Representation of Public Opinion: Probability and Nonprobability Survey Literary Digest had correctly predicted the presidential election of four candidates using a straw poll. In the 1936 election Literary Digest predicted Republican Alfred Landon would beat incumbent Roosevelt by a landslide. The poll used data from its own users, a list of registered automobile owners, and telephone users. The Digest population was two things; wealthy in the middle of the Great Depression and Republican. The poll had effectively excluded the poor and Democrats. The false prediction of the 1936 election by the Literary Digest ushered in the era of modern public opinion polls, as George Gallup correctly predicted Franklin Roosevelt win using a probability
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These meetings have historically been used to allow the public to interact with their elected official and give the elected official an opportunity to gauge the public’s reception of them and their policy. There are two things that Scott Keeter points out in Public Opinion Polling and its Problems, that “methodological challenges” to telephone surveys that just aren’t present in town hall and candidate forums. One is how well surveys “capture the public attitudes on sensitive issues” and the second is how well a survey can capture the “degree of political engagement” of the public. Nonrandom samples like town hall and candidate forums, open up the floor to have sensitive issue to be discussed. Being that in surveys the interviewer is asking about the sensitive topic instead of the individual bringing up the topic themselves. In an interview people will hide their views if they feel that they may be judged but the interviewer. It is proven that men will give more feminist sentiments when interviewed by a woman and women will give more traditional views when interviewed by men. This element of judgement is not felt during town halls because these individuals are seen as neighbors and friends. As for the degree of engagement it can be assumed the individuals who attend town hall and candidate forums are the most intense …show more content…
However, he argues that this is not a reason for politicians to ignore the public opinion. “It is surely sufficient for them to provide general guidelines for public policy or to render opinions on the effects of current policies. Citizens can be sound judges of policy, even if they are not originators.” He further argues that polling and other means of communication between the public and politicians, like town hall meetings and forums are equally important. Margolis believes that the individuals who participate in town halls, lobbying, and letter writing “feel more intensely about these opinions then those who merely reply to a poll…those who hold their opinions intensely may also be better informed.” He further argues that politicians should get the “opinion and interest regarding an issue, political decision makers may need to weigh the intensity of feelings and the knowledge of those expressing opinions.” Based on Margolis argument the candidates can gain value information about what people say they want from the government based on the medium used to collect the information. For the telephone survey, the information maybe be biased because of the possibility of outside effects that will influence the
These meetings have historically been used to allow the public to interact with their elected official and give the elected official an opportunity to gauge the public’s reception of them and their policy. There are two things that Scott Keeter points out in Public Opinion Polling and its Problems, that “methodological challenges” to telephone surveys that just aren’t present in town hall and candidate forums. One is how well surveys “capture the public attitudes on sensitive issues” and the second is how well a survey can capture the “degree of political engagement” of the public. Nonrandom samples like town hall and candidate forums, open up the floor to have sensitive issue to be discussed. Being that in surveys the interviewer is asking about the sensitive topic instead of the individual bringing up the topic themselves. In an interview people will hide their views if they feel that they may be judged but the interviewer. It is proven that men will give more feminist sentiments when interviewed by a woman and women will give more traditional views when interviewed by men. This element of judgement is not felt during town halls because these individuals are seen as neighbors and friends. As for the degree of engagement it can be assumed the individuals who attend town hall and candidate forums are the most intense …show more content…
However, he argues that this is not a reason for politicians to ignore the public opinion. “It is surely sufficient for them to provide general guidelines for public policy or to render opinions on the effects of current policies. Citizens can be sound judges of policy, even if they are not originators.” He further argues that polling and other means of communication between the public and politicians, like town hall meetings and forums are equally important. Margolis believes that the individuals who participate in town halls, lobbying, and letter writing “feel more intensely about these opinions then those who merely reply to a poll…those who hold their opinions intensely may also be better informed.” He further argues that politicians should get the “opinion and interest regarding an issue, political decision makers may need to weigh the intensity of feelings and the knowledge of those expressing opinions.” Based on Margolis argument the candidates can gain value information about what people say they want from the government based on the medium used to collect the information. For the telephone survey, the information maybe be biased because of the possibility of outside effects that will influence the