On June 15, 1991, Mt. Pinatubo erupted. Volcanologists successfully predicted the eruption and issued a warning ahead of time, which allowed minimal casualties. The stakes for failing to predict an eruption accurately are high. If one fails to predict an eruption and it happens then lives and property can be lost; however, if one does predict and eruption and it does not happen then one’s personal reputation can be damaged or destroyed. In the case of Mt. Pinatubo, the U.S. volcanologists weighed four pieces of evidence prior to recommending immediate evacuation for Clark military base and the surrounding area. Two pieces of evidence, that connect with each other, were a detailed examination of previous eruptions and an examination of what
