Prediction In The Signal And The Noise By Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver is about making an assessment based on future outcomes. Prediction is indispensable to our everyday lives. The biggest problem with predicting about the future is even though you are forecasting the future the data it is based off is usually from the past. Just because you are able predict the past doesn’t mean you are able to predict the future. Silver demonstrates in this book how many prediction practices have been flawed and suggest ways that might possibly improve them.

Wise predictions are formed from attention to detail, self-awareness, and humility. Lack of humility causes us to feel more certain about something and make quick decisions. The lack of self-awareness is a problem, because we tend to make predictions that we want to hear, creating a bias. Lack of attention to detail causes us to miss important statistics or key points. All of these points combined create for the most accurate possible outcome with the information given.

The first chapter discusses financial crash and why the predictions were incorrect. The most important factor not taken into consideration was the model of uncertainty. Many people were unable to look at …show more content…
Silver explains whether September eleventh was truly random or if the government should have assumed something was going to happen and have a plan. It is nearly impossible to purely predict when a terrorist attack will occur, due to the amount of different types and possibilities of one occurring. Silver also discusses how to make a prediction about the number of attacks and fatalities in result of the attacks. The book concludes with explaining that thinking in terms of possibilities and understanding that your predictions may come out as incorrect is the best way to approach a prediction. It is very easy to assume something is flawless and will always be the same, when the reality of it is, anything can change at any