Power Shift In The American Civil War

To start off the discussion, it is almost safe to conclude that main perpetrator, or instigator for the American Civil War was the looming threat of a power shift which according to realist is the most fundamental cause of wars (Gilpin 1981). In the article when do power shifts lead to war?, Woosang Kim and James D. Morrow defines a power transition as the the point in which a rising power surpasses those who are in decline. The occurrence of war is only likely if both parties are willing to fight, and such willingness occurs when either party believes that they have sufficient capabilities, and that they have a clear understanding of the risk and what its alternative would be. Usually a party's willingness to take risk is dictated by the belief that their capabilities might prove superior to the opposition (Kim, 1992). Kim and …show more content…
(kim,1992:4) . In world politics Organski suggest that the wars pertaining to power shift are initiated by the weaker but rising power. Levy goes into more detail and argues that the rising state would only contest the status quo after it has evaluated the possible responses it will receive from the established power. If the rising state believes that the declining state will the event that the declining state is expected to give in, the rising state will then choose to push its movement forward and make demands. However; if the declining state is expected to resist the rising power would have to evaluate if the alternative (war) is worth the struggle. The rising state would have to be sure that they can defeat the established power in its current state and yet have enough capabilities reserved for the possibility of the declining power making demands in the future. If either of these would not be in the favor of the rising power, war might appear less attractive, thus lowering the chance of war