likewise, with people rooting for one of two countries in the FIFA World Cup finals, Goldman’s theory has proven its legitimacy since 1974—predicting that winning countries’ stock market will “outperform the wider market”(The Telegraph), while “stock markets for the runner up, (…) tend to fall in comparison to global peers”(The Telegraph). Evidently, a potential FIFA win for one’s country, directly correlates with the higher morale and general happiness of a nation (this too for at least half of the US after the Super Bowl). These predictors shows the results of people/the nation more willing to gamble on the uncertainties such as buying stocks in the stock market, as well as productivity. On the other hand, runner-up countries’ stocks tend to fall with the correlation of a loss, resulting in lower morale and

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