Sanjina Essay

6790 Words Jul 23rd, 2012 28 Pages
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World Economic Situation and Prospects
Executive Summary



Executive Summary
Global economic prospects for 2012 and 2013
The world economy is on the brink of another major downturn
The world economy is teetering on the brink of another major downturn. Output growth has already slowed considerably during 2011 and anaemic growth is expected during 2012 and 2013. The problems stalking the global economy are multiple and interconnected. The most pressing challenges lie in addressing the continued jobs crisis and declining prospects for economic growth, especially in the developed countries. As unemployment remains high, at
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Their problems could easily feed into each other and lead to another global recession. Developing countries, which had rebounded strongly from the global recession of 2009, would be hit through trade and financial channels.

Faltering growth with heightened risk for a double-dip recession
Premised on a set of relatively optimistic conditions, including the assumptions that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe will in effect be contained within one or just a few small economies and that those debt problems can be worked out in more or less orderly fashion, growth of world gross product (WGP) is forecast to reach 2.6 per cent in the baseline outlook for 2012 and 3.2 per cent for 2013. However, failure of policymakers, especially those in Europe and the United States, to address the jobs crisis and prevent sovereign debt distress and financial sector fragility from escalating would send the global economy into another recession. In an alternative downside scenario, growth of WGP would decelerate to 0.5 per cent in 2012, implying a decline in average per capita income for the world. More benign outcomes for employment and sustainable growth worldwide would require much more forceful and internationally concerted action than that embodied in current policy stances. Global output growth could be pushed back up to about 4.0 per cent in 2012 and 2013, but

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